Fantasy Football SZN - Quarterbacks
We have begun the ascent. With the Hall of Fame taking place today, we now will have a football game every week until the middle of February. Smell those flowers. Take your time to take in the surroundings. Take that extra second in whatever you’re doing before you go on to the next task. Life is good. Especially when you realize that Fantasy Football season is in full swing. This is the perfect time of year to check out all the lists of players, who the sleepers are going to be, who the busts are going to be, and who this years Jalen Hurts is.
We pride ourselves on our Fantasy knowledge. Between the three voices at PSP, we accumulate 10 Fantasy titles amongst various leagues as well as having a knack for nailing some deeper sleepers year in and year out; thank you Isaiah Pacheco and Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2022. While people argue about who the Top RBs are and who the belongs in Tier 2 or 3 of the WR group, we often forget that the QB position is maybe the most important in Fantasy. Personally, I belong in leagues where the QBs can get upwards of 40-50 points per game, while in another league 25 points for a QB is a lot. While those metrics are a see-saw, one thing cannot be overstated - you want a stud at the position. Flip flopping quarterbacks based off of weekly matchups almost never works, and betting on a guy with potential when he is unproven isn’t a wise strategy unless you already have someone who is the veteran who can be expendable.
What do I mean by that? Let’s take in 2023 for a second. We all know that dual threat Quarterbacks are king in Fantasy Football. The darling of the off-season so far is Justin Fields. Now, Fields was an excellent Fantasy QB last year (7th among all QBs). However, he was so hit and miss cause of his passing inaccuracies that it was difficult to wonder which weeks would be good and which would be bad. In all three of my leagues last year, the champion in each one had Patrick Mahomes as their QB. That’s not a coincidence. If you plan on drafting Fields in 2023 hoping for him to jump into the Top 5; hell, even Top 3 - I would be keen to draft another one who has proven he can do it on a week in-week out basis in the event Fields can’t figure out the passing game.
Do we have Tiers for our QBs? Of course we do. But we are gonna get down and dirty with out tiers this year. Each QB ranked (Top 35), we will provide some numbers from last year and then give our analysis on what we expect from them going forward. Most of the advanced statistics come from Fantasypoints.com, which is a fantastic spot to get all your fantasy information! Let’s get started with the juggernauts…
Tier I - The Monstars
Patrick Mahomes (Bye - Week 10) - Mahomes was the best overall and fantasy QB last season accumulating 429.4 Fantasy Points while collecting another Lombardi Trophy. No injury designation going into the season. Mahomes was the best fantasy QB at home AND on the road this past season as well as being the top QB in the month of November. He ranked 9th as a “cold weather QB” so there was no issue there. He only threw deep on 9.3% of his throws, which was well below the usual (no Tyreek Hill), but he was just as dynamic. He averaged 25.3 FPP last year, which was good for 3rd, but he threw 41 touchdown passes, which catapulted him to the top of the charts. He only lost Juju Smith-Schuster, but added rookie Rashee Rice and has another year of Skyy Moore, so Mahomes is a comfortable QB1.
2. Jalen Hurts (Bye - Week 10) - Hurts was the near MVP last season before Mahomes went nuclear. Hurts was fantastic both at home and on the road, as well as being the 4th best “cold weather QB”, so there is no issue there. Hurts threw the ball down the field more, having a 12% Deep Throw % with an adjusted completion % of 77.8. He continued to throw to his first read a ton (73.5%) so AJ Brown should benefit in Year 2. A couple of areas where Hurts can improve is Pressure Rate, which was only .13%, and his lack of playing well in the rain. The reason Hurts is above Allen is because he averaged .71 FP per drop back last year, which was good for #1 among all QBs. If Hurts runs more this year, which he should, then that number may very well go up.
