Fantasy Football SZN - Tight Ends

We’ve covered Quarterbacks. We’ve covered Running Backs. We’ve covered Wide Receivers. But we absolutely cannot forget about Tight Ends! The evolution of the Tight End position from 1980-2023 has been astonishing. Not only have we seen the position become a vital part of offenses, but we have seen guys such as Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce become the focal point of their offenses. We live in a different world. And while in years past the TE position we not really considered “deep”, I think this year may be a little different. Different in the sense that there are a lot of up and comers. When you get to Tier 3 and Tier 4, you’re gonna say to yourself “Hey, I like those guys.” Well, we do too. Everyone loves Travis Kelce, and you should draft him with confidence in Round 1. But if you find yourself facing a Dallas Goedert/Pat Freiermuth dilemma in Round 6, that’s a pretty good spot to be in as well. To complete our positional rankings of 2023, here are our tiers for the Tight End position.

As always, our advanced metrics come from fantasypoints.com. Make sure you check them out for great articles and in depth analysis.

Tier I

1. Travis Kelce (Bye - Week 10) - Kelce belongs in a tier all by himself. Every year he puts up the numbers he puts up, he solidifies himself more and more as the greatest Tight End to ever play the game. Last year was no different as he scored a whopping 317.3 fantasy points, over 100 points more than TE2. That’s not only alarming, but that’s hall of fame fantasy stuff. Its just one of those things that you can’t quantify. He finished 3rd RTE at 77.6%. He finished 2nd in AY Share at 28.7% as well as first in targets with 147. 113 of those were on the first read. He finished 1st in YACO with 279 yards. That’s not only first for all TE’s, that was good for number one in the NFL. A Tight End, with the most YACO in the entire league. Astounding. Kelce is the only TE ever who could and should be drafted in Round 1 of your fantasy league. He is the equivalent to a WR1.

Tier II

2. TJ Hockenson (Bye - Week 13) - The HOCK has risen up over the past couple of seasons and should now firmly be the TE2 in fantasy. He has absolutely surpassed Mark Andrews. Hockenson ranked 7th in RTE last season at 74.5%, but that number should go up because of the departure of Irv Smith Jr. He was 2nd in targets at 126 and was 2nd in YACO at 228. Hockenson is the number two passing option in the Vikings offense behind Justin Jefferson, but make no mistake: Hockeson is as sure a pass catcher in the league as any tight end there is, including Travis Kelce.

3. Mark Andrews (Bye - Week 13) - Andrews has been a model of consistency over the past couple of seasons, being the number one passing target for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Now with the arrival of Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, Andrews should get a little bit of a break. But he is still the safety blanket for this offense and someone who can stretch the field. He has mitts for hands as well. He finished as TE4 last year, but was more volatile than in years past. He did rank 1st in RTE at 83.4% and 1st in AY Share at 37.1%. That’s the number I think may take a dip. He’s still going to own all the route from a TE perspective for Baltimore, but the new weapons may get more opportunities down the field. I still expect him to get a bunch of targets (106 in ’22), but wouldn’t be shocked to see that number fall under 100 this year. Even with all of the numbers and the potential of a decline above, I still think that Andrews is a firm TE3, even with the potential decline. However, unlike in years past where you may want to take him late in round two or early round 3, I would definitely wait. I think a bunch of guys could possibly surpass him this year.

4. Evan Engram (Bye - Week 9) - Speaking of a guy that can possibly surpass Andrews in fantasy points this year. Engram seemed to finally figure it out in Jacksonville last year as he put career highs across the board in route to a TE5 finish in fantasy. He had 97 targets (5th) along with a 73.8% RTE (7th). The addition of Calvin Ridley may sting a little, but as I mentioned in the Wide Receiver piece, I think that hurts Zay Jones the most. The fact is this - Doug Pederson loves his tight ends. When he was in Philly, Ertz and Goedert were a dynamic duo. And now in Jacksonville, he is trying to re-create that with Engram and the second round selection of Brenton Strange. However, with how much Tight Ends tend to struggle as rookies, I would not be too worried about Strange this year.

5. George Kittle (Bye - Week 9) - Kittle was the top target for Brock Purdy during the last six week of the season. That can’t be denied. Kittle’s explosion at the end of November and December thrusted him to a TE3 finish, being one of only three TEs to have over 200 points. Kittle ranked 2nd in RTE with 78.1% and finished 3rd in AY Share with 24.5%. He also finished first in end zone targets, being the only Tight End to receive double digit targets (11). Kittle seems to start seasons off slow and then really gain steam towards the end of the season, so if you do draft him: be patient. It may be worth drafting another tight end later who can toggle with until Kittle takes off.

Tier III

6. Darren Waller (Bye - Week 13) - Whenever Waller is healthy, he puts up numbers. However, he has really been unable to do that over the past couple of seasons. He does seem to have a new start in New York with the Giants as he walks into a situation where is the number one passing option. He offers Daniel Jones something he’s never had before (and what Kenny Golladay was supposed to be), a sure handed catcher. Waller has made some incredible catches in his career and we get reminded of how good he is off the bounce. He may be the most athletic tight end in the league along with Evan Engram and David Njoku. If Waller stays healthy, he can finish as high as TE2. But you can’t take that risk without drafting a sure thing later. Pairing Waller with a guy like Chig Okonkwo or Tyler Conklin would be a really smart idea.

7. Pat Freiermuth (Bye - Week 6) - The former Nittany Lion was touted in the draft in 2021, and unlike many before him, he really didn’t suffer from the Tight End curse. He also didn’t make a jump in 2022, he actually regressed by 2 points if you can believe that. But that was with a rookie QB and a journeyman one. Now, Pickett is in year 2. And Freiermuth is in year 3. So if the Fry Guy was going to explode, this is the year. Last season he finished at TE7 and finished 6th in targets with 95. He ranked 4th in TM Yds share at 21.2%. He also surprisingly finished 3rd in YACO with 178 yards. I think Freiermuth starts the expected dip in the tight end department, but I think he can easily surprise, which is why I put him in this group.

8. Dallas Goedert (Bye - Week 10) - This guy is a beast. Let’s get that out of the way. He missed some time last year, but he is a clear target in the Eagles system. After Brown and Smith, it’s Goedert and no one else. Even with the time missed, Goedert ranked 10th in 1st read targets with 59, even though he wasn’t in the top 10 for targets in 2023. That tells me they would have run plays for him even more if he was healthy. I specifically remember the game against the Jets where he torched them for two scores and remember that Goedert is that dude. Draft him with confidence as a TE1 with upside.

9. Dalton Schultz (Bye - Week 7) - The highest ranked Texan I have in fantasy this year. He should undoubtedly be the number one option to start the season, and with a rookie QB now there in CJ Stroud, he should feast. He is a sure pass catcher and extremely good in space. He ranked 7th in targets last season with 86 and was 10th in AY Share at 18.6%. He also lined up as TE1 for Dallas 73.1% of the time. That number should go up this year in Houston as they don’t have someone who will challenge for reps like Jake Ferguson did last season. Even though Schultz is not playing on the same type of offense, he will receive the same, even more volume.

10. David Njoku (Bye - Week 5) - Is this finally the year that Njoku becomes the monster we all think he can be? He has Watson now to throw him the ball consistently. He was actually on the field last year more than you thought he was. He ranked 9th in RTE at 72.7% and 8th in TM YDs at 20.3%, so he can get the field. He had 6 end zone targets, and while that doesn’t seem like a lot, for a TE that isn’t really featured in the offense, it wasn’t bad. Another full year of Njoku being undisputed TE1, he can surprise a few people.

Tier IV

11. Jake Ferguson (Bye - Week 7) - This is where we start to get a little hazy on the position and question which guy to take. At this point, if you haven’t taken a tight end, you may be playing matchup from week to week. I will say though, no one, and I mean no one knew who Dalton Schultz was the year he played for Dallas. And now look at him. I think Jake Ferguson can be in the same conversation. He made some strides last year in the pass game, but this year he comes in as number one on the depth chart with Luke Schoonmaker being the rookie backup. Ferguson has shown ability to make tough catches and be a redzone threat, and in the Dallas offense that can be lethal, that’s definitely worthy of a pick.

12. Cole Kmet (Bye - Week 13) - Kmet got paid this offseason to stay in Chicago. And for the first time in a while, there is a lot of hype around the Bears offense. Kmet is one of the reasons why. He ranked 10th in RTE last season at 72.7%. But the Bears offense sputters halted him taking more of a step than he probably should have. Putting Kmet at 12 is kind of betting on Fields to take that next step. If he does, Kmet can easily be a Top 10 Tight End. If not, he can fall as low as TE20.

13. Kyle Pitts (Bye - Week 11) - Pitts is one year away from owning the bust label. Touted as the best tight end to ever come out of college football, Pitts has yet to be effective on a consistent basis. He’s been a downright disaster. And yet, experts and pundits STILL have this guy as a projected top five tight end. It is laughable. Until Pitts becomes that guy, he is a week to week matchup tight end play with another one. Pitts did not rank inside the top 10 in RTE last year. He did finish 2nd in aDOT at 13.9 and 7th in AY Share at 22.0 But he finished outside the top 10 in targets and outside the top 5 in YACO. He was also nowhere to be seen in the upper echelon of red zone targets. Whatever it is, Pitts is not performing. Based on talent alone, I have him here at 13. But I specifically put him at 13 because as of right now, he is not a starting TE in fantasy.

14. Greg Dulcich (Bye - Week 9) - This is my sleeper TE of 2023. A lot of the numbers suggest that Dulcich may actually be Russ’s favorite target in Denver. Which is quite shocking since everyone was in on Albert O last season. Dulcich finished 5th in RTE at 75.9 and 6th in AY Share at 22.5. He finished 4th in aDOT at 12.5. Under Sean Payton, there was a guy by the name of Jimmy Graham (you may remember) who was the best end zone threat in the entire NFL. See where I’m going with this? Dulcich has the best chance of any TE in this tier to hop into the Top 5 this season.

15. Zach Ertz (Bye - Week 14) - As of August 14th, the Cardinals reported that Ertz is 100% ready to go for the beginning of the 2023 season. That is great news for Ertz who was having a resurgent year in Arizona before he went down with a season ending injury. Without Kyler to start the year, Ertz is a fantasy bench option, but he is 100% worthy of a roster spot, because when Kyler comes back, he is without a doubt a TE fantasy starter.

16. Tyler Conklin (Bye - Week 7) - A-Rod doesn’t use tight ends a ton, but he does target them in the red zone a lot. I think that’s where Ty Conklin will have a lot of his opportunities this year. He actually finished 10th in TE targets last year with 80, but the numbers didn’t support his TE16 finish. Conklin will be fantasy relevant, but he is a bench tight end that may be touchdown dependent.

17. Chig Okonkwo (Bye - Week 7) - The new, full time Tennessee tight end reminds me a lot of Delanie Walker. Like a lot. He was becoming a force towards the end of last year. He wasn’t used enough last season to rank inside the top areas of any advanced metrics, but he has an opportunity to be someone who is used a lot in the passing game. The Titans recently have had good success with pass catching tight ends with the aforementioned Walker and Jonnu Smith.

18. Tyler Higbee (Bye - Week 10) - The Rams used Higbee a lot last season, but I don’t know if that was be design. With Allen Robinson falling flat on his face in LA, McVay kind of pivoted to Higbee as his number two guy. He then became the number one option when Kupp was lost for the year. All in all, Higbee finished as TE6 last season. But I think that was due to all of the factors I just stated above. If Kupp is healthy, his production takes a significant dip. Also keep in mind the Rams want to run the ball more and Van Jefferson has more of a role as a receiver this year. Higbee is a comfortable backup, but will have some nice weeks.

Tier V

19. Gerald Everett (Bye - Week 5) - There were games last year where Gerald Everett was a menace and then games where he was a ghost. That’s kind of been the story of his career though. Being in LA for a second year with the Chargers won’t really change that. They added another wideout in Quentin Johnston and that will take more opportunities away. The only saving grace is that Kellen Moore is the OC, and he turned Dalton Schultz into a star. Or was that Dak? Not quite sure.

20. Dalton Kincaid (Bye - Week 13) - We all know the rookie TE curse; it is alive and well. I don’t think Kincaid is immune to that unfortunately. There is no denying his talent, and I think he has a similar trajectory to TJ Hockenson actually. But the Bills haven’t used their tight ends like that (maybe because they haven’t been able to), but the arrival of Kincaid in Buffalo is a welcome one. They did use a late first round pick on him, so he will have time to grow. With Dawson Knox there, I expect a 50-50 split this season. Absolutely worth a late round pick in dynasty leagues.

21. Juwan Johnson (Bye - Week 11) - Johnson surprised a lot of people last year emerging as the TE1 for New Orleans. He enters this season as the best TE option the Saints have had since Jimmy Graham moved on, and he has Derek Carr as his QB. Johnson will always be limited though as long as Taysom Hill is there. Hill gets a lot of redzone opportunities to catch and run the ball. And with Olave, Thomas, Shaheed and Kamara, I don’t think the Saints have a lot of two TE sets in their playbook.

22. Sam LaPorta (Bye - Week 9) - LaPorta was a very popular pick in the draft this past April and Lions fans seem excited about him. Much like Kincaid, temper your expectations. At least in year one. The Lions traded off Hockenson in division last year and were still ok. I don’t think Ben Johnson is all of the sudden going to change his approach and feature the TE. If they were going to do that, they wouldn’t have trade Hock. It is the St. Brown show in Detroit, and with Jahmyr Gibbs there along with Jameson Williams, LaPorta will have time to entrench himself in this offense.

