2023 NFL Draft - QB Rankings
Quarterbacks. They always get all the attention. No matter what type of “class” is coming in, they are always hyped up. 2023 is no different - as we have up to four quarterbacks who look like they may go in the first round in Kansas City a little less than a month away. They all offer different things too. One is very accurate, but he is too small; one is uber athletic, but can’t complete a five yard pass. A couple are too old, one comes from a long time failing system. Every quarterback is different, and every NFL situation is different.
The Carolina Panthers traded up for the first overall pick in a deal with the Chicago Bears in order to select their QB of the future. Frank Reich is now running the show in Carolina and the Panthers have been busy this off-season with skill players. Guys such as Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen and DJ Clark amongst others have joined the ranks; all in an effort to make whoever is under center come September…comfortable. The last time Reich was a head coach, he had Andrew Luck, who ultimately retired, but Reich did have success with a “generational” player such as luck. David Tipper and the Panthers are hoping to re-create that magic with Reich. But Carolina isn’t the only team looking for a quarterback in this year’s draft. The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions are just a few teams who may grab a signal caller on April 27th. So we, the collective football fan, analyze these players before they ever put on a uniform. We try to see what their tendencies are and who they will fit with and why they will/won’t succeed at the NFL level.
If you look around the country, baseball if officially back, the NBA and NHL seasons are just about to enter their postseason, and the Masters is happening this weekend. And yet, football remains king. The Quarterback remains king. Let’s dive in to my QB rankings for the 2023 NFL Draft and where we think they will end a few weeks from now.
Bryce Young - Alabama (Grade - Round 1)
Young is the most consistent quarterback in this class. The latest from the Nick Saban tree, Young prides himself on his accuracy and his football acumen. His numbers in college are through the roof (80 TDs, 12 INTs, 8,356 Yds, 65.8 Com %) and the Crimson Tide didn’t really skip a beat while he was there. There was a time, as little as a few months ago, where the SEC star was the undisputed number one pick. However, questions about his size have grown since the end of the college season and with some legitimate reason. He got sized up at the combine, and came in with almost the same exact measurables as Kyler Murray. Murray did end up going first overall to the Arizona Cardinals and has had some success with one contract extension (so far). But Murray’s bug-a-boo these last two years has been something people are worried about with Young - injuries. Some pundits feel Young is too small to be successful and maintain the longevity of success that great NFL QB’s possess.
I am disputing that theory. Young is not like Kyler Murray in any way, shape or form. Let’s get one thing straight about Kyler - he is a runner through and through. He has a strong arm, yes, but he will always be associated with his legs. Young will not be. He is always looking to extend plays, has a great deep ball, and has a knack to put the ball right where the receiver needs to be. His football IQ is very high, which in turn would translate to letting his receivers make plays instead of him using his legs and have the potential of getting hurt. And his height? No matter. He can move; he is mobile. So he can move out of the pocket and throw on the run. He can plant and fire. He can throw from the shotgun. We live in an age in Quarterbacks where height has not mattered as much as it used too. Young has all the talent to be successful in this league and then some.
No player is with their faults though. In the tape I watched, I don’t think I saw Young take one play under center. That is one thing he will need to get adjusted to (as most college QB’s do) but it may take him some time. A few times he will escape the pocket a touch early, and almost prefers the broken play at times. But I am nitpicking. Young is a stud, has a boatload of talent, and should be solid for years to come. Any team that drafts him will be happy. I wouldn't expect immediate results with him (or any of this class), but a few years from now, when we look back, we will say Young was the best of the bunch.
Team Projection: Carolina Panthers (1st Overall)
CJ Stroud - Ohio State (Grade - Round 1)
Ah, CJ Stroud. Talk about a specimen. He has the prototypical NFL build. He has the arm strength. He has arm accuracy. He is very, very good. Let’s discuss the things that make Stroud a number one pick candidate before we dissect why I think he’s a hair behind Young.