3. Josh Allen (Bye - Week 13) - Josh Allen played hurt last year. And still finished as the 2nd best fantasy QB of 2022. Allen threw 35 touchdown passes last year had the same production whether he was at home or on the road. His strongest month was October, as he was the highest ranked fantasy QB during that time. He was by far the best “cold weather” QB, almost doubling the point total of the second place guy on that list, Justin Fields. There is a lot to be said that Allen may be the best fantasy QB down the stretch and during playoff time. He was also the best QB against his division last year. For the math-letes, that’s six fantasy games of above average play! A couple of nuggets though - Allen threw 14 INTs last year. Over the past two years, he has thrown 29(!!!) INTs, so that is starting to become a trend of sorts. In his five years in the NFL, he has only not thrown double digit INTs once (2019). A lot of Allen’s point came from avoiding sacks (41 times) and scrambling yards (51 scrambles for 506 yards). That also got him hurt last year… His ACC% was down last year (49.9%), his off target throws reached 16.6%, and he played HERO ball a ton (7.6%). He started to check it down more than in years past (8.8%) and with James Cook now commanding starting duties, expect that number to go up, and the scramble opportunities to go down. He is still a fantasy machine; he will just protect himself more this year.
Tier II - Carry Me Lord
4. Lamar Jackson (Bye - Week 13) - The biggest thing with Jackson is his health. Last year was the second year in a row he had a season ending injury and cost his team a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl. He did get a new contract in the offseason, so hopefully the injury bug is behind him. If you pro-rate Lamar’s stats from 2022 over 17 games, he comes in as the 5th best fantasy QB last season. Now take into account he wasn’t having a great year last year. In 12 games, he had a 62.3% completion rate while only throwing for 186.8 YPG and throwing 17 touchdown passes. He threw the ball deep 14.1% of the time, but now with Odell Beckham at his disposal along with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and newcomer Zay Flowers, expect that number to go down, but the YAC % to go up (46.5%). The Ravens receivers didn’t do him any favors either, with a drop % of 6.1. He did have a positive PrROE (Pressure Rate over Expectation) which other big names QBs were not as good last year (Rodgers, Lawrence, Brady, Goff, etc.). Lamar averaged .65 FP per drop back, which was good for third behind Hurts and Fields (see the trend?). If Lamar can stay healthy, he can easily be the highest scoring QB this year.
5. Joe Burrow (Bye - Week 7) - For the third year in a row, Burrow has a training camp injury. This year its a strained calf, but thankfully there is no real threat to have him miss regular season games. This is good, because Burrow may be the most clutch QB in the entire league. Burrow may have the best skill players in the entire NFL, with the likes of Mixon, Chase, Higgins and Boyd. Getting into 2022 Burrow, he was actually more effective on the road than he was at home. He ranked as the 3rd best fantasy QB on the road while he ranked 8th at home. He also ranked within the top 10 in cold weather games (0-40 degrees). Burrow had the second highest completion percentage last year, behind Geno Smith, and averaged the second most YPG behind Mahomes. Like Mahomes, Burrow doesn’t throw the ball deep a ton. He only averaged an 8.7% Deep Thrown percentage with an adjusted completion % of 78.6. Burrow loves his first read, as he goes there 66% of the time (Chase lovers unite). The one thing Burrow did a lot of last year, and which I think hinders him in terms of fantasy value, is he checks down a bunch. Last year he did it 11.7% of the time, which was good for 1st in the NFL. Burrow is still a Top 5 fantasy QB option, solely on the fact that he throws an incredible ball and he has elite weapons.
6. Trevor Lawrence (Bye - Week 9) - The second half of the year was no fluke. Lawrence was a Top 5 QB from November on last year, and he really took his game up a notch on the road. He was a Top 5 fantasy QB on the road, putting himself in the conversation with the names mentioned above him. Contrary to what many believe, Lawrence actually performs well in the rain. He ranked as the second highest fantasy QB when the water poured in, sandwiching himself between Lamar and Josh Allen. Lawrence saw an increase in his Deep Throw % (11.6) and the YAC went up as well (51.7%). Thank you Doug Pederson. All you Calvin Ridley lovers - get ready for this. Trevor threw to his first read 75% of the time. Hopefully the addition of Ridley will lower the Jaguars drop rate of 6%, which accounted for 256 yards last season. Lawrence needs to do better against pressure (-1.65% PrROE), but overall, the sky is the limit for the prince that was promised.
Tier III - You’re Already Good, You CAN be Great!