23. Irv Smith Jr. (Bye - Week 7) - We all though Hayden Hurst would burst onto the scene in Cincinnati. Well, Hurst is in Carolina now. Enter Irv Smith Jr., who was highly sought out in Minnesota but was never able to stay healthy and put it together. He moves on to Cincy where the Bengals don’t really use the tight end in the passing game at all. Smith was only on the field for 50% of routes last year in Minnesota. If he was that good, he would’ve been on the field more. I put him at 23 because the Bengals have a great offense and he may get some limited opportunities, but I think the days of Irv Smith taking off is over.

24. Michael Mayer (Bye - Week 13) - The Notre Dame product was heralded as the most complete tight end in the draft for a long, long period of time. And then he casually fell to day two of the draft where Las Vegas snatched him up to be the replacement for Darren Waller. I do think the league will regret this. Mayer is an animal, and he as a real opportunity to carve out a nice role in Vegas. Jimmy Garoppolo had a great connection with George Kittle, and he may develop one here in Vegas too. The tight end curse lives on, but Mayer is one to watch.

25. Taysom Hill (Bye - Week 11) - The gadget of all gadget players. If Taysom Hill played on every down, he would be a fantasy football icon. But he doesn’t. His package is severely limited and that really hampers him from being draftable. There will be weeks where he scores multiple touchdowns throwing, rushing, catching, but those weeks are few and far between.

Tier VI

26. Luke Musgrave (Bye - Week 6) - Musgrave is another one of the children growing up with the baby Packers. The product out of Oregon State has potential, but he definitely needs to hone his craft a bit. With essentially a rookie QB in Jordan Love, it will take time for him to develop.

27. Mike Gesicki (Bye - Week 11) - The new Patriots “1-2 punch” at tight end consists of Gesicki and Hunter Henry. The former Miami Dolphin had a great opportunity to be part of an elite offense last year with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he was non-existent. I don’t think that’s by coincidence, or was in the game plan. Gesicki has limits, and the Dolphins said no thanks. The Patriots may have one of the worst offenses in the league this year, and Gesicki won’t really help that much.

28. Noah Fant (Bye - Week 5) - Fant was wildly disappointing last season for the Seahawks in a year we saw almost everyone else be successful. He really split time with Will Dissly, and the once promising Iowa Hawkeye prospect is very close to being an afterthought.

29. Logan Thomas (Bye - Week 14) - A few years ago Logan Thomas was a top 10 fantasy option for the position, but since he has regressed and suffered some injuries in the process. Now, the Commanders have a 2nd year starter in Sam Howell who will essentially be a rookie this year. Terry McLaurin is the face of this offense, and with Jahan Dotson supposedly taking a step forward, where does that leave Thomas?

30. Dawson Knox (Bye - Week 13) - Even though Knox has been paid, with the 1st round selection of Dalton Kincaid, the days of Knox being the primary tight end in Buffalo are absolutely, unequivocally, over.

31. Jelani Woods (Bye - Week 11) - Woods scored a couple of touchdowns last season, but his usage was very low. With the new Head Coach in Shane Steichen and new QB in Anthony Richardson, its really hard to pick out where Woods falls in the order of weaponry. He is definitely behind Pittman, Pierce and Taylor though. That leaves him as the 4th option at best.

32. Cade Otton (Bye - Week 5) - The Bucs tight end made some noise this year with Tom Brady, but with Baker Mayfield and potentially Kyle Trask being the new QB1’s, I don’t want to say all hope is lost, but…ya know.

Tier VII

33. Hayden Hurst (Bye - Week 7) - Hurst had his chance in Atlanta with Matt Ryan. Hurst had his chance in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow. Hurst now has his chance in Carolina with rookie Bryce Young. Do me a favor…name me a tight end that Frank Reich really loved in Indianapolis.

34. Luke Schoonmaker (Bye - Week 7) - The Cowboys late round selection is just that. A late round selection. He has no expectations coming into the season, but he did make some plays at Michigan, and if all goes right, he could be the tight end of the future in Dallas.

35. Darnell Washington (Bye - Week 6) - Its really hard to envision a scenario where Washington is impactful this season. With Freiermuth being a legitimate weapon, Mike Tomlin is not going to concede snaps to a rookie. Washington is a physical specimen, but he’s a year away from being fantasy relevant.

Fantasy Football SZN - Wide Receivers

For as long as I can remember, when you thought of Fantasy Football, you thought of Running Backs. But as is the case in the NFL, we are now a full on passing league. And the Wide Receivers have overtaken the Running Backs as the most important position in FF. Getting a top flight receiver is like winning the lottery. You don’t get the first pick anymore and immediately think running back. Sure, you think Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. But you also think Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams. Receivers put up points in bunches and you can take a WR50 who can break out for a 20+ point week.

Below you will have a tiered Wide Receiver ranking of 80 players. Eighty. We go from the mother crystals to the diamonds in the rough to the jewels who aren’t worth a damn anymore at the store. Everyone has a place in the receivers. In a 12 team league, upwards of 60-70 receivers are being drafted. That’s each team having 5 receivers at minimum. We can’t underestimate how important it is to nail this position when you are drafting. So obviously, you should follow our rankings to the letter of the law. Away we go…

As always, we retrieve our advanced metric data from fantasypoints.com - a great source for fantasy football information.

Tier I

1. Justin Jefferson (Bye - Week 13) - Right now, the best player in fantasy football. If I was ranking everyone on a scale, Jefferson is number one. He’s not only the best receiver in the NFL, but he has the numbers to back it up. He was the only receiver in the league to have an XFP/G of 20 last year. He was the top performer for WR in October and December. He’s 6th in RTE (Routes run per Dropback) at 89.2%. He was number one in targets in 2022 with 179. What more do you want? And he has glue for hands. If you have the first overall pick in a re-draft league and you don’t draft Jefferson, you’re doing it wrong.

2. Tyreek Hill (Bye - Week 10) - The Flash of the NFL. Hill is the burner we all wish we can be. And he’s been doing for a good while now. Hill may very well be the best fantasy player year in and year out, and while Tua was healthy last year, he may have had the best chance. Even with Tua in and out of the lineup, Hill finished 3rd in targets at 168. He finished 4th in TM YDS (Rec Yards per Market Share) at 35.9%. Of the 168 targets, 140 were on the first read. The Dolphins are calling plays for Tyreek Hill and Tyreek Hill only. He was 8th in AY Share (Air Yards) at 41.5%. He’s just a physical specimen who can outrun everyone. And the best thing for a receiver like that is when you have an accurate QB. And boy, does he ever.

3. Ja’Marr Chase (Bye - Week 7) - People forget Chase only played 12 games last year due to an injury. And even with those games, Chase still finished as WR11 in 2022. While Jefferson is the best fantasy player and Hill is the fastest one, Chase has the best chemistry with his quarterback. And that counts for a lot. Chase was first in RTE at 94.7% last season while placing 15th in targets at 127. However, if you pro rate his targets over a healthy 17 game season, it comes out to 180 - which would have been good for number one. He ranked 4th in YACO at 238 and 8th in TM TD (Touchdown Market Share) at 33.3%. And for good measure, he finished T-4th in Endzone targets with 15. Chase is just as much as a machine as Jefferson and Hill, but one can argue that his ceiling as actually higher than both players.

4. Davante Adams (Bye - Week 13) - Everyone is waiting for Adams production to fall off. Newsflash: its not going to. Davante just continues to produce. In a year where the QB position in Vegas was in flux, Adams ranked 3rd 92.3% at RTE while finishing 5th in AY Share at 42.5%. He was 2nd in the NFL in targets at 169 while collecting a TM Yds share of 36.3, good for 3rd; and a 50% TM TD rate, good for 2nd. He also had 15 end zone targets. The Raiders force fed Adams the football last year, and it proved fruitful for him. He finished WR3 last season, which not only showed he isn’t slowing down, but actually may be showing improvement. This year he has Jimmy G, who is comparable in my eyes to Derek Carr. Carr had his worst season as a pro last year and Adams did what I just mentioned. Davante is an easy WR1, even with Jimmy G.

5. Cooper Kupp (Bye - 10) - If you think Davante Adams gets the ball a lot, then I wonder what your thoughts are on Kupp. Right now, in 2023, Cooper Kupp is the Rams offense. He is unguardable. For the first time in his career though, he had a serious injury that limited him to only 9 games throughout the season. He still finished as WR23. In a 12 team league, with 9 games played, Cooper Kupp finished as a low end WR2. Think about that for a second. I would not be shocked if Sean McVay has a “Cooper Kupp” playbook. The amount of times the Rams give him the ball is insane. His XFP/G last year was 19.5, which was good as T-2nd (Chase), only trailing Jefferson. He still finished 1st in TM TD with a 66.7% clip!!!!!! He also finished 6th in AY Share at 41.9%. As long as he is healthy, Kupp is a comfortable WR1, even on a diminishing Rams team.

Tier II

6. Stefon Diggs (Bye - Week 13) - This is not unfamiliar territory for Diggs. The last time the WR was unhappy, he was traded from Minnesota to Buffalo where his career took off with Josh Allen. Now, he is unhappy again; probably for the lack of playoff success by the Bills in the past three seasons. But he remains in Buffalo. And as long as he is there, he is a bonafide fantasy receiver. He continued to put up absolutely insane numbers in a Bills offense that is probably the most pass happy in the NFL. In a division where the Bills see defenses controlled by Bill Belichick and Robert Saleh, Diggs ranked 10th in FP/G against his own division. He also ranked 5th in targets with 151 and 8th in TM YDS with a 33.3% clip. He  also ranked 2nd in Endzone Targets with 18, only trailing DK Metcalf. Diggs’ XFP/G was 18.6, which was good 6th last year in the NFL. All the stats just prove that Diggs production isn’t going anywhere. And if they do, that means either Josh Allen got hurt, Diggs got hurt, or the Bills absolutely imploded - where any of those things is not likely to happen.

7. AJ Brown (Bye - Week 10) - It seems Brown is the latest receiver to absolutely elevate the play of his QB. It all started when the aforementioned Diggs went to Buffalo and juiced up Allen’s career, and Brown did the same for Jalen Hurts. He arguably had the best season in his career while helping lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance. He is now firmly entrenched as the number one guy in Philadelphia for years to come (which is why Jon Robinson is currently out of a GM job). Brown’s XFP/G last season was 15.2, which was good 15th in the NFL, which seems a little low; but when you consider that Hurts had to share the ball with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, it makes more sense. Brown also finished 9th in Air Yards with 40.7% and 12th in targets with 136. He also finished 2nd in YACO with 251 yards after contact. Where Brown really excelled last year was the big play ability and scoring touchdowns. If he can replicate that this year, then he can finish as high as WR4 in my mind. But it is difficult to replicate year over year turnover in the touchdown department, so WR7 seems good for him right now.

8. Garrett Wilson (Bye - Week 7) - The OROY last year was a human joystick. He should start collecting the ankles he’s going to break during his career. Wilson was highly touted coming out of Ohio State, and he lived up the billing last year. Wilson finished 8th in targets with 141 (of which 129 were 1st read targets) and finished 5th in YACO with 232 yards after contact. His XFP/G finished at 15.0, which sits around WR17. But now think of this. He accomplished all this and won offensive rookie of the year with the legendary trio of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White playing QB. Where are those guys now? Well, White is the backup in Miami to Tua. Flacco is still unsigned and should probably retire. Wilson is still in New York, but he is now the backup….to Aaron Rodgers. Yup. If you think Garrett Wilson is not going to take off, you’re insane. Rodgers loves his number one guys. And Davante Adams was the undisputed fantasy GOAT until Justin Jefferson started kicking down doors. But now that Rodgers is in NY, I would not be shocked if at the end of the year, Garrett Wilson is sitting as WR1. You heard it here first.

Tier III

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Bye - Week 9) - We all remember Calvin Johnson in fantasy. I had him a couple of times and I was never disappointed. But Johnson was the 2nd overall draft pick for the Lions and they were unfortunately never really good while he was there (outside of that one season). And after Johnson retired, we weren’t sure when the next Lions great receiver would come. Who knew it would come in the form of a 4th round kid who says the name of every.single.receiver. taken in front of him in his draft class every day before he practices/plays a game. That is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s a dog. And the offense that Ben Johnson has orchestrated in Detroit is fun to watch; and St. Brown is the focal point. Amon-Ra was 6th in targets last year at 143. Of those targets, 118 were on the first read. His XFP/G was 15.4. It was a true explosion. And the Lions are getting better offensively. The addition of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery creates a better, more explosive running back room. We get an almost full year of Jameson Williams. But St. Brown reminds me of when Michael Thomas broke the scene. He killed people with his routes and his catches over the middle of the field. St. Brown did the same, but dare I say with more explosion. When you say to yourself “Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR1?” That’s a definitive yes.

10. Ceedee Lamb (Bye - Week 7) - You know some of the guys you look and you say to yourself why is this guy going so high? That’s Lamb. But when you break down his numbers, it makes total, total sense. Lamb ranked 5th in RTE last season at 90.2%, which is insane for most of those routes coming out of the slot. He ranked 4th in targets with 152. He was 6th in TM YDS share at 34.7%. He had 131 first read targets. The Cowboys want to get him the football. The Amari Cooper departure in Dallas has left the Cowboys with a void for sure, but Lamb still eats. And we have to be able to differentiate the difference between real football and fantasy. In fantasy world, Ceedee Lamb is a low end WR1.

