Surprise, Surprise…These Players will Finish in the Top 5!

If you havent heard yet, its fantasy football season. We are a couple weeks removed from when most drafts will take place, but alas, is there every too much information on fantasy football? With that I mind, lets discuss something everyone wish they had prior insight too. Every single year there are players that shock the system and surprise everyone with an unreal season. These players are usually “has beens” or mid-round draft picks, or Day three rookies that go completely unnoticed. Sometimes they are one year wonders (David Johnson on the tail end). Sometimes they are players who were initially great, fell back down to earth, and are thrust into the right situation. Sometimes they come out of left field. Players like this are hard to predict, but I’m going to do my best and give you four guys I believe can shoot up from their projections and make their way into the top five PPR standings at their position at the end of the season. 

QB – Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)

Ok, so this one may come as a surprise to some, but to my wrinkly brained readers, this one is obvious. Kyler Murray is primed for a big season. This may possibly be the best skill room he’s had in his career thus far: Marvin Harrison Jr, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, James Conner and Trey Benson. I’m a firm believer that this skill room will be very good. McBride finished inside the Top 10 last year at Tight End and had Kyler for only half the season. During the last five weeks of the season (in which Murray played) James Conner put up over 15 points per game. This offense is going to be dynamic, especially now that Kyler is more than a year removed from his ACL injury. When he played full seasons without injury, he has never finished below QB10. The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. gives Arizona their most skilled receiver since prime Larry Fitzgerald. Michael Wilson had a sneaky good season in 2023. Jones has some of the best hands in the NFL. With a skill room that complements itself the way this one does, there’s no reason for Murray not to replicate the type of fantasy seasons he had before his injury. After finishing as QB6 during his rookie season and QB3 in year two, there is no reason to believe that Murray can’t come back to prominence with a Top 5 finish in 2024.

RB – James Cook (Buffalo Bills)

I have no idea why people aren’t talking about him. The absence of Stefon Diggs does a lot for Cook’s ceiling. We know what his floor is as he finished as RB12 in 2023. The reason I attribute Diggs’ absence to Cook’s ascension comes in the passing game. He averaged a whopping 10.1 yards per catch last year through the air. Not too bad. With a full head of steam, Cook was one of the most efficient backs in both the running and pass catching department. I think he benefits with at least 100 targets in 2024 because of the void of Diggs and Davis. In the games Cook received over 12 carries, the Bills offense looked incredible. The foundation of their offense should start with the run game. As we all know, a good run game opens up play action, long shots and the screen game. And that starts with Cook. He should have an increased workload after establishing he’s here to stay.

WR – Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)

This position might be the most difficult one to predict. Wide Receiver is the most unpredictable position in terms of fantasy production because it’s a pass happy league. There’s room for every receiver with talent to flourish. There’s so much value in the position that you can find guys late who turn out to be solid WR2s/WR3 on your teams. So, I’m actually going to base this off of history and current situation. Garrett Wilson has been hampered by abysmal Quarterback play since he came in as a rookie. 2024 is poised to be different. Wilson was targeted over 145 times in both of his 2 seasons. With guys such as Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Chris Streveler playing quarterback during those years, Wilson finished as WR 21 and 26 respectively. Good for a WR2 finish and FLEX play. More than likely, he’ll receive the same target share if not MORE with Aaron Rodgers (an actual quarterback). Rodgers is one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. When Aaron Rodgers had his WR1 in Green Bay, the two of them consistently set records. Davante Adams had over 100 receptions in 5 seasons with A-Rod. In those five seasons, he finished top 3 three times. I think Garrett can replicate some of that success. Maybe not to the same pedigree as Adams, but with a target share that big already in this offense, it’s 100% possible. 

TE – Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons)

As of now, some experts have him close to top 5 finish, while others have him further down the list. But due to the recent injury of Rondale Moore, I think he’s now going to finish as a Top 5 TE. Pitts finally has a quarterback that can get him the ball consistently. Kirk Cousins was in the MVP discussions prior to his achilles injury last season. When Cousins played with a Tight End of Pitts’ caliber, which was TJ Hockenson, Cousins targeted him over 120 times in a full season. It’s pretty safe to say he likes that position. Pitts finished as TE6 last time he was targeted 100 times (2021), and that was with bad QB play. With the Moore injury, there’s also a world where Pitts’ target share goes up even more! Bijan is the star of that offense, but don’t get it twisted, Kirk has proven to feed his top weapons a lot, even with a crowded skill room.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Yes, last week was bad. I own that. But as it is with the theme of this weeks sleepers, it is early. We shouldn’t be throwing guys in the trash or forgetting about them because they got off to a slow start, or they may be older. It’s a long, long season. And guys may surprise you. The list of players below is a theme of that. We have rookies, veterans, and cast offs alike this week. Put your ego aside and think about these guys for a second - you’ll come to realize that they are the way to go this week if you want that “W” in your win column.

1. Matthew Stafford (QB) - LA Rams

Monday Night @ Cincinnati

Available in 66% of leagues

Going into Week 3, Stafford is available in 66% of leagues (according to sleeper). The aging quarterback seems healthy, as his start to the season has seemingly re-energized this Rams team. While he has thrown for over 600 yards this season, his touchdown production hasn’t quite made the jump yet. I think that changes this week. Over the first two weeks, the Bengals rank 28th against the pass, and if they are missing Burrow, expect them to not be playing with the same juice they normally do.