7. Justin Fields (Bye - Week 13) - The conundrum that is Justin Fields. Lets start with the good - Fields finished 7th last year in Fantasy points for QBs, which is fantastic. He was insanely poised against pressure, having the best PrROE rate, a 14.45% clip!!!! The problem (or maybe not?) is that most of those points came from running the football. In the passing department, Fields only managed a 60.4% completion rate last season with a 17:11 TD to INT ratio. Fields was the worst fantasy QB in the month of September, but really turned it on afterwards. Fields was excellent in the cold weather, as he better be if he plays in Chicago. But he really struggled in the rain as he ranked the 3rd worst fantasy QB when it rains. Fields got sacked 55 times last year, which led to 66 scramble opportunities - netting about 10 YPC. If the offensive line improves, the Bears will have to have more designed runs for Fields. His ACC% was right in line with players like Mariota and Mac Jones, which isn’t great company, but the addition of DJ Moore should hopefully help that. Bottom line, Fields needs to become more accurate and get better in the pocket. Of the 55 sacks he took last year, 17 of them were on him. Only Russell Wilson came close with 16. If he can clean both of this things up, he may be in for a special year.
8. Jared Goff (Bye - Week 9) - Fun Jared Goff is back, baby. He was the orchestrator of maybe the most fun offense in the entire NFL last year. With the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and the great offensive line, the Lions put up POINTS. If you’re gonna draft Goff though, I would make sure you have a suitable backup. While Goff ranked 3rd in FP at home, he was almost as poor on the road, ranking as the 10th worst fantasy QB on the road. Jared loves that dome. Goff threw for 4400 yards with 29 TD passes last season. He only threw the deep ball 9.4% of the time, which was relevant because St. Brown was more of an over the middle guy. At times, Goff did have some accuracy issues - and my betting self would argue those came on the road. With a new toy in Jahmyrr Gibbs coming into the fold this year, that should unlock some more YAC for the Lions offense. They replaced Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift with Gibbs and Montgomery. As long as St. Brown stays health and Ben Johnson remains the OC, Goff is a fantasy starter in most situations.
9. Justin Herbert (Bye - Week 5) - The new richest QB in the NFL resides in California. Justin Herbert may have the prettiest ball in the entire NFL. Herbert has a wonderful cast of characters too - Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now Quentin Johnston - to throw the ball too. Herbert was a fringe fantasy QB starter last year, but he excelled on the road, ranking 6th amongst all QBs in FP away from home. I think some of the issues last year lied with Herbert not doing what he naturally does well; throwing the ball down the field. Last year, Herbert only threw it down the field 8.9% of the time. He also shied away from his 1st read (Keenan Allen) by only going there 57% of the time. His check down % is about 11.6% (Ekeler SZN) but we have to take into account that Joe Lomardi is out, and Kellen Moore is in. Put some context here. Prescott threw the ball down the field 1% more, but had almost a 3% dip in check downs. That could mean less opportunities for Ekeler, but getting back to the old JH. Dak also threw to his first read 68% of the time - an 11% hike from Lombardi. I think with the change at OC, Herbert gets back to an every week fantasy starter.
10. Aaron Rodgers (Bye - Week 7) - Aaron is in a New York State of mind. After an eternity in Green Bay, Rodgers starts his second win in East Rutherford. He reunited with Nate Hackett, Allan Lazard and Randall Cobb. He has a younger version of Davante Adams with Garrett Wilson and a really good young RB in Breece Hall. In a really down year for the QB, Rodgers still managed to be 10th in FP at home. He ranked 3rd in FP in “cold weather games”, so the change from GB to NY shouldn’t matter at all. Rodgers still threw the ball down the field a ton last season - 14.9%, and that should remain the same, maybe even increase with a legitimate number one receiver back in the fold. Wilson should shine with a 67.2% 1st read percentage. Rodgers also won’t have to play as much hero ball as he did last year (6.5% clip). The big question remains with the Jets offensive line. It is still subpar. Rodgers was absolutely abysmal when he faced pressure last year (a -4.97% PrROE clip). Rodgers will get his points and will be a fantasy starter, but the line will depend how good he actually can be.
11. DeShaun Watson (Bye - Week 5) - There really isn’t a lot to go off for DeShaun Watson in 2022. He sat out all of 2021 with a pending investigation and then was suspended in 2022 for the first 12 games. When he did come back in 2022, he was not good. It looked like…he hadn’t played in almost two years. Just to get a feel of how bad Watson was last year? Over a pro-rated 17 games, Watson was the 2nd worst QB at home, and the 9th worst QB on the road. The move from Houston to Cleveland didn’t affect him weather wise though, as his best performance of the season was in a cold weather game. So why am I so high on Watson? Because the last time he played a full season and had a full off-season, he was a stud. And now he has a top running back in Nick Chubb, and a seemingly underrated receiver in Amari Cooper. I think Cooper is a bonafide stud this year, and Watson will return to form. The Browns offensive line is no joke, and when Watson has had time to throw, he has made defenses pay.