11. Calvin Ridley (Bye - Week 9) - People are scared to think Ridley is going to come back to the NFL with a vengeance. It’s coming folks. I’ve seen Ridley ranked as low as WR27 as high as WR15. But I am putting him at 11 here. Let’s do a hypothetical really quick. If Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin and any other receiver in that same group had Trevor Lawrence as their QB, where would you rank them fantasy wise? If you’re not thinking to yourself hovering around the top 10 you are lying to yourself. Yes, Ridley had a year and a half off. But he’s not playing QB where he has to regenerate the speed of the game. He’s not playing running back where he has to navigate lanes. He’s not playing corner where has to keep up with receivers. He is playing Wide Receiver, where his one job is to catch the ball. That doesn’t just go away. His route running skills don’t disappear. He was touted as one of, not if the best route runner in the NFL before his gambling scandal. He MAY have a 1-2 week rust, but after that, Ridley is a legit WR1 threat. At the very least, his floor is WR15. Draft Ridley with confidence going into this year.

12. Amari Cooper (Bye - Week 5) - Everyone faded Cooper last year after he was traded from Dallas to Cleveland and the Browns QB for 202 was Jacoby Brissett. What Cooper did may have been the most surprising thing of 2022 in the fantasy world. He finished as WR10. That was truly astounding. Cooper thrived in Kevin Stefanski’s offense after a 2021 year in Dallas that was extremely volatile. Cooper ranked 10th in RTE at 86.9%, ranked 7th in AY Share at 41.7%, finished 14th in targets with 128, and in 3rd for Endzone targets at 16. He just had a marvelous, marvelous season. And people are sleeping on him again!!!! That has nothing to do with him though. People have no idea what to expect out of DeShaun Watson in his first full season since 2020. In the 6 games Watson played last year, it wasn’t pretty. But there is room for optimism as Watson is having a full off-season program for the first time in years. But Cooper finished as WR10 with Brissett last year, and if Watson even doesn’t play up to par and plays comparable to Brissett, then we already know that level of play. What’s scary is if Watson is Watson again. Then how high can Cooper fly?

13. DK Metcalf (Bye - Week 5) - Another guy who we thought was going to sink because of the proposed sub-par QB play. Fast forward a year and after Geno took the world by storm for a few months, Metcalf is back in the Top 15 fantasy WR conversation. I have him plugged at 13 here because Smith clearly favored him last year in the redzone. Metcalf led all receivers last season with 22 endzone targets. Of his 141 targets last season (9th), 120 of them were 1st read targets. He had the most receptions in his career with 90, but had the least touchdowns in his career with 6. Having 22 endzone targets with only 6 touchdowns doesn’t add up, so I fully expect that number to go up in 2023. Metcalf had a 15.9 XFP/G in 2022, which was WR12 and finished as WR16 with the lack of touchdown production. I fully expect Metcalf to have a better season than he did last year.

Tier IV

14. DeVonta Smith (Bye - Week 10) - I think Tier 4 starts the receivers that really can’t finish as WR1’s in fantasy for one reason or another, but have clear upside and long term potential. We start with DeVonta Smith, who is the Eagles number 2 receiver, but could be a number one on about 20 other teams. Even while competing with AJ Brown for targets, he finished within the Top 10 with 133 targets. Smith’s XFP/G was only 13.4 last year, which suggests a slight regression, but he has an important part in the Philly offense. He dominated the NFC East last season as well, finishing 3rd in fantasy production against his division. Smith has the big play ability for the Eagles, but as long as he is competing with AJ Brown, its gonna be hard for him to compete for WR1 numbers. His target share though keeps him firmly in the conversation for WR2 numbers.

15. Jaylen Waddle (Bye - Week 10) - Waddle baby Waddle. Jaylen may be the 2nd fastest wide receiver in the league behind his teammate, Tyreek Hill. He was just as successful last year as Hill as Waddle finished as WR8 in 2022. However, his XFP/G came in at 12.8, which suggests a serious regression may be in order, and I tend to agree. While I am big on advanced metrics here, Waddle didn’t come into the top 10 in any of the stats we have mentioned. You only see his name in targets, in which he finished 19th at 117. Waddle benefits from the offense he is in, and being 15th here suggests that he’s a solid WR2. And he is. In Miami, Mike Gesicki is gone and the Fins don’t really have a legitimate WR3 either so Hill and Waddle will garner up all the targets. I think De’Von Achane will garner some attention to, but it really is the Hill and Waddle show in Miami.

16. Diontae Johnson (Bye - Week 6) - This may be the first “shocker” of the rankings. But here is one thing to note. Johnson did not score single touchdown last year. Not one. And his XFP/G was still 15.5. He had the 2nd highest RTE amongst all receivers at a 93.3% rate. He finished as WR30 last year, so he was a flex play without scoring a single time. That will not be the case this year. The Steelers had the worst QB room they’ve had since before the Big Ben era, and now with Kenny Pickett in year two, expect a jump in production. The Steelers have a sneaky good skill group and Johnson led the Steelers with 140 targets last season, which was good for 10th. If you do the math, a handful of touchdowns put Johnson firmly in WR2 range, which is extremely doable.

17. Chris Olave (Bye - Week 11) - I think this kid is ready to take the league by storm. When he came out last year, he was top receiver prospect as I believed he was the most polished receiver. I still believe that. Olave has superstardom written all over him, and his expected jump is noteworthy. Last year Olave finished as WR24 with sub-par QB play all year long and a down year from Alvin Kamara. Even though Derek Carr had his worst year as a pro in 2022, I expect a jump from this Saints offense, and Olave is a huge part of that. Michael Thomas is no longer the alpha in New Orleans. Olave is. He ranked 24th in targets last year with 112, and that number should honestly go up. Olave is big, strong, fast and has great hands. He has all the makings to take a year two leap similar to that of Ceedee Lamb from 21-22.

18. Christian Kirk (Bye - Week 9) - Understand that Kirk last season finished as WR12. He was a WR1 in a 12 team fantasy league last year. After all the hoopla about him not deserving the contract he received, he shoved it in everyone’s face. Kirk is now in the Jags offense for year two, and there is optimism that the offense can be smoother than it was last year. Calvin Ridley is now a part of the group, and that will take away targets from Kirk, but I really think the guy that suffers more in that offense than anyone is Zay Jones. Kirk was all over the field last year for Jacksonville, ranking 16th in targets at 127 and finishing 8th in end zone targets with 13. Zay Jones had 117 targets last year the Jags and that’s where I think Ridley’s lions share comes from. The connection that Kirk and Lawrence have can’t go unmatched. In what will be one of the top passing offenses in the NFL, Kirk will solidify himself as a WR2.

19. Tyler Lockett (Bye - Week 5) - Everyone is waiting for the sky to fall on Lockett. We thought it was gonna be 2021. Then we were sure it was gonna be 2022. All Lockett did was turn in a WR13 year. The long time Seahawk has been consistent now for 5 years. From 2018-2022, Lockett has averaged around 245 fantasy points per year. That’s consistent production from a real good receiver. And with the revival of Geno Smith, there is nothing to signal Lockett will have a down year. While Metcalf ranked 9th in targets in the NFL, Lockett held his own and ranked 23rd with 112. His claim to fame is his big play ability. Now with his role firmly entrenched in the Seattle offense, Lockett feels like he’s due for one big play per game. He has scored in between 8-10 touchdowns in that 5 year stretch, so you can take that to the bank, and the 84 catches he had last year were the 2nd most in his NFL career (100 in 2020). Every time you see his name on draft year, you may want to pass it up for a more “high upside guy”. Don’t. Lockett will produce, as per usual.

20. Michael Pittman (Bye - Week 11) - Did Michael Pittman die and go to heaven?Are we just all out on Pittman now? Pittman finished as WR20 last year with a corpse as his QB. Whether you like it or not, things will be better for Pittman this year. He ranked 4th in RTE% at 91.9 while also finishing 7th in targets with 141. His XFP/G was 15.5. What more does the guy have to do? The quarterback situation in Indianapolis is a question mark with rookie Anthony Richardson and veteran Gardner Minshew. But its gotta be better than 2022, right? It has to be. Pittman is the lone star (currently) in a passing offense that features Alec Pierce as the WR2 and a bunch of unknowns at the TE position. And if Jonathan Taylor actually sits out? It’s Pittman and no one else. Don’t worry about the QB in Indy, Pittman will be fine.

21. DJ Moore (Bye - Week 13) - Does DJ Moore finally have a franchise QB?!?!?!?! We won’t know right away, but Moore is a legitimate receiver who can make defenders miss at an elite rate. Moore finished as WR25 last season with flux at the QB position in Carolina. PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, whoever else may have played QB. Justin Fields did throw the ball deep last year a lot and Moore can go get it. In 2022, Moore ranked 8th in RTE at 87.3% and was 2nd in AY Share at 49.7%. He also finished 25th in targets at 109, but that number should skyrocket with him in Chicago now. Moore has the ceiling to finish as high as WR10, but then could also finish as low as WR30. It really all depends on Justin Fields.

22. Keenan Allen (Bye - Week 5) - Anyone who has Justin Herbert as the QB is in a good position. For the first time since 2016, Allen suffered a significant injury which cost him 7 games. He finished as WR40 hauling in 165 fantasy points. If you pro rate that over 17 games, Allen scores 280 fantasy points, which would have put him as WR7. He’s still got it. That’s my point. And Herbert may be one of the most accurate passers we have in the league, so with Allen being the possession guy that he is, he will get peppered consistently. In watching some Chargers games, when its 3rd down, you have to keep an eye on him, cause he’s probably getting the ball. Yes, the Chargers have mouths to feed. Ekeler, Williams, and now Quentin Johnston. But ya know what? Keenan Allen is still the go to guy on this team. He is a low end WR2.

Tier V

23. Tee Higgins (Bye - Week 7) - I honestly didn’t want to put Higgins here. I’m not crazy about him this year for whatever reason. He had a solid season where he finished as WR19 and put up 220 fantasy points. However, I believe this was a little heightened because Chase did miss 4 games last year. So for a calendar month Higgins was the go to guy. To put things into perspective, Higgins XFP/G last season was 11.5, which is not even in the Top 25 for receivers in 2022. He plays on one of the best offenses in the league with the 2nd best quarterback in the entire NFL, so that doesn’t mean nothing. But he didn’t crack the top 25 in targets in 2022, even with the 4 game absence from Chase. Higgins will finish as a Top 30 receiver without question - he’s a solid NFL receiver. But I actually think he’s more of low end WR2 this year, maybe even closer to a flex.

24. Deebo Samuel (Bye - Week 9) - It seems like that all-pro season from Deebo Samuel was like 10 years ago, right? It was only two. Deebo is not your prototypical receiver and while we saw the peek of it in 2021, I think we saw more of the floor of it in 2022. Samuel finished as WR36 last, which put as a low end flex last season! I don’t think he is going to be that floor this year. Brock Purdy is healthy and he seemed to elevate everyone in that offense last season. And Kyle Shanahan is a certified dog in the offensive scheme system. He will get the ball in his best playmaker’s hands. Deebo still led all of the NFL last year in YACO with 275 yards. But he didn’t rank inside the top 25 in targets, which was something that was a little concerning. It seemed that Aiyuk and Kittle benefited the most from Purdy. I can’t put Deebo that low though - his playmaking ability along with the fact he can break tackles at an elite rate make him a threat to go the distance anytime he touches the ball. His 13.7 XFP/G suggests he is in for an uptick in production, and I agree with that as well.

25. Chris Godwin (Bye - Week 5) - Someone has to eat on this offense, right? More often than not, when teams suffer in QB play from the prior year, its usually the possession guys that don’t suffer the most. Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is a huge drop-off for a guy like Mike Evans, who is a deep ball threat. Mayfield’s game is short and intermediate and I think Godwin will be the guy he looks for consistently. Godwin finished as WR18 last season amidst the poor play by the Bucs offense, and I think he suffers a little bit from the dipped QB play. I mean, you are going from the GOAT to…Baker Mayfield. Godwin finished 11th in targets last year with 138. I do think the Bucs will run the ball way, way more than they have in previous years, but the more simplified Tampa Bay offense should see a similar target share for Godwin. Maybe not 138, but he is still worthy of a mid-round selection and a weekly flex play to start the year.

26. Terry McLaurin (Bye - Week 14) - I have a lot of respect for Scary Terry. Not once in this man’s career has he had any sort of competent QB play, and year after year he puts up stud numbers. Last season he finished as WR14 with Wentz and Heinicke playing hot potato on who wanted the position less. McLaurin’s XFP/G last season was 12.7, which is low end WR2/FLEX play status, and I think that continues this year with 2nd year QB Sam Howell. McLaurin finished 21st in targets last year with 114, and I think that number may go up if Howell can play the position. He finished 9th in the NFL in TM Yds% (31.5), which suggests he gets a large chunk of the Commanders receiving yards. He haunted the NFC East finishing 7th in WR FP against his own division. Out of everyone on this list, McLaurin has the status to climb the highest I think due to the fact that the QB position is unknown. If Howell hits, McLaurin can be a WR1. For now, we leave him where he is.

27. DeAndre Hopkins (Bye - Week 7) - This ranking has more to do with Hopkins situation than it does with him. He served a suspension last year with Arizona and once he came back, Kyler got hurt so it was kind of a lost year for the future Hall of Famer. His XFP/G suggests that he is going to see an increase in production as he had the 7th highest XFP/G (17.3). He is the best WR on the team by a wide margin and will see volume, but the Titans are a run first team and that won’t change. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a poor year where he got hurt towards the end - that won’t change. The offensive line is worse than its been in many, many years. There aren’t a lot of positives on that side of the ball. So color me skeptical about Hopkins in what he can produce in this offense. Also, the last two HOFs that went to Tennessee towards the end of their careers - Randy Moss and Julio Jones; didn’t fare very well. Hopkins is a flex to start the year with WR2 upside.