Great Touch
Excellent Escapability
Mobile
Deadly Seam Thrower
Stroud is probably the most accurate passer in this class. When he makes a good throw, you notice. He is the modern day QB that everyone should want. Ohio State put up numbers while he was the quarterback - 490 yards of offense per game, 5.5 touchdowns per game; and Stroud himself threw for 41 TDs to 6 INTs last year. For all the math deficient people, that is an inch short of an 8:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Absurd. He doesn’t run much, but he really doesn’t need to. He is great at extending plays while keeping his eyes downfield and he has great accuracy when he is throwing the ball deep. He reminds me of a modern day Ben Reothlisberger with how he plays the game. So why is behind Young?
CJ Stroud went to Ohio State, and the Ohio State offense is known for not preparing their quarterback prospects for the NFL. One thing that I noticed while watching the tape was that Stroud stuck on to his first read way. too. long. Many instances that first read was open, so it didn’t matter. But in the event that option was taken away, Stroud struggled. I highly encourage you to go and watch tape of the Northwestern game, which was Stroud’s worst game of the season by far. Northwestern’s gameplan was to take away Marvin Harrison Jr. (which they did for the most part) and let Stroud try to find other options. He struggled. A lot. When the first option is closed off and Stroud has to play on the run, it’s not pretty. I call it a drop-off from a “structured play to a broken play”. This will get better with time. Good coaching will get rid of this . For now though? I can see him struggling as a rookie in year one while he figures it out. Just look at Justin Fields passing stats through two years (not trying to waken the Fields mob). But that also brings me to my second and final point - the skill players. Stroud’s receivers the last two years included Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. Those three just happen to be the following: ROTY runner up, ROTY and the next great wide receiver who is stuck in college for one more season. Not saying that he won’t succeed, but if Stroud gets drafted to Houston, then it would be wise to pass on him in fantasy to say the least.
Let’s not miss the point though. Stroud will be a good QB. The question will be how good. He arguably has more intangibles than Young, and has the better NFL build. Would I be surprised if he goes number one? No. But what Carolina has done is telling me they want to make their move this year, and that leans me towards Young than anyone else. Stroud will probably start Day 1, and that’s a good decision. After the growing pains, watch out.
Team Projection: Houston Texans
Anthony Richardson - Florida (Grade - Round 2)
And we have come to the conundrum of our rankings. The hype man himself. I am convinced Anthony Richardson was created in a lab and is made completely of vibranium. The man has every physical tool checked off: Size, speed, arm strength, mobility, etc. He has it all. He ran a 4.43 at the NFL combine. A four…four…three. Let that sink in. His vertical jump was 40.5 inches. His broad jump was 10.9 inches. I mean c’mon man! What can’t this guy do! Well…I do have Richardson as a Round 2 grade, and I think for good reason. He is the definition of a project. He absolutely, unequivocally, should not start on day 1. He will be taken in the Top 10 because of the sheer potential alone, but if that franchise who selects him chooses to have him start right away, he will fail.
Richardson is excellent with making progressions, he is an elite runner, and has elite arm strength. He could step on the field today and throw it with the best of them. The problem is not there. And I do think that with some good coaching and sitting for a year, maybe two - he would be my bet to to come out the best of this bunch. But so much rides on where he gets picked. so much. More than any other quarterback coming out of this draft class. He was most likely told to come out this year cause he was guaranteed to get picked in round one and make a boat load of money, and that’s probably a smart move on his part; don’t want to test fate - but I believe he came out a year too early. One more year at Florida would have done him wonders I think, and he could have rivaled Caleb Williams going first overall in the 2024 draft assuming he would’ve stayed healthy. But here we are. Richardson will go in the top 10 and should sit. His biggest issue currently is his accuracy. He struggles with 10 yard outs occasionally and when you look at his statistics from this past year, they don’t blow the doors off like Young and Stroud do. His completion percentage was similar to that of Josh Allen when he was at Wyoming. And I think Josh Allen is a solid comparison in terms of what he can become. Allen, at times, still struggles with accuracy and turnovers, but he largely has overcome that. But if we look back at Allen’s first two years, people were calling him a bust because of his accuracy and turnover issues. It wasn’t until Year 3 that he started to blossom - and I don’t think it's by accident that’s the same year Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs.