12. Tua Tagovailoa (Bye - Week 10) - The biggest question with Tua is going to be health. Plain and simple. If he can find a way to play all 17 games, not only will the Dolphins be a force, but the Hawaiian native may also be a Top fantasy QB as well. Before getting hurt last year, the Dolphins and Tua were tearing it up offensively. No one was able to stop Tyreek and Waddle, and now they have added some skill players to that running back room. Last year Tua was wildly more successful on the road than he was at home, ranking as the 9th best QB on the road and 10th worst QB at home. His 8.87 YPA last year wash higher than guys such as Mahomes, Hurts and Herbert, and he still threw 25 TDs in only 13 games. He’s not much of a runner, which dips his fantasy value a bit. The Dolphins didn’t produce a lot of YAC last year (38.1%), and that probably has to do with Tua’s lack of arm strength. He is a more of a middle of the field guy, and with those receivers - why not? When Tua was healthy this year, he was a must start in fantasy, and this year will be the same thing.
Tier IV - Who are you, Really?
13. Daniel Jones (Bye - Week 13) - If you’re someone who looks to play a two QB system in fantasy, Danny Dimes may be one of your guys. Jones seemed to figure it out last year with HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka as he rushed for a career high in yards and a career low in turnovers. All that success meant a playoff appearance and even a road playoff victory. So why isn’t Jones a sure fire fantasy starter? Because if last year was the best Jones had to offer, then 15 passing touchdowns is not fantasy starter worthy. We talked about Jared Goff earlier. With Goff’s splits last year between home/road games, it may be a good idea to pair him with Jones and go that route. Jones was excellent at home last year, ranking as the 5th best fantasy QB when playing at home. His kryptonite was bad weather, as seems to be the trend with many dual threat QBs. He ranked as the 2nd worst fantasy QB when the weather got tough. Jones finished at QB9 last year in fantasy. His scramble numbers were wild, as he scrambled 54 times for 404 yards and 2 scores. Just as we talked about before with Allen, I don’t think the Giants brass is going to want Jones to run as much when they just invested so much money into him. Jones does not throw the ball deep (4.9%), but that may be because of a lack of weapons last year. Enter Darren Waller and rookie Jalin Hyatt, and maybe Jones will throw the ball down the field more. His biggest thing going for him last year in the passing department was his extreme accuracy. He had an 80.1% ADJ CMP percentage, which was tops in the NFL among all qualified QBs. That’s a hell of a stat. He was also really good under pressure, as his 6.22% PrROE number indicates. Jones is a good fantasy option. Not great, but good. He will pull in numbers some weeks. But the lack of touchdowns he produces may drive some fantasy owners mad during some weeks.
14. Kirk Cousins (Bye - Week 13) - Consistent Kirk. The darling of the show “Quarterback” on Netflix has Cousins in the spotlight this off-season for his toughness and love for his family. With the addition of HC Kevin O’Connell last year, Minnesota had their best regular season in some time, but an untimely early postseason exit to the Giants had people once again if Kirk was the guy. Last season, Kirk finished as QB8 in fantasy, but statistically had his worst season in a while. While he completed nearly 66% of his passes, he failed to surpass 30 TD passes for the first time since 2019, and he doubled his interception total last year from 7 in ’21 to 14 in ’22. He did throw for 300 yards more than he did the previous year, so that helped even out the extra turnovers. Cousins was excellent at home last year as he ranked as the 6th best fantasy QB inside the dome. He throws to his first read nearly 70% of the time, so Jefferson should eat again, but no Dalvin Cook this year may have defenses leaning back more than in years past. I expect a slight regression from Cousins, but his rank of 14 has more to do with the elevation of players like Tua, Watson and Rodgers than it does with Cousins himself.