28. George Pickens (Bye - Week 6) - Talk about talent. Pickens has it by the boat loads. He showed some last year, but only on occasion. The Steelers have a rich history of really great wide receivers; Lynn Swann, Hines Ward, Antonio Brown. I think Pickens can be the next one. This guy has glue for hands and he’s a strong, strong guy. The reason he fell in the draft last year was due to his off the field issues, but we haven’t seen those yet in the NFL. Pickens finished 10th in aDOT last season (Average depth per target) at 15.3, so he is a threat down the field. He also ranked 10th in TM TD Share at 33.3% for Pittsburgh. Him and Diontae Johnson form a real nice duo in Pittsburgh. If Pickett can put it together then there is room for both Pickens and Johnson to both be fantasy relevant.

29. Drake London (Bye - Week 11) - It seems almost like London had a disappointing rookie season last year because you didn’t hear his name a lot. He finished the year as WR29, which was worthy of a flex spot. This Falcons team is full of untapped potential now (London, Pitts, Robinson) but the drafting of Robinson is going to impact all the Falcons weapons. He is immediately the go-to guy on that offense with London being the secondary. Desmond Ridder started the final four games for the Falcons last year with mixed results, and this year he has the keys to the car. London finished 20th in targets with 115. Will that number go up or down? I am honestly not sure - it depends on how much the Falcons run the ball. I think right now London is a long term investment and a week to week matchup flex play until the Falcons and Ridder can solidify the passing game.

30. Brandon Aiyuk (Bye - Week 9) - Aiyuk is a really interesting receiver in San Francisco. He is the most prototypical receiver that the 49ers have in that offense, even more so than Deebo. But Aiyuk is extremely volatile. In 2020-2021 he finished as WR33 and WR34, respectively, but las year he seemed to explode and finished as WR15. I don’t know if that seems sustainable though. Last year was Samuel’s floor, and I think SF will get back to giving him the ball. The Niners also now have a full year of Christian McCaffrey. And get this, when Purdy took over in SF, these were his WR finishes per week: 44, 28, 74, 32, 3, 40. That is…not great. To say the least. But that’s what I mean about volatility. You can’t trust Aiyuk on a week to week basis. Aiyuk’s XFP/G was 12.3, which supports this view as well. It’s not that I’m not high on him, I just think WR15 was kind of a career year for him - at least in San Francisco.

31. Mike Evans (Bye - Week 5) - Ok, ok. I’ll stop the Mike Evans slide. But I do think the slide is real here. Yes, Evans finished 2022 with an XFP/G of 16.9, which ranked 8th in the NFL. He finished as WR17 last year. He was 5th in the NFL against his division last season. His AY Share was 4th at 42.9%. He was 17th in targets at 123. I can go on and on. There is even a case that Evans is a hall of fame receiver when its all set and done; and the numbers support that. But I am also a believer of receivers being on good teams. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not be a good football team. And Baker Mayfield is not a guy who is good throwing the ball down the field. And when Tom Brady is not there to drop dimes 40 yards down the field, I think Evans will suffer. Evans has big play ability, and he was occasionally still make those big plays, but I am going to stay away from him this year. If you do draft him though, he is not an every week starter. Not unless Baker or Kyle Trask find Jesus.

32. Mike Williams (Bye - Week 5) - Big play Mike. That’s what we should call him in LA, since he resides with the QB with possibly the best arm in the entire NFL. As long as Herbert is launching that thing, Williams is a flex option with WR2 upside. He’s not a guy that’s ever going to rank inside the Top 10 or even 25 in any major category. But he has big play ability and can score at an elite rate. His XFP/G last year was 12.2, suggesting that can be a viable flex play. A couple of years ago, Williams was elite and people thought he was going to take off. In 2022, the Chargers offense took a step back. With new OC Kellen Moore, we will see what’s in store for the Chargers offense and Williams in 2023.

33. Jerry Jeudy (Bye - Week 9) - Let me start off by saying this: this is it for Jeudy. This is the year he either becomes a bust or a stud. There is no in between anymore. He was drafted in Round 1 and was expected to become the next great receiver - but he finished 2022 as WR22 in a terrible Broncos offense. With the entrance of Sean Payton, everyone is expecting this offense to be better than it was last year; it has to, right? We believed Courtland Sutton was the guy in the offense, and now it looks like Jeudy is the number one option (finally). Jeudy finished 7th in TM TD% at 35.3. But Sutton led the team with 14 end zone targets. He finished the year with 100 targets and 67 receptions, but he has yet to crack 1,000 yard season in the league. If you’re going to be the guy who takes the risk on Jeudy, then make sure he’s your flex guy to start the season. But like a lot of guys in this tier, he has WR2 upside if he can get going.

34. Christian Watson (Bye - Week 6) - Coming off a rookie season where he flashed in the later months, all eyes are now on Watson. Jordan Love is officially the new QB of the Green Bay Packers, and Watson is WR1. This Packers core is growing up together, so it should be fun to see them rock in the coming years. Watson had a knack for the end zone last season as he finished 7 touchdowns on only 41 catches. He only had 66 targets. Those numbers will go up significantly this season. I can see a world where Watson garners close or even surpasses 100 targets. That immediately makes him draftable. His 9.5 XFP/G last year super low and almost touchdown dependent, but last season was weird for the Packers. A lot of this hinges on Love as well. But I don’t think he’s going to be abysmal. I think he’s going to be fine. Watson is not a stud by any stretch, but he’s a viable flex play depending on the matchup with WR2 upside.

35. Odell Beckham Jr. (Bye - Week 13) - Beckham is the best receiver Lamar Jackson has ever had. Period. That should mean something. Beckham is coming off an ACL injury that he suffered in the 2021 Super Bowl and he didn’t play in 2022. So all is on the table for 2023. Is Beckham slower than usual? Can he be the same Beckham pre-injury? These are all questions that are going to be answered this year. But one thing is certain here. If Odell can turn back the clock for at least one season…watch the hell out. He’s slipping to the late rounds in drafts. If you see him there in Round 10 and are thinking about it: Do it. It can’t hurt. You know the floor, but the upside is real.

Tier VI

36. Jaxon Smith-Njiba (Bye - Week 5) - The first receiver rookie is on the board. And this one is a good one. Smith-Njiba was the first receiver taken int he 2023 draft and should have an instant impact in the Seahawks offense. He will operate out of the slot and has an opportunity to be a slot merchant this season. With Metcalf patrolling the outside and Lockett as the deep threat, the Seahawks were missing a guy to gut the middle of the field. Now they have their guy in Smith-Njiba. Geno Smith was super accurate last year, and even if he takes a dip this year, he should be able to get the ball to the rookie at least 50-60 times this year. When you draft Smith-Njiba, know that he’s not going to be an every week guy. But this is a long term investment. And if you’re in a keeper, obviously target JSN.

37. Michael Thomas (Bye - Week 11) - I don’t know why Michael Thomas is so low on a lot of these boards. When Thomas is healthy, he’s a stud. But his unhappiness in New Orleans has been noted for the past couple of years. In 2023 though, Thomas seems to have the best cast of characters around him since Brees left the Saints. He’s got Olave, Kamara and now Derek Carr as support; so Thomas shouldn’t feel he has to do everything himself. He is in the same group as Odell Beckham. He has to prove it. All Thomas has proved the past couple of seasons is that he can’t stay healthy. That’s why his ADP is so low. I wouldn’t count on him as someone who will be there for you every week, but if he’s healthy, you may have found a gold mine.

38. Kadarius Toney (Bye - Week 10) - We finally get to the first Chiefs receiver. And the reason we mention Toney first is because he has the most talent out of this bunch. After being traded from New York to Kansas City, Toney’s impact grew from week to week. He battled minor injuries during his first season in KC, but going into year two he could have a big impact. Mahomes went his way in the playoffs in big moments; and Toney delivered. With the departure of Juju Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs will now be looking for a new WR1. I think. Toney has the best chance to start the year to take that throne. With the Chiefs receivers though, its Kelce and then everyone else.

39. Elijah Moore (Bye - Week 5) - I love Elijah Moore this year. That’s really it. He was misused on the Jets his entire tenure, and now he is in Cleveland with DeShaun Watson, Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb. Moore is a solid gadget player, and he will be used as such. Moore is a guy that should be able to get in space and make people miss. The Browns already have their outside guys - Cooper and Peoples-Jones. Now they have their Deebo Samuel in Elijah Moore. There will be weeks where Moore is featured, and weeks where he is not. That’s what makes him intriguing and worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.

40. Jordan Addison (Bye - Week 13) - Our second rookie receiver lies in Minnesota. This one is more about opportunity than anything. With the departure of Adam Thielen, Addison has an opportunity to take that number two receiver role. Yes, KJ Osborn is there, but there is also a reason Minnesota drafted a wide receiver with their first round pick. A ton of draft experts had Addison as their top wide receiver prospect and him being drafted late in round one was no surprise. Addison has a consistent QB in Kirk Cousins, so he should get plenty of opportunities. Addison has the best chance I think of all the rookies to get off to the hottest fantasy start.

41. Gabe Davis (Bye - Week 13) - Last season we were all expecting Gabe Davis to take that enormous leap and become a legit WR2 in Buffalo. That never happened. Davis was an underwhelming flex play last year and was on many people’s benches towards the end of the season. He has a chance this year to make up for 2022. There are some encouraging numbers though; he finished 9th in RTE at 87.2% last year and 8th in aDOT at 16. The opportunities were there, he just didn’t convert. In my opinion, this is a make or break year for Davis in Buffalo. It’s also a make or break year for him in fantasy. The people that draft Davis won’t start him nor should they. It’s kind of a wait and see approach.

42. Zay Jones (Bye - Week 9) - Let me start off by saying Zay Jones had a career season last year. He finished as WR26 and had a career season. He saw the most targets he’s ever seen (121), most receptions (82) and most yards (823). And being in an offense with Trevor Lawrence will also help that as well. Unfortunately for Zay, the opportunities this upcoming season may not be as plentiful due to the arrival of Calvin Ridley. More so than Christian Kirk, I think the Ridley targets will eat into Jones more than anyone. This doesn’t mean Jones is going to be bad by any stretch. He is the WR3 in a top 10 NFL offense, which is a real good thing. And there will be weeks where Zay is the Jaguars leading receiver. But it won’t be nearly as consistent as it was in 2022. He is absolutely worth a draft pick late and a roster spot. And if Ridley or Kirk miss anytime, he is a bonafide flex play/WR2.

43. Allen Lazard (Bye - Week 7) - Lazard is attached at the hip with Aaron Rodgers. Pretty good hip to be attached to. And while Lazard has great chemistry with A-Rod, his fantasy relevance is limited. Lazard will never be the number one option on a good team, but he will get his catches every now and then. In his career, he has never finished higher than WR34, which is where he finished last season. And that was without Davante Adams. Now with Garrett Wilson occupying the Adams role in the Rodgers-led Jets offense, expect Lazard to take another back seat fantasy wise. His 2021 finish of WR47 is probably more accurate.

44. Courtland Sutton (Bye - Week 9) - The shine has clearly worn off on Sutton. Last year was the year he was supposed to take off, but he did anything but; like a lot of the Broncos offensive players. It did seem though like Russ favored Jeudy on a more consistent basis, even though Sutton was 8th in the NFL in end zone targets (14). I think at this Sutton is what he is, but a lot of reports out of Denver’s camp say that Sutton has slimmed down a little and looks great in camp. But doesn’t everyone always look great in camp. This Broncos offense is a huge mystery and Sutton fits perfectly into that category. He can be a weekly bench guy or he can be a weekly flex play.

45. Zay Flowers (Bye - Week 13) - Flowers is another first round rookie receiver drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in what seems like a never ending list. Can this one be different though? I actually loved what I saw on tape for Zay Flowers coming out of Boston College and think his game translates to today’s NFL really well. Lets also not forget that Todd Monkey is the new OC in Ravens country, and Monkey does like to toss the pigskin. For the first time in his career, Lamar Jackson has some legitimate weapons with Flowers being one of them. The trio of Andrews, Beckham and Flowers is nothing to sneeze out in Baltimore. And Flowers could finally break the trend of Ravens wide receiver busts.

46. Brandin Cooks (Bye - Week 7) - Remember Brandin Cooks? Yea, he’s in Dallas now. After throwing his temper tantrum in Houston, he stayed in the lone star state, but is now teaming up with Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb. Cooks, at his core, is a burner. Something the Cowboys haven’t really had in a while. But Cooks concussion issues throughout his career strikes fear in fantasy owners, and it kind of strikes fear in me as well. Interestingly enough though, every year Cooks has played 15+ games, he’s never finished lower than WR20. When he doesn’t play that many games, he’s not even roster worthy. So this huge differential is something to take into account as well. My ranking of 46 kinda tells you where I stand.

47. Skyy Moore (Bye - Week 10) - When Moore was drafted last year, people expected him to be the greatest thing since sliced bread because he was playing with Mahomes. That never came to fruition as he was left out in the cold for most of the season. He didn’t score his first touchdown until the Super Bowl! Entering year two though, Moore is expected to take a leap of some sorts. Being a gadget type guy, Andy Reid can always use him in a variety of different ways. But the way the Chiefs run their offense, I don’t think there are a lot of plays on the call sheet for those types of trick plays, jet sweeps and what have you. How relevant was Mecole Hardman in fantasy? Not very. Moore is watched because he is an athletic freak, but it’s going to be tough for him to be consistent.