2. Kendre Miller (RB) - New Orleans Saints

Sunday Afternoon @ Green Bay

Available in 60% of leagues

After a couple of injury hiccups, its time for Kendre Miller to finally make his debut. This is the Saints final week without Alvin Kamara, but Miller will get to see a good amount of touches with NOLA putting Jamaal Williams on IR a couple of days ago with a hamstring injury. Miller will compete with Tony Jones for touches. If you’ve ever seen Isiah Pacheco run the ball, that’s what I see in Miller. He can make people miss as well as getting to the edge and using the truck stick on people. This Green Bay defense is solid, but the Falcons may have put up a blueprint last week as they ran for 211 yards against them. Expect the Saints to follow a similar gameplan.

3. Robert Woods (WR) - Houston Texans

Sunday Afternoon @ Jacksonville

Available in 70% of leagues

This sleeper has to do with one thing - target share. Over the first two contests, Woods has bottled up 19 targets and seems to be a go to option for Stroud. The last couple of games, Woods has picked up garbage time points, and with the Texans missing almost a third of their team and going against an up and coming Jaguars defense, I think garbage time points may be in order again. I’m confidently starting Woods in my FLEX spot this week.

4. Dak Prescott (QB) - Dallas Cowboys

Sunday Afternoon @ Arizona

Available in 10% of leagues

Yes, Dak Prescott may not be available via waiver wire. But I can almost guarantee he is on your bench if you have him. Simply put, the boys are going into Arizona where Daniel Jones lit it up in the 2nd half against the birds. There is a scenario where I can easily see Prescott being a QB1 this week for fantasy.

5. Kadarius Toney (WR) - Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday Afternoon vs. Chicago

Available in 44% of leagues

There was a mass exodus on Toney after the debacle that was Week 1. But even in a game where the offense struggled again last week, Toney did haul in five catches in a much better showing. If the Chiefs are going to go anywhere, Toney will need to be involved. Kansas City is going against a mess of a team in the Chicago Bears today and we’ve seen Romeo Doubs and Mike Evans succeed in consecutive weeks against this secondary. Toney is WR1 for the Chiefs, and I can see him breaking a couple of big ones in this game.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Sleepers

We are back for Week 2 for Fantasy Football Sleepers! Last week, I went 3/7, but was very happy to see Roschon Johnson come through as RB8 (according to Sleeper). We also hit on Josh Reynolds as a FLEX play and the Commanders defense who finished in the Top 10 amongst defensive scoring last week. This week we are going to get a little spicier, and we were off to a rocking start as the Thursday Night Football play of the week, D’Andre Swift, had one of the best games of his career. He finished with about 27 fantasy points, depending on your scoring, but there is no question he is a factor moving forward. As for Week 2, let’s see who has a chance to light up the scoreboard…

1. Allen Robinson - PIT (WR)

Monday Night (9/18) vs. Cleveland

Robinson used to be a stand out receiver long, long ago in a galaxy far away. Since his breakout season in Jacksonville, he has jumped around from Chicago, to LA and is now in Pittsburgh. In Week 1, Robinson put up a decent 11 points (5 catches for 64 yards) in a decent showing. Now, Diontae Johnson is out for at least a month and has a decent matchup Monday night. He led the Steelers in targets in Week 1 with 8 and came is as WR38, teetering on the cusp of a backend FLEX play. I think Robinson can be a low-end WR2 or a high FLEX play this week.

2. Hayden Hurst - CAR (TE)

Monday Night (9/18) vs. New Orleans

Hurst was far and away Bryce Young’s favorite target last week, leading Hurst to finish as TE2 in Week 1. A lot of people will stay away as Hurst has never been able to be consistent from game to game. I’m rolling the dice this week. Yes, the Saints held Chig Okonkwo to 0 catches for 0 yards last week. However, if Ryan Tannehill had the ability to throw a decent ball, that would be different. Last season, the Saints ranked 32nd against Tight Ends.

3. Green Bay Packers DST

Sunday Afternoon (9/17) @ Atlanta

To be very, very blunt - I am streaming the Packers defense across all my leagues this week. They had a dominant performance against the Chicago Bears in week 1, including a defensive touchdown by Quay Walker. The Atlanta Falcons are the NFC’s version of the Titans; meaning they have a good run game with a sub par pass game. Desmond Ridder does not scare anyone, and the Packers defense is much better than Carolina’s. I expect Green Bay to put up double digit points and get multiple turnovers.

4. Durham Smythe - MIA (TE)

Sunday Night (9/17) vs. New England

Remember when we were all saying who in the world would catch passes for the Dolphins at the Tight End spot? Well, we have our question answered. Smythe was a factor in the passing offense last week at LA, and fits the mold that Miami has been going with. He has speed. He played 100% of the snaps last week and finished as TE16. There was no other tight end that remotely seems like they will take targets away from him, and with Miami playing the Patriots (who are sure to try and take away Tyreek Hill), Smythe should have upside going into Week 2.

5. Luke Musgrave - GB (TE)

Sunday Afternoon (9/17) @ Atlanta

That’s right - I am double dipping with the Packers, and TRIPLE dipping in the tight end space. Musgrave would have had a much bigger game last week if he didn’t trip himself up near the Bears goal line. Even without scoring, Musgrave finished as TE13 in Week 1 while playing 75% of the snaps. And as we spoke about before, he is going against an Atlanta defense that let Hayden Hurst eat last week.