15. Geno Smith (Bye - Week 5) - There is no denying how good Geno Smith was last year. Like at all. A starter for the first time since his NYJ days, Smith took the Seahawks from a team that was supposed to be a Top 5 draftee to a wild card appearance. Geno came in as QB5 in fantasy last season. QB5!!!! He finished inside the Top 10 in both games at home and on the road, and was a Top 5 fantasy QB in the rain as well. He completed 69.8% of his passes and threw 30 TD passes. It was truly a remarkable year. So why is Geno not a sure fire fantasy option this year? A couple of reasons. One, I need to see him do it again. I am a non-believer. And with the addition of Jaxson Smith-Njiba, he very well make me a believer. But more importantly, some numbers last year suggest Smith was more lucky than good. Geno had a high OFF% (Off Target Throw Percentage) of 15.2%, had a high HERO rate of 6.3%, and had a TWT% (Turnover worthy throws) of 4.5%. The only qualified QBs that had a higher TO rate last year were Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, and Matthew Stafford. Let that sink in for a minute. Do not get me wrong, Geno was great last year, and he skill players (especially the WR trio) will make a valuable play at times this year, but I expect him to come down to earth a bit in 23-24.
16. Dak Prescott (Bye - Week 7) - I think the shine is starting to wear off on the Dallas QB. 2022 was a nightmare for him between injuries and a ton of turnovers. In 12 games last year, Dak threw for 2,860 yards and 23 TD passes, but a stain of 15 INTs, a league high. His fantasy season was saved by being by being the highest scoring fantasy QB in the month of December as he went on a nice little run to position the Cowboys for the playoffs. Prescott didn’t take a lot of shots last year, only throwing 39 deep balls all year long. However, much like the guy mentioned above him, there were some red flags. With an OFF% of 16.5 and a TWT% of 4.1, there is actually an argument to be made that Dak could have thrown more INTs last year. There will absolutely be weeks where Prescott gets you 40-50 points because he threw for 400 yards and 4 scores, but those weeks are few and far between now as the emergence of Tony Pollard and the decreasing play of the offensive line suggest the Cowboys may now be a defense first team.
17. Derek Carr (Bye - Week 11) - A change of scenery was needed last year for Derek Carr. The clock finally struck midnight on his tenure with the Raiders, and now has a new home in New Orleans with the Saints. Carr was statistically one of the worst starting QBs last season, as he completed 60.8% of his passes and threw for 24 TDs along with 14 INTs. He was benched for the 3 weeks as Jarrett Stidham took over to finish the year. Carr has been nothing but class during his time in OAK/LV, but now with a new home, I do expect a little bit of a rejuvenated Carr. Out of everyone in this tier, I think Carr has the most upside. Let’s start with the skill players. A three headed trio of Alvin Kamara (Suspended the first 3 weeks), Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller along with budding WR Chris Olave and star WR Michael Thomas, Carr should have no shortage of weapons to throw the ball to. One may argue that Carr had Davante Adams last year and Josh Jacobs. But I think that team was so mentally cooked, that it took a toll on him. Carr likes to throw the ball deep (13.7%) and the Saints have a couple of burners that can go for a couple of big plays. He needs to improve on his accuracy though. His 72.1 ADJ COM % and his 73.9% CATCH rate were both towards the bottom of the league. He does check down a lot (10.2%) so expect Kamara and Miller to get some good YAC opportunities this year. If Carr can improve the accuracy, he may be worthy of stash this year - you may hit gold.
18. Russell Wilson (Bye - Week 9) - There are no words in my vocabulary to describe how bad Russell Wilson was last year. A season of epic disaster as a team with Super Bowl aspirations finished under .500 and pretty much gave up with a month to play. It led to the firing of Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the OC for the Jets, and a major shakeup in the front office. Wilson is under a huge magnifying glass this season, because if he performs the way he did last year - he won’t be on a team in 2024. Wilson struggled everywhere last year; At home? 9th worst fantasy QB. Completion %? 60.5. A 16:11 TD to INT ratio. He was sacked 55 times. I can go on and on and on. So how is he in the Top 20 of fantasy QB options. Two words. Sean Payton. If anyone can revive this man’s career, it is Payton. For those of you that don’t remember, Payton and Drew Brees were attached at the hip until Drew retired a couple of years ago. The pair won a Super Bowl together and came close a few other times. His job is simple - fix Russ and this offense. The team has weapons! Javonte Williams (coming off an ACL), Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy. Tim Patrick is already lost for the year and KJ Hamler is taking time away from the team for a medical condition, so maybe someone else emerges, but Denver could perform with what they have. It will be on Payton to figure out what the issue was last year. But its buyer beware for Russ this year. Has anyone tried the Dangerwich?