48. Jakobi Meyers (Bye - Week 13) - Meyers is a good receiver. He finished as WR28 this past season in New England amid some QB controversy. So why do I have him so low this year? Simple. He finished as WR28 where he was “the guy” in New England. He now goes to a place with a similar QB, a familiar face (Josh McDaniels), but now he enters a place where the top dog is Davante Adams. Meyers will not see the same amount of targets he saw with the Pats he will see with Raiders. He also has Hunter Renfrow to compete with, as well as Josh Jacobs presuming he plays. Meyers makes the WR room better for Vegas, but not enough to make a fantasy impact.

49. Hollywood Brown (Bye - Week 14) - Someone has to catch passes in Arizona this year. Brown is recent as of saying that he thinks the Cardinals offense will be “fine”. He might be the only one who thinks that. One thing to note though about Brown - his XFP/G last season was 16.6, which ranked 9th in the NFL. Are we sleeping on him? Maybe. But without Kyler, its hard to envision a world where Brown makes a huge, huge impact. He is worth a late round pick though. The other thing to consider is that if the Cardinals are as poor as we think they’re going to be, there may not be a rush to bring Murray back. That would make Brown almost a liability.

Tier VII

50. Jahan Dotson (Bye - Week 14) - Dotson seemed to find his own last year and was a redzone threat. Even with all though, Dotson finished as WR51. And with the unknown at QB, its hard to rank him much higher than that.

51. Adam Thielen (Bye - Week 7) - Thielen is in a new place with a new coach and a rookie quarterback. The team is significantly less talented than it was in Minnesota and if last year is any indication, Thielen is on the decline.

52. Jalin Hyatt (Bye - Week 13) - The first Giants receiver coming in at 52 tells you all you need to know about this room. Hyatt was my highest ranked receiver coming into the NFL Draft, but its not a good thing when you are asking your potential top dog to be a rookie who needs some work.

53. Tyler Boyd (Bye - Week 7) - Old reliable Tyler Boyd has been in Cincinnati it seems since 1997, but being the number three receiver, his spots are becoming less and less fruitful. Boyd was all the way down to WR38 last season and I think another decline is in store.

54. Jonathan Mingo (Bye - Week 7) - I actually really like the connection Mingo is building with Bryce Young. I think Chark and Thielen will start the year as the go-to receivers, but I do think Mingo, along with JSN and Jordan Addison, have the best opportunity to make a year one impact. Mingo’s game reminds me of DK Metcalf a little, so I hope he gets a chance to make things happen.

55. KJ Osborn (Bye - Week 13) - Osborn kinda took off late during the year last season, but the draft pick of Jordan Addison disspelled any increased role from Osborn going into 2023. More of the same type of season is in for KJ. He has a role, but a limited one in fantasy.

56. Quentin Johnston (Bye - Week 5) - The Chargers rookie walks into a crowded, crowded skill group in Los Angeles. I think his draft pick is one that will eventually replace Keenan Allen, but going into year one I would surprised if Johnston makes a real fantasy impact.

57. Donovan Peoples-Jones (Bye - Week 5) - DPJ should see more playing time. He is nice outside threat that will make plays for Cleveland. He just doesn’t make enough to make him a serious every week starter in fantasy. He should be a late round draft pick though.

58. Juju Smith-Schuster (Bye - Week 11) - Juju was WR27 with Patrick Mahomes and being the number one guy in KC. His fantasy value absolutely plummets as he goes to New England with Mac Jones now. Smith-Schuster is not going to be someone who burns a guy for 60 yards through the air or with YAC. He is a possession receiver, and being in NE, that means nothing for fantasy.

59. Romeo Doubs (Bye - Week 6) - Doubs turned heads in pre-season last season but was never able to transfer it to the field. He now has a second chance to do that, but this time with the quarterback in pre-season he was doing it with - Jordan Love. In terms of passing options, he is probably third trailing Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.

60. Treylon Burks (Bye - Week 7) - The 1st round rookie from last year was downright terrible. He was supposed to replace AJ Brown and yet he showed up to camp last year out of shape and that predicate his entire season. The Titans brought in DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season to be the number one guy, and Chig Okonkwo is making some headway for targets as well. I’m not calling Burks a bust yet, but another year similar to last year and he will have that label.

61. Rashod Bateman (Bye - Week 13) - The addition of both Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers leaves the oft-injured Bateman as a distant afterthought in the Ravens passing game. He will still see ample opportunities as he was a first round selection just a couple of seasons ago, but its hard to expect anything from now with all the additions in the passing game.

Tier VIII

62. John Metchie III (Bye - Week 7) - Metchie will play his rookie season after battling 2022 with health issues. When he was healthy, he was really solid at Alabama. I put him in the same group as Jalin Hyatt, although coming off the health issue, it may take longer to adjust.

63. Jameson Williams (Bye - Week 9) - Williams is missing the first six games because of a gambling violation, but when he returns he will likely see WR2 duties. Last year when he returned it was not pretty, and he seems to have a slight drop problem. This will be year 2/2 where he doesn’t play the full season.

64. Darnell Mooney (Bye - Week 13) - The Bears finally have an alpha in DJ Moore in the receiver room. And the battle for the number two spot will be between Mooney and Chase Claypool, but neither of them has really been able to seize the opportunity. I don’t think that’s a great thing. Mooney has an apt to get injured as well.

64. Tank Dell (Bye - Week 7) - This little dynamo is like an energizer bunny who can lineup anywhere on the field for the Texans. Like all the other Houston receivers though, the target share is going to be a minefield.

65. Rashee Rice (Bye - Week 10) - For some reason, Rice reminds me of Dwayne Bowe. And for Chiefs fans, that’s a real good thing. The only issue is that if Skyy Moore had trouble getting on the field last year, I think Rice may find similar troubles this year. But this dude can ball, and if he gets an opportunity, he can skyrocket up these rankings.

66. Darius Slayton (Bye - Week 13) - Slayton is probably the best receiver right now the Giants have, but with the addition of Hyatt, Parris Campbell and Darren Waller, I don’t think there is a lot of room for Slayton to solidify himself as an every week option.

67. Alec Pierce (Bye - Week 11) - A second year receiver with a rookie QB who needs work. Not to mention that Pierce was a little behind the 8 ball last season as well. Love Pierce the prospect, but maybe one year too early on a breakout for this guy.

68. Van Jefferson (Bye - Week 10) - Jefferson now steps into the Allen Robinson role of WR2 for the Rams. Jefferson has some talent, but the Rams offense was a horror show last year even with Stafford. Kupp also garners almost all of the attention, and with Higbee being option number its Jefferson and Tutu Atwell to fight for targets.

69. DJ Chark (Bye - Week 7) - The deep threat option last season didn’t finish inside the top 60. He’s had one season (2019) where he finished inside the Top 20. Other than that, his highest finish has been WR49 in 2020. Avoid.

70. Curtis Samuel (Bye - Week 14) - You remember when people were fighting for Samuel’s services back in 2021. While he had a solid year last year, I think Dotson overtakes him for WR2 duties this year, as he was an earlier round pick while Samuel takes that gadget role. Problem is, in Washington, they don’t much of an offense.

71. Hunter Renfrow (Bye - Week 13) - Don’t forget about Hunter! An injury riddled 2022 saw people drop him off like flies, but he still has a place in the offense. The connection with Jimmy G is the question though as it seemed him and Derek Carr were always on the same page.

Tier IX

72. Nico Collins (Bye - Week 7) - Maybe the main WR option in Houston to start, but could end up being the 4th by seasons end.

73. Rashid Shaheed (Bye - Week 11) - Apart from this dude’s name, Shaheed is a distant 4th-5th option in the Saints pass game.

74. Parris Campbell (Bye - Week 13) - Everyone thinks this guy is gonna turn into Mike Evans and he just…doesn’t.

75. Mack Hollins (Bye - Week 11) - This bruising receiver is now in Atlanta where he can make some tough, contested catches.

76. Rondale Moore (Bye - Week 14) - Every team has to have two receivers ranked…right?

77. Marvin Mims Jr. (Bye - Week 9) - With the injury to KJ Hamler, Mims may actually produce as a rookie.

78. DeVante Parker (Bye - Week 11) - See above for the two receiver thing.

Tier X

79. Chase Claypool (Bye - Week 13) - This guy fell off a cliff that I don’t think he’ll ever be able to climb back up from.

***Bonus***

80. Allen Robinson II (Bye - Week 6) - Cause Why Not.

Fantasy Football SZN - Running Backs

The most premium position in Fantasy Football - the Running Back. It has been steadily declining in value over the last few years, and now more than ever, the days of the three down running back are far and few between. The two running back system is in full effect and there is nothing we can do to stop it. Being able to correctly identify solid running backs for fantasy is a skill that can catapult you to the top in more years than not. People want to talk about the “Zero RB” theory and how not drafting a RB until Round 10 is fine. It’s not. You should always try to get the most points as humanly possible at every position. Our tiers below for the position explain where we think the dip starts, but there is talent even as deep as the 50s. You can find a diamond in the rough late, but you can’t bank on those guys. I’m not saying you need to draft a RB in Round 1, but you should have some sort of stud before the 4th round. Onto the rankings….

Running Back Tiers 2023

* Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are omitted as they currently aren’t on an NFL Roster.

Tier I

1. Christian McCaffrey (Bye - Week 9) - The human cyborg. Christian McCaffrey just continues to take names. Last year he was finally healthy and finished as the RB2 behind Austin Ekeler. I think it’s easy to say that CMC is the most well rounded back in league. He runs the ball well and catches the ball well, breaks tackles and scores touchdowns. What more can you ask for? His XFP/G (Expected Fantasy Point Per Game) last season was 18.6, which was good for third amongst all running backs. The name of the game is volume for running backs, and CMC does plenty of that. For Carolina and San Francisco last year, he took 72.8% of the snaps, 244 rushing attempts and had 104 targets. And San Francisco didn’t have any major changes to their offense this season. Kyle Shanahan is still calling plays and if Purdy is healthy, their offense is better. All in all, as long as CMC stays healthy, he is the clear cut RB1 amongst all fantasy.

2. Saquon Barkley (Bye - Week 13) - This was a tough call. But the numbers are heavily in Barkley’s favor here. In the new Brian Daboll offense, Barkley excelled and had his best season since his rookie year. The skill players on the Giants are better this year, so all the focus shouldn’t be on the running back. His XFP/G sits at 17.8 and his XFP for the 2023 season is expected to be slightly better if you can believe that. Barkley led the NFL in Snap % (80.5), was 4th in rushing attempts (295) and 7th in Rush Att %, which is the amount of rushing attempts you get compared to the whole team (59.1%) He also finished inside the Top 10 in targets with 73, tied with Alvin Kamara. He did everything for the G-Men last year, and the ranking at two is due to the fact that he just eats up the lions share of everything the Giants do. Draft Barkley with confidence.

3. Austin Ekeler (Bye - Week 5) - We already had the human cyborg. This is the human pinball. All Austin Ekeler does is catch passes and score touchdowns. The PPR nightmare hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down. Last year he was absolutely absurd as he led all fantasy backs in points (357.7) and total touchdowns with 18. Let’s dive in to some of these numbers, shall we? Ekeler was 4th in the NFL in TD Rate amongst RB (6.4%) while he had 123 receiving targets. Absolutely absurd. He’s not just a receiver though - he ran for over 900 yards on the ground last year as well. But there is a major difference this year. Joe Lombardi is out as the OC while Kellen Moore is in. Someone needed to pay for that 27-0 choke job in January. So how did the Cowboys running backs do last year? Well, it’s interesting. Tony Pollard was 4th in the league in Explosive Run %, but Ekeler doesn’t really qualify as an explosive runner. Pollard was 3rd in the NFL in yards after contact. Ok, I can buy that - Ekeler has a tendency to bounce off guys and is thicker than Pollard. Here is my biggest issue though. Neither Pollard nor Zeke Elliott last year were in the Top 25 of Snap % while Ekeler was 16th. Did Kellen Moore like to use two backs, or did he just have two talented backs so he used them? Elliott was 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts (231) so Moore does run the ball. Lastly, while Herbert had a checkdown percentage north of 11%, Dak’s last year was around 8.5%, so there is a slight dip there. What am I saying with all this. I expect a slight regression from Ekeler. Not one to drop him out of Tier 1 though. He is still the Chargers best skill player and should have more than 100 targets again. I do wonder though if the Chargers will use a different back in goal line situations. We all remember how many touchdowns Elliott vultured away from Pollard last year…

Tier II

4. Bijan Robinson (Bye - Week 11) - I just couldn’t put a rookie in Tier 1. I just couldn’t. But Mr. Robinson is the absolute real deal. I can say that without him playing a down yet. This jack of all trades was the talk of college football last year because of everything he did.  He’s explosive, he accelerates, his catching ability is off the charts, and his route running is something to behold. Robinson has already been seen lining up on the outside during Falcons training camp cooking defenders in 1 on 1 drills. While people may shy away because Desmond Ridder is the QB, I am not. Players make plays. And Robinson steps into a situation where he immediately becomes the best skill player on the offense. I can see a very similar season that Saquon had his rookie year. Just taking the league by storm. The running back room is crowded yes, but both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson played above their class last year, and the XFP/G suggests, they will both be regression candidates in 2023. Draft Robinson willingly, and if you’re in a keeper/dynasty league, you better be drafting him 1st overall.