“A-Rod” is the spawn of Cam Newton’s running ability and Josh Allen’s passing ability. If he truly can learn the position and improve his passing game, this guy can become something special.
Team Projection: Seattle Seahawks
Hendon Hooker - Tennessee (Grade - Round 2)
This is the part of the rankings where I think you can find a gem. Think about the following Quarterbacks - Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott; what do they all have in common? They were all drafted in Rounds three or four. Hendon Hooker has the possibility to do the same. He was on his way to the Heisman trophy in 2023 before he tore his ACL during the season. He had risen Tennessee from the depths of college football to become relevant again. He is as polished as they come in terms of this class. He has some really good pocket presence, has a strong arm and is an accurate passer. Hooker had thrown 27 TDs to 2 INTs before his injury while completion nearly 70% of his passes.
While he was shooting up boards during the season, he promptly plummeted after the injury. But as time has drawn closer to the draft, Hooker has re-appeared in first round mock drafts. If healthy, I believe Hooker would be able to start tomorrow for an NFL team. I think he can help certain teams right now. But let’s discuss Hooker the prospect, and why he isn’t a slam dunk for being selected on Thursday. First and foremost, he is already 25 years old. It would be a real shot in the gut for him to get selected by a team to sit for 1-2 years before he starts. That would mean he wouldn’t be starting until he’s 27. For reference, the following QBs are younger than Hooker right now: Lawrence, Hurts, Herbert, Tua - and Burrow/Jackson/Allen are only one year older. It’s a tough spot for a kid this old coming into the draft. Hooker has an elongated motion, a small hitch, and struggles with a feel for the blitz. These are all things that can get corrected, but with him being 25 already, my biggest fear is that if he gets his chance to start right away and doesn’t correct these things, he may never get another shot. For prospects this old, it is usually one shot and done. However, as mentioned before with Wilson, Cousins and Prescott - they all got their shot, and ran with it.
Team Projection: Washington Commanders
Will Levis - Kentucky (Grade - End of Round 2)
This takes us to the human cyborg, Will Levis. Levis was in the news recently for having pictures of him severely bulked up and showing some serious muscle to his physique. In recent days, it has been rumored that the Indianapolis Colts are enamored with him, and as of today, we learned he held a private workout with the Colts and everyone from the Colts brass was there - so there is some serious interest in that. Levis is an interesting prospect - he has a couple of good traits, some bad - but you know when you just have a feel for a guy? Well, I have that feel for Levis, and it’s not a good one. Let’s discuss the things that I actually like about Levis first.
He has elite arm strength - probably second in the class behind Richardson, and he has a quick, quick trigger with the football. When watching the tape, that’s the one thing that stood out. He can get it to his receivers quick which puts them in great position to be in space. Think Derek Carr in terms of getting the ball out of his hands. He can sling it very very well. He transferred from Penn State to Kentucky after his sophomore season and started for Kentucky for two seasons. While he was there, Levis threw for 43 Touchdowns and 23 Interceptions while 66% of his passes. And that’s where Levis loses me. He wasn’t “dominant” in college. He has extremely poor pocket presence, which causes erratic and almost dumbfounding throws, and despite the 66% completion rate, he has poor accuracy. After watching him at the combine, I wasn’t impressed. And now it’s being reported that his interviews are going poorly, so apparently his attitude isn’t great. But I don’t know how much stock I put in that.
What I do know is that Levis will get an opportunity, and it will likely come in the first round. I think starting him Day 1 would be a colossal mistake, but I have a feeling he will be, and we will see the result in time. We don’t wish him to fail, I just think the traits he has set him up for failure in the current NFL landscape. If he can get drafted by a team with a crafty veteran and sit for a couple of years, he may have some success.