Tier V - The Unknowns
19. Anthony Richardson (Bye - Week 11) - Admittedly, this one was the toughest one to spot. Richardson has all the tools to be a star in the making. He reminds me a lot of Justin Fields. Big bodies, strong arm, great mobility….accuracy issues. MAJOR accuracy issues. Josh Allen had accuracy issues coming into the NFL, but he figured it out, so maybe AR will too. A couple of things about this rookie; we don’t know if he is going to start yet. With the Jonathan Taylor situation taking over in Indy, it would probably be smart to let Gardner Minshew suffer than let Richardson shoulder that load to start the year. It’s a tough situation to put a raw, rookie QB in without their top running back and a rookie head coach. Second, we don’t know where he is at. It was a wide known fact that Richardson was a raw prospect coming out of school, but its just a matter of when he can put it together - if he can put it together. In a dynasty league, he is 1000% worth a top pick as your patience very well may pay off. But in a redraft? He is no way, shape or form a starting fantasy option. He may have weeks where he gets 25 points because of his legs and you will be tempted to start him. Don’t. He will struggle. This isn’t Patrick Mahomes who sat a year and then took the league by storm. Andrew Luck struggled a little his rookie year. Trevor Lawrence struggled mightily his rookie campaign. He’s worth a late round selection for sure. This ranking is more for the keeper and dynasty leagues.
20. Matthew Stafford (Bye - Week 10) - What a difference a year makes. At the beginning of last season, Matthew Stafford was a Super Bowl champion and a player that everyone wanted on their fantasy team. This season, no one wants to go near him. After a dream season, the injury bug came back to Stafford and some thought he may not even come back. And before the injury, he was dreadful. In 9 games, he threw for 2,087 yards with 10 TDs and 8 Ints. He was sacked 29 times in 9 guys. That’s a hair over 3 times a game. He ranked inside the Bottom 10 as a fantasy QB option both at home and on the road. He had a negative CPOE (Completion Percentage over Expectation), 19.5% OFF, and a 4.6% TWT. Putting him at 20 is based off his talent and the fact that Cooper Kupp still remains there. He is still a better option than guys like Tannehill, Pickett, Ridder, Jones, Howell, etc. If he can come back to life, then you have a solid backup - but make no mistake, this team is not the team from two years ago.
21. Kyler Murray (Bye - Week 14) - I want to acknowledge that this ranking is a mix of his injury and the fact that this team is going to be poor. These are not the Arizona Cardinals that started off, what, 8-0 in 2021? Murray has had a couple of injuries now, and the suggestion is that he won’t be back until the middle of the season. This team’s top threats are James Conner, Hollywood Brown and Zach Ertz, who ALL were injured at one or another last year. Before Murray’s season ending injury, he was having an OK year. He had thrown for nearly 2400 yards and 14 TDs. He still used his legs a lot though. If you pro-rate his stats over a full season, he would have finished as QB4 in fantasy. That’s quite shocking when you think about where he is being drafted now. He was more accurate than in year’s past as his ADJ COM % of 78.2 suggests and his 54.9% ACC. His 2.36 TTT (Time to Throw) was one of the tops in the leagues, and avoiding sacks will be huge for him. The biggest question mark for Murray will be what can he do with his legs as that’s such a big part of his fantasy game. If he can’t do what he normally does, he’s a bench warming fantasy QB at best, a streamer at worst. If he can run - well, when he comes back, even though the team is bad - he’s probably a plug and play.
22. Kenny Pickett (Bye - Week 6) - This is a projection ranking. Pickett played better down the stretch than the numbers suggest, but still, the numbers were not good overall. He didn’t start the year, but the poor play of Mitchell Trubisky forced Mike Tomlin’s hand before the season was absolutely lost. The Steelers finished above .500 again, partly due to Pickett playing better in December. He was not a good fantasy option though. He ranked in the Bottom 10 in both QB ranks both at home and on the road, and threw more INTs (9) than TDs (7) last season. He did go down the field a bit last year (11.6%) so the big play opportunity is there. And the Steelers have a better skill group than people give them credit for. Najee Harris should have a better year (I’m convinced he was hurt all year last year), Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Friermuth. That’s a pretty good cast of characters. Dare I say it kinda all lies on Pickett’s shoulders? He needs to improve his accuracy a bit, as his OFF% was 15.9 during his rookie campaign. Pickett is an intriguing QB option in real life, however, in fantasy he’s a clear back up for now. Unless he explodes.