5. Rhamondre Stevenson (Bye - Week 11) - This may shock some people to see Stevenson this high, but when you dig deep, you realize that Stevenson is just scratching the surface. The next sentence may be wild, but it needs to be said. Rhamondre Stevenson is the closest back we have right now to Christian McCaffrey. Yup. Let that sink in. You think I can’t back it up? Stevenson had a snap share in a Patriots offense of 65.8%, which was good for 9th in the NFL…as a rookie. He did not crack the Top 10 in rushing attempts, so he is still super fresh going into year two. He was third in the NFL in targets with 87. That number blew me away. Rhamondre Stevenson had 87 targets last season. And lastly, the man should see a spike in fantasy points next season, as his XFP outweighed his actual production last year. All this on top of the fact that he had a combo of defensive coordinator/special teams coach as his offensive coordinator. He now has a real OC in Bill O’Brien, so I fully expect Stevenson to see 100+ targets in the pass game and crack the Top 10 in rushing attempts. Damien Harris is gone; James Robinson is gone. There is no one to take carries. The Patriots best WR is Devante Parker. It’s the Rhamondre Stevenson show - hop on the train. All aboard.

6. Tony Pollard (Bye - Week 7) - We have calling for TP to get the feature role in the offense for a couple of years now. The time finally came at the latter half of last year, and Pollard delivered. He broke his leg in the playoffs, but is coming back fully healthy in time for training camp and is all systems go. Mike McCarthy is now calling the plays, so things will be a tad different, but Pollard remains the RB1 by a wide margin. Pollard ranked 4th in Exp Run% (Explosive Run %, which is 15+ yards) with an 8.8% clip. He ranked third in YACO (Yards after contact) at 73.6%. The great thing about Pollard is that Ezekiel Elliott had more carries than he did last year, so there is not a lot of tread on those tires. He also has good hands, so him catching balls out of the backfield is something that will transpire. Dalton Schultz is gone, so after Ceedee Lamb, there is an argument to be made that Dak’s next favorite target may be Pollard. This is a Cowboys offense that I believe has taken a step back in the pass game. The run game was always their bread and butter, and it gets a big jolt with TP taking over for Zeke. Pollard to the moon.

7. Nick Chubb (Bye - Week 5) - The best pure runner in the NFL resides in Cleveland. A literal wrecking ball, Nick Chubb is the type of running back that would do well in any era of football. He is a fierce downhill runner that can drag people yards at a time. He led the league last year with 93 MTF (Missed Tackles Forced). To put that in perspective, the next closest individual had 66. Chubb amassed 302 carries last year, which is a lot, but only accounted for 57% of the snaps in Cleveland. Kareem Hunt is gone. D’Ernest Johnson is gone. Who is taking snaps away from Chubb now? Chubb currently has the largest XFP regression rate of 55(!!) But I’m not buying it. He may even see an increase in the pass game. And for the first time in his career, he has a threat at the QB position, so all eyes won’t be on him. The Browns offensive line is a unit, and as long as they stay intact, Chubb will challenge for the rushing title yet again.

8. Josh Jacobs (Bye - Week 13) - For the first time in his career, Josh Jacobs was finally the focal point of the offense. He rewarded the Raiders with a monster season. A season that has yet to be rewarded by the opposite side. When we talk about usage, no one had more than Jacobs last year. With running backs, the name of the game is volume, and Jacobs had it by the thousands last season. Jacobs XFP/G was 17.8, which was good for 5th among all running backs. He ranked third in i5% (Carries inside the 5 yard line) at 85.7%. He was 2nd in Snap % at 75.2; second in rushing attempts at 340 and had the highest Rush Att % in the league at 79.4%, which was a 4% gap than the second highest player. We should even see a bigger volume in the pass game from Jacobs this year, which would catapult him a little bit too. But we have to temper our expectations. Last year was probably the best year he will ever have as a pro, so his 28.1 regression number is probably accurate. If I didn’t think Jacobs would regress, he would be number one on this list. The big question mark remains the contract and whether or not he will play on the franchise tag. If he does, Jacobs is a low-end fantasy RB1.

9. Derrick Henry (Bye - Week 7) - Is this the year that Derrick Henry slows down? A lot of people are suggesting it. A couple of things are true here. Is he older? Yes. Is the offense worse? Yes. Is the O-line worse? Yes. Did the Titans draft a young, spry running back who runs like the wind (more on him later). Yes. All these things are true. What’s also true is that Henry remains the best bruising running back in the league. He is still one of, if not the only back that gets better as the game goes on. It seems like every year we think Henry is out of gas, and every year he tells us to hold his beer. Last season, Henry ranked 5th in i5 at 75%, 3rd in MTF (64), 4th in YACO (73.5%) and had a 16.9 XFP/G, which remained in the Top 10 of fantasy running backs. He did all this while managing yet another year inside the Top 10 of Snap%, and ranking first and second respectively in Rushing Attempts (349) and Rush Att% (75.4). The man doesn’t stop. The XFP suggest he will regress this year, and I think that is possible with the fact that the offensive line is not what it used to be. Ben Jones is gone as is Taylor Lewan. And last season Henry ranked 5th in STUFF% (49.6). There is cause for concern. But the reward outweighs the risk here. You don’t want to be the one who passed on double digit touchdowns and a Top 10 fantasy finish yet again.

Tier III

10. Najee Harris (Bye - Week 6) - I am bullish on Harris this season. He absolutely took a step back last year as a sophomore, but the Steelers were in a transition year. The line was the worst it had been in a while, and their starting Quarterback was Mitch Trubisky. Fast forward a year and now Kenny Pickett has a handle on the QB spot (we think) and the offense just seems to be more mature. But make no mistake, Harris is still the focal point of this offense. Last year he ranked T-10th in the NFL amongst running backs in Snap% at 65.5, and was 5th overall in the amount of carries he had (272). He also ranked 5th in MTF amongst all running backs, so lets not forget Harris is a bruiser. Mike Tomlin is one of the smartest coaches in the NFL, and he knows that Harris is his best option right now. George Pickens is evolving, but it will take time for Pickett to really get in a groove. We spoke about him in our QB piece and give our thoughts, so be sure to check that out. One thing I want to see more from Harris is him in the passing game. Coming out of school he did have hands and we have yet to really see that in the NFL. Very Josh Jacobs-esque. As I’m writing this piece I can actually say of all the running backs this year, I think Harris has the highest ability to have that “Jacobs jump” from last year to this year. His XFP suggests that as well as according to the numbers, we should be able to see a significant increase in his production this year. Harris is a low-end RB1 for the year - expect to him to go towards the middle of Round 2 in most drafts.

11. Jonathan Taylor (Bye - Week 11) - Contingent that he plays, JT is still a very, very good running back. Just two short years ago, Taylor led the league in rushing and was being heralded as the best young back in the league. Now he’s “injured” and has asked for a trade from Indianapolis. Wherever he ends up, he will be a stud. Taylor’s XFP/G last year was 15.6, which ranked 5th in the entire league. He finished as RB33 last year. I am expecting a FULL return to form from Taylor as the numbers suggest he’s in for a massive year. He still ranked 7th in SNAP at 69.7% and 5th in Rush Att % at 63.8. The numbers are there. And with a rookie QB now in Anthony Richardson and a new HC in Shane Steichen, look for Taylor to be a horse this year. Again, assuming he plays. We all saw what Miles Sanders did last year with Philly, yes? After everyone, including myself, was throwing him in the dumpster. His season got him a new contract in Carolina and is the undisputed RB1 there with a rookie QB himself. Taylor will perform whether he is in Indy, Denver, Kansas City or anywhere else in the league. His game could be relevant anywhere.

12. Breece Hall (Bye - Week 7) - Last year I traded for Breece Hall to complete what I thought was a near perfect team. He was the one guy I was missing. The first game he played for me? The Broncos game. We all know how that went - it was the last game of the season for Hall as he suffered his ACL injury. Fast forward to now and Hall is slowly being back integrated into the Jets offense. There really is a lot to unpack here with this one. First, lets actually point out how good Breece Hall was last year. Before his injury, Hall ranked 2nd in Exp Run at 10%, only trailing James Cook. He was the front runner for ROTY before he got hurt. He did all this while Zach Wilson was playing Quarterback and playing behind a sub par offensive line. Enter Aaron Rodgers. That alone will make Hall better. But now let’s talk about the clouds hanging over him this year. Everyone has seen the numbers. Players coming off ACL injuries, especially running backs, tend to struggle mightily in their first year back. It’s the second year back where they seem to get their legs back under them. Saquon Barkley was the latest example. Two years ago he was miserable, and last year he had his best year since his rookie campaign. Second, the Jets have made it very clear that they are looking for another running back. They hosted Dalvin Cook and are reportedly in on Ezekiel Elliott as well. The Jets don’t want to rush Hall, and that is the right approach. Putting Hall as an RB1 is a long term investment, and me personally, I may stay away this year in a redraft. But if you are in a keeper/dynasty league and Hall is available, I would absolutely snatch him up. With him splitting carries in the beginning of the year and maybe getting more volume in the middle and end of the year, I still think he finishes in the Top 20.

Tier IV

13. Dameon Pierce (Bye - Week 7) - I believe this is where the RBs take a little bit of a dip. After Hall, a lot of these guys are mid rounders (4-6). We start here with Damien Pierce, as I think he is the best of this next bunch. I may be giving something away here, but I expect the Texans to be better than a lot of people think. I think they finish 2nd in the AFC South, and that is partly due to Pierce. This is another situation with a rookie QB (Stroud) and a rookie HC (Ryans), and even though Pierce kind of faded towards the end of last year, I am contributing that to the rookie wall. Pierce’s XFP/G last year was 14.7, which was within the Top 10 of running backs. We should see an improved performance from him last year. Here are a couple of other numbers that may surprise you about Pierce. For those of you that don’t remember, Dameon Pierce did not go down last season. He ranked 2nd in YACO at 75.3% and ranked 15th in SNAP at 63.7%. Now, this year the Texans added Devin Singletary to their RB room, which should give Pierce a little bit of a break. But the RB room for Houston was crowded last year and Pierce still stood out. If he improve his passing game skills a smidge, he is a very, very solid RB2.

14. Joe Mixon (Bye - Week 7) - Where is the notion that everyone on planet earth seems to think that Joe Mixon fell off a cliff? What if I told you that Mixon finished as RB11 last year. Yes, that is true. In a 12 team league, that’s low end RB1. In a 10 team league, he is top RB2. I truly don’t get the hate. Yes, he averaged less than 4 YPC last season. But let’s look at this guys usage from last season. Mixon ranked 12th in SNAP% at 65.4, and 6th in RushATT% at 62.3. His XFP/G last year was 18.8. That was good for second in the entire league behind only Austin Ekeler. Yes, Mixon had a higher XFP/G than Christian McCaffrey. You want pass game? Sure, I got that too. 70 targets last season for Mixon, which was good for 8th in the NFL across all running backs. Now, take into account he played 15 games last year, not 17. Mixon may not break off runs like Tony Pollard, or break tackles like Derrick Henry, or even catch passes like CMC, but the volume he gets is as good as anyone in the NFL. There were 4 games last year where Mixon finished in single digits for fantasy points, and two of those were in Week 1-3. No one is asking him to be a Top 5 running back, but he may be the most solid RB2 you can get your hands on.

15. Alvin Kamara (Bye - Week 11) - Another guy where I truly don’t understand the hate. As the guy in New Orleans who is still the undisputed RB1, Kamara did have a bit of a down year last year. But he thrives himself off the passing game, and this year the Saints upgraded in a big way by going from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr. He is reportedly been lining up on the outside in training camp alongside Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. And I love that idea. Kamara is the best when he is in space, and it seems like they are getting back to those routes. Kamara finished as RB16 last season where he was really the primary back for the entire year. If that seems low for him, its because it is. But Kamara always thrived when he had another back besides him aka the Mark Ingram days. It looks like the Saints went back to their roots - they signed Jamaal Williams from the Lions in the off-season. Williams will take the bulk, if not all of the goal line carries from Kamara, but Kamara will get the lions share of those. He is suspended for the first three weeks of the season, but once he returns I think he will be a solid play. He ranked 5th in targets last year with 73, and I think that number can go up this year actually. Kamara was on the field 69.7% of the time last season, which was good for 6th in the NFL. Will that number go down? Probably, but if the targets go up and the Saints get him in space more, I think he can be a solid RB2. I think he RB1 days are over for Kamara though.

16. Travis Etienne Jr. (Bye - Week 9) - Etienne jumped off the page last year for the Jaguars as he became the latest in a line of Jags running backs to be successful. Fred Taylor, MJD, Leonard Fournette, and now ETN. He was like a rocket last year for Jacksonville and he finished the year as RB17. His XFP/G last year was 12.8, which may seem low, but over a 17 game stretch that comes out to 217.6 over the course of the year. We are expected to see a slight aggression on him this year, but with the arrival of Tank Bigsby and Calvin Ridley, I am not 100% that will be the case. Bigsby will definitely take carries away from Etienne, but its not going to be as much as you think. Doug Pederson recently had a press conference where he stated that Etienne could have 1,600-1,700 yards on the ground this season. I think that’s a stretch, but can I see 1,400? Maybe. Etienne’s SNAP% was at 59.4, but he did not rank inside the Top 10 for Rushing attempts and Rush Att%. I don’t think that’s concerning, but it just means I don’t expect a huge, huge uptick from ETN. He finished as RB17, and that’s a comfortable RB2 spot. I wouldn’t differ from that this year.