Team Projection: Indianapolis Colts
Jaren Hall - BYU (Grade - Round 3)
This is the guy. This is my dark horse pick for the NFL Draft at the QB position. Go watch the tape of Jaren Hall and tell me he isn’t electric? And yes, this is the same school that Zach Wilson went to. But if you watch Wilson college tape and then Jaren Hall tape - tell me who is better. Over the final two years Hall started at BYU, he accounted for 51 TDs and 11 INTs. He also ran for 800 yards over those two years so he is mobile as well. He can navigate the field well, he can extend plays and has a knack for making the big play. If you want to put a name to it, think Jordan Love, but with mobility.
Hall suffers the same fate as Hendon Hooker - being a 25 year old prospect with an injury history. Hall did not play every game as a starter for the past two seasons. He was relatively healthy this year, but that injury bug will wear on him like a badge of honor come draft time. He really isn’t a threat to go on day one, but I can see him going late in day two. There may be a team out there that doesn’t need a QB, but wants to draft one because they aren’t happy with where they are at the position. I can see Hall stepping in the preseason and impressing to a point where he may start Week 1. If you want to see my concerns with his age, please take a look at my Hendon Hooker analysis.
Team Projection: New England Patriots
Jake Haener - Fresno State (Grade - 4th Round)
This is where my list of Day three quarterbacks start. A couple of these guys I think can end up starting one day and be a lightning in a bottle, but don’t expect any of these guys to get real legit opportunities unless an injury happens to the team they are drafted to. Haener is the epitome of the mascot of the school he went to - the Fresno State Bulldogs. What he lacks in size (6’1, 200 lbs.) he doesn’t lack in spirit. Looking back at Haener’s tape, he runs all over the field and just makes plays. He has above average football IQ, and it shows on the field. He can get the ball out quickly and get his receivers in space.
His football IQ and the fact that he stayed through his senior season has allowed him to read defenses well and detect blitz packages, so he is ahead of the game in that regard. Where Haener struggles is the lack of “traits” in his game that translate to the NFL stage. His size and velocity are a real concern - and there is a thought that he can only succeed in a spread offense. I hate to think of this, but my mind immediately goes to Johnny Manziel. However, if Manziel was drafted in the 4th or 5th round and had zero expectations, he might still be in the league. Haener will get drafted, it’s just a matter of when and where. In the right spot, he can be a serviceable backup and get a chance to get a couple of starts.
Team Projection: Cleveland Browns
Stetson Bennett - Georgia (Grade - Round 4)
What else can we say about a back to back National Championship winning quarterback? A lot, apparently. All we have heard is how Bennett wouldn’t even be considered to be drafted if it wasn’t for Georgia’s defense. He wouldn’t have won anything and may not have even gone pro. Well, there is a reason for everything. Let me make this very, very clear: Stetson Bennett can play. Plain and simple. This is a guy that led his team to back to back titles. They hung what, 56 points in the natty against TCU? Oh, and beat Alabama the year before? Georgia doesn’t win without Stetson Bennett, and vice versa.
Bennett has an underrated arm and underrated speed. He is good outside of the pocket and can create something out of nothing. He is a good decision maker (on the field) as his results speak for themselves (27 TDs to 7 INTs, 68% completion). The stigma on Bennett is his age (25) and his apparent lack of awareness off the field - after winning two national titles, he appeared to do a TV interview drunk and then got arrested the following year after winning. Maybe the guy just parties too hard? I don’t know, but it is clearly going to make some teams take him off their board completely. He should get an opportunity to get drafted, and he probably will, but I can see it being on Day 3 in Round 5 or 6. I have a 4th round grade on him because I think his ability is much better than all the other Day 3 candidates. In my mind, I toy between two teams that would draft him, but one makes more sense than the other.
Team Projection: Detroit Lions
Malik Cunningham - Louisville (Grade - 5th Round)
Cunningham is your Lamar Jackson/Justin Fields of this years QB class.Last year, Cunningham ran for over 1,000 yards on the ground and threw for 19 touchdown passes. This year, in only 10 games, he ran for 500 yards, but only threw for 8. He clearly took a step back this year, but the athleticism is undeniable. He is not a big guy (6’1, 195), but his athleticism and speed are nothing to sniff at. As far his arm goes, he is not wildly accurate (62% in college) and under throws a lot of balls. He doesn’t have a strong arm, and after his read has a tendency to tuck and run. My immediate thought in terms of comp is Tyler Huntley, but maybe not as good of a thrower?