23. Jordan Love (Bye - Week 6) - The Curious Case of Jordan Love. No, he’s not aging backwards, but curious in the sense where we genuinely have no idea what we are going to get. This is Jordan Love’s 3rd NFL season, and he has started one game. One. And it was in Arrowhead Stadium in a 13-7 loss. He was “meh”. Did you forget he was a 1st round pick? I sure didn’t. There is definitely pressure on this kid to do well. You’re following up Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. But this team is very young. The skill group is super interesting. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave. I do like the idea of these guys growing together. But it’s really hard to have an idea of what’s going to happen. I put him in with the group of the rookies really. The reason I have him 23rd is because he at least was able to practice with these guys last year, and he knows their tendencies. That has to count for something…right?
24. Bryce Young (Bye - Week 7) - The number one overall pick. The last QB drafted number one overall had a lot of hype in rookie season and faceplanted, so I think the expectations have been tempered a little bit for Young. Another very interesting group for the young gun, and with the hire of Frank Reich, there is a lot to like here. A couple of savvy veteran receivers in Adam. Thielen and DJ Chark. Miles Sanders as the running back. Bryce is surrounded with talent. It might be middle of the road talent, but talent none the less. Out of all the rookie QBs, I do like Young’s group the best (if Jonathan Taylor was practicing, I would have said Richardson) and I think he has the best chance to succeed in 2024. He was the most consistent Quarterback of the rookies coming out this year, and he should be the most competitive one as the division he is in is really up for grabs. Accuracy is the name of his game, and he has a beautiful deep ball, so maybe DJ Chark can repeat what he did in Jacksonville a few years back.
Tier VI - I Love to Stream
25. Ryan Tannehill (Bye - Week 7) - The signing of DeAndre Hopkins helps his value, but since his renaissance year, his play has dipped consistently. The drafting of Will Levis spells the end at the first sign of poor play.
26. Jimmy Garoppolo (Bye - Week 13) - Before getting hurt last year, Jimmy G was having a good fantasy year. He would have finished as QB12 if he played a full year. The problem currently is that outside of Davante Adams, this team is full of injury prone players and a disgruntled running back. Pass.
27. CJ Stroud (Bye - Week 7) - Probably the most accurate rookie QB of the bunch, but Ohio State QBs tend to struggle in their first year or two, and the receiving core is not really great. Metchie is a rookie, and his best option is Dalton Schultz. Worth a late pick in keeper leagues.
28. Brock Purdy (Bye - Week 9) - Looking back, it was surprising how bad Purdy would have ranked over a pro-rated 17 games. He would have finished as the 2nd worst fantasy QB on the road and the 8th worst at home. He has an array of weapons, but Shanahan uses them so differently. And with Lance/Darnold breathing down his neck, if he has a couple of bad weeks whose to say they won’t call someone else’s number?
29. Desmond Ridder (Bye - Week 11) - The final four games were a mixed bag for Ridder, but numbers wise he was actually terrible. He ranked as the worst fantasy QB both at home and on the road over 17 games. The addition of Bijan Robinson should help, but the pass catchers remind me of the situation in Denver - a lot of potential, but not a lot of production - yet.
Tier VII - Let Me Vomit in my Mouth
30. Mac Jones (Bye - Week 11) - Their best offensive weapon is their running back and his own head coach doesn’t trust him. Why should you?
31. Sam Howell (Bye - Week 14) - Had some hype in college but fell during the draft process. He’s getting an opportunity this year, but the offense was anemic last year and with virtually no change in it this year, I don’t see a significant jump. If the Commanders are struggling again, whose to say Scary Terry won’t be on the block?
32. Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask (Bye - Week 5) - I put these dudes together because no matter who starts it will yield the same result. As long as Todd Bowles is the head coach this team is going nowhere fast.
33. Will Levis (Bye - Week 7) - Not expected to start this season, but if Tannehill struggles, his number may get called. This seems like a Ridder situation from last year.
33. Gardner Minshew (Bye - Week 11) - The only reason you’re drafting this guy is cause of the stache.
34. Davis Mills (Bye - Week 7) - Was passable last year, but with Stroud in a QB battle, he will win out eventually.
35. Trey Lance (Bye - Week 9) - Will this guy ever get an opportunity? They spent the third overall pick on him!