17. Aaron Jones (Bye - Week 6) - The conundrum of Aaron Jones continues to be a sphinx. Jones was maybe the most volatile back last year as there were games where he can score 30 points, or he can score 5. The addition of AJ Dillon has severely hampered what Aaron Jones can do. And it’s quite maddening, because when Jones gets an opportunity he can be one of the top 12 backs in the league. He again averaged more than 5 YPC, which he has done 4/6 seasons. He ranked 7th in targets with 72, and ranked 20th in SNAP at a 58% clip. AJ Dillon vultures away some touchdowns from Jones, and that obviously hurts his value. Last season, he had the 3rd worst TD Rate amongst all running backs at .9% (yes, less than 1%). Jones only had 2 rushing touchdowns last year as opposed to 5 receiving touchdowns. As long as Dillon is there, the rushing touchdown number will be limited. Jones is fantasy RB2 relevant because of his pass catching ability. He caught 59 passes last year for 395 yards. That’s almost 100 points alone on just receiving yards. He also did run for 1,100 yards last year. So the ability is there. And I will always think Aaron Jones can do more than he is asked to do, but as long as Dillon is there, Jones is an RB2.

18. D’Andre Swift (Bye - Week 10) - Swift is now in Philadelphia where I think his situation improves greatly. In Detroit, he was hampered with the fact that they didn’t trust him to run the ball with enough efficiency. Jamaal Williams ranked inside the Top 10 in rushing attempts last year. Swift only had 99 carries throughout all of 2022. And he still came in as RB21. That’s actually fascinating when you break it down. Swift finished with the second worst i5 at 11.8%, but finished 10th in RB targets at 67. He is now in Philadelphia, and with Sanders now in Carolina, there really isn’t a bruising back to stop him. Kenneth Gainwell is there, and we can get to him later, but I think for the first time in his career, Swift should see the bulk of the carries during a season, assuming he stays healthy. We all saw what the Eagles were able to do with Sanders last year, and I think Swift is a better runner than Sanders. He offers the ability to bust runs open while also giving Jalen Hurts a legitimate passing option at running back.

19. Jahmyrr Gibbs (Bye - Week 9) - One of the most fascinating draft picks in the 2023 draft. When the Lions selected Gibbs, they still had the aforementioned Swift, but traded him a couple of days later. During our draft review process, Gibbs came in as my RB2 behind Bijan Robinson, and I voiced that he was an elite pass catching back. He has since been lining up in the backfield and on the outside for the Lions. With the new and improved passing game from Detroit, Gibbs potential is sky high. They also signed David Montgomery to put a veteran in the room, which is smart, but Gibbs is the more talented of the two. They may split carries in the beginning, but I think as the season goes on, Gibbs will see more and more touches. Think Austin Ekeler lite when you think of Jahmyrr Gibbs. OC Ben Johnson did excellent with Swift and Williams last year, and now he has a new tandem with Gibbs and Montgomery. In keeper/dynasty leagues, Gibbs has back end Round 1 value.

20. Javonte Williams (Bye - Week 9) - People forget about Williams last year. He was on an absolute tear before he got hurt. But now he is practicing, and Sean Payton and the Broncos players are raving about how good he looks. I get it, they are supposed to do that. But if Williams is ready for the regular season, then he is absolutely worthy of a mid round pick in fantasy. All suggestions are that players coming off these injuries struggle in their first year, and I don’t think that Williams is immune from that. I would suggest making him a weekly flex option to start the year. But as the year goes on, Williams will be better. And if you’re in a keep/dynasty league, the long term investment is worth. When you’re in the hunt for a playoff spot in November for fantasy, and you’re counting your lucky stars you drafted Javonte Williams, you’ll know who to thank.

21. Miles Sanders (Bye - Week 7) - Sanders got paid this off-season, and now he is in Carolina with a rookie QB (Young) and a new HC in Frank Reich. It seemed like Sanders unlocked another gear last season for the Eagles. For the first time in his career he ran for over 1,000 yards (1,269) and had a 4.9 YPC. A couple of things to note here though about Sanders that may be used against him. He was the worst RB in the league when it came to YACO last year (52.6%) and his XFP/G was 12, which tracks him as a regression candidate for 2023. He also doesn’t catch the ball. He was only targeted 26 times during the season last year and caught 20 passes. He really is a run only running back and when you’re as small as Sanders, you need that big burst to get you going. I have Sanders as an RB2 because he’s the only running back in the room with a real chance to make a change. Reich will lean on him heavily at the beginning of the season to get things going. Running backs are always a rookie QB’s best friend.

22. James Cook (Bye - Week 13) - This is the second running back I’m super high on this year. Cook has a lot of numbers that point the arrow up for him this year. Right now he is known as the younger brother of Dalvin Cook, but after this year I think that the wrap around him will be very different. Cook ranked as the best back in the NFL when it came to EXP Run% (12.4). And Cook should be very, very….very fresh going into 2023. Cook ranked 4th worst in Rush ATT % (20.7%) and was dead last among all qualifying running backs in SNAP (24.9%). Last year, the Bills had Devin Singletary carry most of the load for Buffalo, and now Damien Harris is with Cook. Harris lost his job last year to Rhamondre Stevenson in New England, and even if these two split carries in the beginning of the year, the Bills will realize that the upside is with Cook. His ability in the pass game is unquestioned, and he can finally be the answer to the Bills long awaited running back woes we have been discussing for years.

Tier V

23. James Conner (Bye - Week 14) - The darling of the 2021 fantasy season, James Conner crashed back to earth in 2022. If you look at Conner’s numbers from 2021-2022, they won’t seem different, except for one stat; touchdowns. He dipped from 15 in 2021 to 7 in 2022. That was the big outlier. But there is some reason for optimism here. You guessed it - volume. Conner is one of few three down backs left in the NFL, and it showed in 2022. Conner ranked 5th in SNAP% at 71.3 and 10th in RushATT% at 54.6. His XFP/G came in at 15, which over a 17 game clip comes in at 255 fantasy points. Last year Conner finished as RB19 at 201.3 fantasy points in only 13 games. His fantasy production lies probably somewhere in the middle. Don’t get me wrong, the Cardinals will be bad, but Conner will get his. He is one of the safest bets as a low end RB2 in fantasy this year.

24. Alexander Mattison (Bye - Week 13) - Over at PSP, John has been clamoring for two years now that Mattison can do what Dalvin Cook was doing. Now he will get his chance. Mattison is the undisputed number one back in the room for 2023, and that is an interesting concept. Mattison looked spry and was able to catch the ball coming out of the backfield last year. I think expecting Dalvin Cook numbers are a little bit of a tall order as he doesn’t have the hands that Cook has. I do believe, however, that he can be just as effective as a runner as Cook was. Mattison ranked 2nd in TD Rate last year among all RBs (6.8%) and saw the 3rd worst i5 (14.3%). That i5 is bound to go up with no Cook, while the TD rate shows his explosiveness in the open field. The Vikings offensive line has been so-so for a couple of years now, but the left side of line with Darrisaw has been pretty solid. And it seems every time Cook or Pattison got loose last year it was on the left side. The projections are calling for Mattison to run for almost 1,000 yards. I can see that if he stays healthy. But his lower ceiling in the receiving department caps his offensive production from a fantasy perspective. I have Mattison as a low end RB2, high end flex option on a week to week basis, but with a higher ceiling than most RB2 players.

25. Rachaad White - (Bye - Week 5) - White is another player that’s hard to pinpoint. On one hand, the Buccaneers have fallen far from grace from where they were in 2020. Todd Bowles is one of the worst HC in the NFL, they fired Byron Leftwich (wrongly), their QB competition is between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, and their defense seems old. It probably won’t be a good year for Tampa. And on top of all that, White was disappointing last season. White was worst running back in the NFL at TD Rate (.8%). However, White’s XFP/G last season was 9.1, which averaged out to the fact that we should see an improvement in 2023. Consider me a skeptic. I’m a big proponent of grabbing players on good teams if they aren’t superstars, and White falls into that category. Do I think he can perform? Yes, absolutely. Am I wait and see on him, as in, I’ll do it next season. Yes, absolutely.

26. Jamaal Williams (Bye - Week 11) - Everyone reading this right now thinks that Jamaal Williams will have the James Conner regression tag did last season. I mentioned Conner above at 22 to see what I think of his season last year. Let me remind people of a couple of things here. Jamaal Williams split carries with Aaron Jones in Green Bay. He split carries with D’Andre Swift last season in Detroit. What do you think he’s going to do this year? And many, including myself, think Jones and Swift are better backs than Williams. But the emotional hard knocks hero from 2022 has an aura around him where players seem to navigate to him and coaches seem to love him. He has been a goal line back his entire career, and don’t expect that to change in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara’s best seasons were when he was part of a two headed monster. The Saints are trying to re-create that. Will Williams score 18 touchdowns again this year? You can’t bank on that, so lets say no. Which is why I have him at 25 and not 12. That’s where Williams finished last year - RB12. That’s not sustainable. But is he a possible flex play every week? Sure, without a doubt. He won’t do a lot in the pass game, but he can score and will get some serious rushing yards. A lot of pundits and experts are down on him this year, and if the Saints end up signing Kareem Hunt, I will admit that will plummet him down my charts. But for now, 25 seems like a good spot.

27. Cam Akers (Bye - Week 10) - Talk about a question mark. When Akers was drafted, he was thought of as a “steal” and the next great Rams running back. Well, 2022 saw him in the doghouse up until December, and then the Rams came to their senses and unleashes him. He had a good December. He scored, made some catches, etc. But I don’t trust Sean McVay. Akers was the only viable option he had down the stretch last year when the Rams were already out of it. Matthew Stafford is back and presumably healthy. Cooper Kupp is back and presumably healthy. Another year of Higbee. McVay loves throwing the ball. Especially to Cooper Kupp. It’s just hard to imagine a world where the Rams and this staff run the ball in a consistent manner. They may be playing from behind a lot as well, so who knows. They have to run the ball yes, and Akers is number one on the depth chart. But does anyone remember Kyren Williams from last year? Yup, I thought so. Flex play for Akers at best.

28. Kenneth Walker III (Bye - Week 5) - I can’t begin to explain to you how out I am on Kenneth Walker this season. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks just kinda burn these backs after they have successful seasons - Rashaad Penny being the latest one. And the numbers suggest Walker is due for a real regression season. Kenneth Walker, unbelievable, got 100% of the carries for the Seahawks inside the 5 yard line last season. 100%. I’ll say it again. 100%. So that means that if Walker doesn’t get one carry inside the 5 this year, then that’s not as many as last year. Anddddddd, the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonett. Walker was 2nd in Stuff% at 55.3, only trailing James Robinson. Walker was 2nd worst in YACO at 53.1%. His XFP/G was 12.3, which suggests a serious regression this year. Should I go on? He was 19th in SNAP at 58.3 last season, which was lower than I thought. It’s not that I don’t like Walker, it’s just I don’t like the situation he is currently in.

29. Isaiah Pacheco (Bye - Week 10) - I really liked what I saw from Pacheco last season. He ran with violence and proved able to carry the load running the ball, something that CEH was never able to do. He found himself in a great situation in Kansas City (obviously), but that also means the man is severely limited when it comes to fantasy. The Chiefs are a pass first offense, and that means Pacheco will always be the backup option. He shined last year on the Chad Henne drive in the playoff game against Jacksonville after ripping off a near 60 yard run. Pacheco was great last year avoiding contact as he ranked 4th in Stuff rate (37.1%), but he also was in the bottom ten in targets (13). He doesn’t catch the ball. He’s a pure runner for the Chiefs. And as long as McKinnon stays there, Pacheco will be an afterthought in the passing game. He can be a viable flex play because he’s a starting running back, but he is definitely not a week to week starter.

30. JK Dobbins (Bye - Week 13) - People continuously love Dobbins because of what he could do. I don’t love Dobbins because of what he hasn’t been able to do - stay on the field. Listen, injuries are a part of the game, I get it. And Dobbins isn’t trying to get hurt. But unfortunately, that is the story of his career so far. He’s another guy that doesn’t really catch the ball out of the backfield. And when you’re the number one running back on a team, and you’re still the secondary option to run the football, that doesn’t bode well for fantasy. You wouldn’t find one Ravens fan that would rather have Dobbins run the ball in open space than Lamar. And for the first time in forever (my Frozen line), the Ravens have what it seems like legitimate receivers on the outside. Odell, Zay, Mark, and Rashod. Not to mention Gus Edwards is the permanent shadow of Dobbins, and the Ravens recently signed Kenyan Drake. Dobbins will play if he’s healthy, but he is a matchup play for you at best.

31. David Montgomery (Bye - Week 9) - People always seem to forget about Montgomery. I also feel like we have been waiting for Monty to really take that next step and become that elite back. It just….never happened. He is what he is now. The Lions brought him in from Chicago to compliment Jahmyrr Gibbs, and Montgomery will do that. But make no mistake, Gibbs is the future in Detroit. I can definitely see a scenario where you’re dropping Montgomery by Week 10 because he’s getting 20% of the carries for Detroit - because Gibbs has been that good. Listen, on the plays where Gibbs is lining up on the outside, which I think is being blown out of proportion a little, Montgomery will be in the backfield. Is he a good running back? Yes. Will he have some good games? Yes. Is his time of being “the guy” over? Also, yes. He’s probably the number one handcuff in the NFL right now in terms of fantasy - so he’s definitely worth a late round pick. But I wouldn’t expect much from him on a week to week basis.

32. Antonio Gibson (Bye - Week 14) - The last of the starting backs in the NFL. Gibson was downright atrocious last year for an offense that was abysmal. My adjectives are getting better. But the Commanders were wonky from the start. With the whole Brian Robinson thing to the Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke musical chairs, it just never worked out. And Gibson is only a year removed from having a really good season. The XFP/G suggests that he is in for the biggest jump among fantasy running backs. It was 13.1, which is really high. But very similar to Rachaad White, I’m not buying it. This offense was putrid last year, and there is an argument to be made they went backwards. We don’t know yet, but its possible. I also hate the fact that Robinson is still there and that Ron Rivera can make a change at a moments notice. It just screams fantasy headache.