He is the all time leader at Louisville for touchdowns, surpassing Lamar Jackson last year. He also ran a 4.53 at the NFL combine, just scratching the surface of his athleticism. In today’s NFL, it would be almost criminal if Cunningham doesn’t get drafted. The reason that he is graded so low is because of his arm - it’s just not NFL ready. It may never even get there. But Cunningham absolutely has the ability to be a Taysom Hill lite in the league today. Some NFL offensive mastermind will draft and want to use him on certain downs for the threat of the run of the pass. A few teams come to mind when thinking of Cunningham and the services he provides, but as a full time starter - I’m unsure if he will ever get there.
Team Projection: Los Angeles Rams
Clayton Tune - Houston (Grade - Round 6)
We are getting to the nitty gritty here. The rest of the guys here I think he can get drafted but can easily go undrafted and sign as UDFAs. My analysis on these guys won’t be as large as the other ones.
Tune played at Houston where the competition was average, but not great. He has a large frame (6’2.5, 220 lbs) and some mobility (ran a 4.64), but he has a “stiff body” in the pocket and doens’t have a very strong arm. His accuracy is very different as opposed to this short game vs. anything of over 30+ yards. He always finished seasons strong, as was the case this year with him winning MVP in the Independence Bowl in the teams win over Louisiana. Tune has the makeup of a backup quarterback in the NFL.
Team Projection: Minnesota Vikings
Max Duggan - TCU (Grade - Late 6th)
The season that the Horned Frogs had absolutely catapulted Duggan in every sense of the word. Coming in as a backup in the opening game of 2022, Duggan was under a spell and took TCU all the way to National Championship game while garnering Heisman finalist honors. It was a great story that ended abruptly when Duggan and the Frogs got stomped by Georgia, but that game alone should tell you all you need to know about Duggan’s NFL potential.
Sure, Duggan is athletic, mobile, and even can create on certain occasions, but he looked like a deer in headlights most of that game. He throws off his back foot a ton, has trouble pre and post snap with his reads, and in inconsistent with his accuracy. I think the notoriety alone from last season will get him drafted, but it may be a struggle for him to stick on an NFL roster.
Team Projection: Dallas Cowboys
Tanner McKee - Stanford (Grade - 7th Round)
McKee comes from the Stanford offense, which is known for their “pro style offense” and gives prospects a leg up on the NFL. The only issue here is that McKee is not very athletic. He would have been a good prospect 25 years ago, but now, I’m not so sure. He does have a big body and has good ball placement, but with that he is slow, flat footed, and has a very long motion. He also isn’t great at extending plays.
McKee would get blasted by the EDGE rushers in today’s NFL. His lack of mobility reminds me of Eli Manning - but he doesn’t nearly have the arm that Manning had. Again, McKee may get drafted because of the school he went too, but don’t be shocked if he gets cut in the pre-season.
Team Projection: Denver Broncos
Sean Clifford - Penn State (Grade - 7th Round/UDFA)
Watching Clifford certain times at Penn State was painful. The Nittany Lions were good despite their non-athletic QB, whose strongest asset was his short passing game accuracy. He has the “death by a thousand cuts” mentality, but that was really the only thing going for him. He has a very long motion, is not great at extending plays, and I can’t tell you the amount of times I saw a ball flutter in the air. The XFL may be calling his name soon enough.
Team Projection: UDFA
Tyson Bagent - Shepherd (Grade - 7th Round/UDFA)
The only D-II QB to make his way into the NFL draft this year, Tyson Bagent was a star at Shepherd. Unfortunately, that will be the last place he may be a star. Bagent comes in as a small QB, doens’t have great arm strength, and has a ton of mechanical issues. He exudes confidence, which is great when you are coming in as underdog, but I would truly be surprised if he gets drafted. He may sign on as a UDFA and end up on a practice squad, but I don’t expect him to be on an NFL roster come Week 1.
Team Projection: UDFA