Tier VI

33. De’Von Achane (Bye - Week 10) - My sleeper running back for the season. I absolutely loved what I saw from Achane coming out of Texas A&M. The kid is a serious burner and has the skills to do it at the next level. A little small, but that doesn’t matter as much in today’s NFL as it used to. And the good thing here is that the Dolphins don’t have a bonafide stud at the position. Yes, they have Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Myles Gaskin, but none of those guys have taken the job by storm. Mostert can’t stay healthy, and Wilson is ok. But Achane has that second gear that fits in perfectly with what Miami wants to work with - speed. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane. Get used to it.

34. AJ Dillon (Bye - Week 6) - The “other” back in Green Bay has been a mainstay for a couple of years now. Dillon is the goal line back in Green Bay and gets a ton of touchdowns, which is the main part of his fantasy value. His XFP/G last year was actually 10.8, which is quite high considering he is really touchdown dependent. He has better speed than you think, and can actually catch the ball but doesn’t that much because of Aaron Jones. Dillon will have spurts where he is the guy, but Green Bay really does split them pretty evenly. His lack of catching production plummets him though. He is 100% worth a draft pick because of his touchdown rate and his carries inside the red zone. At the very worst, he’s a handcuff, and if by chance Jones gets hurt and needs to miss time, Dillon immediately becomes an RB2.

35. Jeff Wilson (Bye - Week 10) - This is the best veteran back in Miami currently. Down the stretch the Dolphins leaned on Wilson, especially when Tua was missing games. Wilson’s XFP/G last season was 10.4, which suggests a slight aggression for the running back. The room is crowded though, especially with the aforementioned Achane getting some hype. I can definitely see a scenario where Wilson is RB1 going into the season and getting most of the carries. Based off that alone he is worthy of being drafted. But Miami is a pass first offense and with Hill and Waddle, they will do it consistently. Think of the Miami running situation similar to that of Buffalo and Kansas City. The running game is a clear secondary. But with the rookie there now, it limits Wilson even more.

36. Khalil Herbert (Bye - Week 13) - We are at RB36 and just now mentioning the first Bears running back. That should tell you all you need to know about the Bears offensive line situation. The main runner in Chicago is Justin Fields - make no mistake about that. But there are some things about Herbert that I do like. Every time he got an opportunity last season, he seemed to capitalize on it. He ranked 5th in STUFF at 38%, which suggests he’s good at avoiding defenders at the LOS. He doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield though as he only had 11 targets all of last season. That was good for 3rd worst in the NFL. The Bears also drafted Roschon Johnson out of Texas in the 4th round, so now there is someone breathing down Herberts neck. I think the Bears will use the ever popular two RB system, and with Herbert being the second option in the run game, it’s unlikely he will have week to week value. Worth a late round draft pick as he will be playing every week.

37. Kenneth Gainwell (Bye - Week 10) - There really is a lot to like about Gainwell. He’s never going to be a 3 down back in the league, but he provides a spark similar to an Eagles player that was there for a while - Darren Sproles. And Sproles was a very viable fantasy option for a lot of years. The stats back up that Gainwell can be even more explosive for Philly this season. He ranked 1st in the NFL in TD Rate (7.5%), almost a full percent higher than the 2nd place player (Mattison) and was 2nd in the NFL in STUFF rate (34%). He’s not going to break a lot of tackles (2nd worst in YACO) and won’t receive the ball on the goal line, as he finished 4th worst in i5 (15.6%). The Eagles brought in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny this season to replace Miles Sanders. One can argue that Penny is the best pure runner of the three, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy. Gainwell will have to compete with Swift for some of the catches, but he remains a healthy bench option in fantasy with his explosiveness and ability to make plays. The Eagles always do a good job of getting their skill players in space.

38. Tank Bigsby (Bye - Week 9) - The 4th rookie running back on the rankings, Bigsby provides something the Jaguars didn’t have last year - a punisher. Travis Etienne is more of a runner who is good in the zone scheme and outside the numbers while Bigsby can get through the gaps. Coming out of Auburn, Bigsby was able to provide big play ability with an underrated amount of speed. He won’t get as many carries as people are suggesting, but he will have ample opportunity. He is the clear number two back in Jacksonville. Expect him to get some carries in short yardage situations and goal line spots. The Duval county faithful are hoping Bigsby can be the thunder to ETN’s lightning.

39. Cordarelle Patterson (Bye - Week 11) - Both Patterson and Allgeier (who we will speak about) will suffer greatly from the arrival of Bijan Robinson. He is now the closest new toy to a three down back we have in this league. But I believe the arrival of Bijan hurts Allgeier more than it hurts Patterson. The Falcons gadget player is just that - a gadget, and he can still be used in a variety of ways. Patterson ranked 3rd in STUFF last year at a clip of 36.8%, so he was still making people miss at an elite rate. Arthur Smith will make sure that he is being used every week, although it will be more sparingly. Think of Patterson this year the way you think of Taysom Hill, but better. If you are in a league where you get punts on returns, Patterson is more valuable than I have him here at 39; he would be more in the upper 30s. However, where last year he was a weekly starter, it is anything but this year.

40. Brian Robinson (Bye - Week 14) - After a serious injury last season with a gun shot wound to the leg, Brian Robinson’s story lifted everyone up. He came back mere weeks after being shot, and he actually performed quite serviceably. Putting him at 40 really comes down to the fact that it can be the Robinson or Gibson show from week to week. With that unknown factor, it is hard to really put Robinson in a solid place. He is also non-existent in the pass game as he only garnered 12 targets last season. I see the projection of 21 catches and I laugh at that because that means he would have to be targeted about 28-30 times. No shot.

41. Zach Charbonnet - (Bye - Week 5) - The rookie out of UCLA found himself in a precarious spot in Seattle. A lot of people had Charbo as a second round selection, but people were very surprised when they saw it was the Seahawks who required his services. The rookie will get an opportunity to perform, but if Kenneth Walker gets off to a good start, its hard to imagine a scenario with Charbonnet gets some playing time. However, the Seahawks drafted him for a reason. During our draft season, I mentioned that he was the only other three down back in the draft outside of Robinson, and he has some undervalued speed. Maybe the Seahawks have bigger plans for him than we assume.

42. Jerick McKinnon (Bye - Week 10) - This is my biggest regression candidate of the 2023 season. McKinnon lived a CHARMED life last year with the amount of touchdowns he scored. I am telling you there is no way that he repeats that again this year. The Chiefs have added the following: Rashee Rice, 2nd round WR out of SMU. They also are getting a full season of Kadarius Toney and a more seasoned Skyy Moore this season. The options on players for Mahomes will be more than it was last year, and I think McKinnon may get left out in the dust. Pacheco has a hold on the running game with the Chiefs also not yet giving up on former first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire (although they should). McKinnon’s value sits alone in the passing game. And even with all the touchdowns he score last year, he still finished 5th worst in TD Rate (1.4%) and 4th worst in STUFF rate (51.4%). I just don’t see it this year.

43. Devin Singletary (Bye - Week 7) - Coming off a mildly successful season, Singletary bolted from Buffalo and joined Houston to pair up with Damien Pierce. He never really amounted to the running back some people thought he could be in Buffalo, but they may have had to do with the scheme the Bills ran with Brian Daboll. In Houston though, his role is clear. He is the backup to Pierce. He will get opportunities during the game (8-10 carries per game), but with the lack of production he provides in the pass game, its hard to see him make a real impact over the course of the season. Especially going from All-Pro Josh Allen to rookie CJ Stroud.

44. Michael Carter (Bye - Week 7) - Carter has always been an interesting figure. A ton of people thought he would take the handle on the job in NY as he came out of school the same year as college teammate Javonte Williams. While Williams established himself in Denver, it never came that easy for Carter. And then with the emergence of Breece Hall last year, that left Carter in the background. Carter will get run early in the season as they Jets will ease Hall back from his ACL injury, but once Hall is a full go, don’t expect Carter to be on the field that much. He offers little in the passing game, and even though he ranked 5th in YACO last season (71.9%), if the Jets sign one of Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott, Carter will be left off my rankings altogether, as he may even be a cut candidate.

Tier VII

45. Damien Harris (Bye - Week 13) - The job in Buffalo should belong to James Cook. But I can see a scenario where Damien Harris gets some carries because he’s Damien Harris. He was severely outplayed by Stevenson last year in New England which spelled his departure. But he goes from a team that loved to run the football to a team that…well, doesn’t. And James Cook offers more in the pass game. I would be really surprised if Harris is a viable fantasy option this season.

46. Roschon Johnson (Bye - Week 13) - Another sneaky rookie that can make an impact this season. Johnson didn’t get the headlines in college because he played behind Bijan Robinson, but Johnson was good in his own right. He goes to a really good situation in Chicago where he can make an impact right away. We have seen a lot of scenarios in the past where Day 3 running backs may a play for the starting running back gig. In redrafts, you can get Johnson late late, but in keepers/dynasty, I would absolutely keep an eye on him in the mid rounds.

47. Tyler Allgeier (Bye - Week 11) - Allgeier had a really nice season last year. And then the Falcons went ahead and took Bijan 8th overall. That essentially spelled the end for Allgeier as the primary runner for Atlanta. He will be a nice complimentary back for the Falcons, but with the versatility of Cordarelle Patterson and the allure of Bijan Robinson, that doesn’t leave much room for Allgeier.

48. Deuce Vaughn (Bye - Week 7) - This guy is going to surprise. He is already turning heads at camp in Dallas, and he has the opportunity to be a real change of pace back for the Cowboys. He is really, really small. Almost too small. But he is dynamic. Pollard is the obvious starter in the lone star state, but Vaughn has an opportunity to cement himself as the RB2 there. And we know in today’s NFL, there is a place for RB2’s who have skill.

49. Rashaad Penny (Bye - Week 10) - How far Rashaad Penny has fallen. Once a promising back for the Seattle Seahawks, injuries derailed his career there. He is trying to revive it in Philadelphia. While that may be the actual best place to do it, he has to compete with two guys who are both younger and more athletic. Penny will be the guy for the short yardage opportunities and may even get some carries in the red zone, but he has absolutely zero value in the passing game and won’t be on the field in normal down and distances. He is also one more injury from finding himself on the street.

50. Elijah Mitchell (Bye - 9) - I would have Mitchell way higher if he was able to stay healthy. He is a good runner, and he can make people miss, but its gonna be hard to see him get consistent playing time with CMC now in SF for a full season. CMC does have a robust injury history though, so if he does get hurt, Mitchell’s stock goes way, way up.

51. Samaje Perine (Bye - Week 9) - People forget how useful Perine was last year in Cincinnati. He scored some big touchdowns for those boys. He is now in Denver with Sean Payton, Russell Wilson and the crew and he has the same exact role he had last year. Last season Perine came in at RB35, so I dipped him some because the offense in Cincinnati is better than it is in Denver. And if Williams is as healthy as they say he is, he may even get less opportunities than he did in Cincy.

52. Tyjae Spears (Bye - Week 7) - I loved Spears coming out of Tulane. His speed is insane and he’s got really good hands. He is the perfect compliment to Derrick Henry. He had a pre-existing injury before coming into the NFL and that is something to watch, but if Spears gets in open space, good luck. With the amount of time Henry was on the field last year (66.8%) and the him receiving the most rushing attempts in the NFL (349), it seems like Spears only value will be in the passing game. With a sub-par passing attack, its hard to see a real impact that he can make, at least for this year.

53. Gus Edwards (Bye - 13) - The Staten Island native has been a staple in Baltimore for some time now, and every time we think he’s going to be the “guy” he ends up getting hurt. He is a clear depth piece with the Ravens, and while he reps SI really well, he’s a streamer at best in fantasy.

54. Raheem Mostert (Bye - Week 10) - With the arrival of Jeff Wilson last season and the drafting of De’Von Achane this year, I think Mostert gets buried on the depth chart. Both guys just mentioned offer more than he does, and neither guy has a large injury history that Mostert has. It’s unfortunate, because that season in San Francisco was really something to behold. But he got injured that year too. I think Mostert is a surprise cut candidate if Achane really grabs a hold of the role.

55. Evan Hull (Bye - Week 11) - I am ending the RB list with 3 rookies. Hull is in Indianapolis where the injury to Zach Moss has opened the door for him to walk through as the RB2. If Jonathan Taylor actually holds out, then Hull becomes the surprise RB1 there. Having a rookie coach, rookie QB and rookie RB in Week 1 is not an ideal situation.

56. Sean Tucker (Bye - Week 5) - I wanted to throw the Syracuse rookie in here because when I watched his tape, I thought there was something there. Earlier, I spoke about my skepticism on Rachaad White. If White struggles, Tucker can take charge of the position there. I like him enough where he won’t be drafted, but you can keep an eye on him throughout the year and then pounce when no one is looking. You may be surprised at how much he plays during the year.

57. Kendre Miller (Bye - Week 11) -  The 11th(!!) and final rookie on our fantasy rankings, Miller has talent. Its going to be hard for him to get on the field though between Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and possibly Kareem Hunt. If Hunt doesn’t come to the big easy, then Miller has some stash value. Miller can be drafted in dynasty leagues towards the end, as I think this may be the last couple of seasons that Kamara is in New Orleans.

Fantasy Football SZN - Quarterbacks

We have begun the ascent. With the Hall of Fame taking place today, we now will have a football game every week until the middle of February. Smell those flowers. Take your time to take in the surroundings. Take that extra second in whatever you’re doing before you go on to the next task. Life is good. Especially when you realize that Fantasy Football season is in full swing. This is the perfect time of year to check out all the lists of players, who the sleepers are going to be, who the busts are going to be, and who this years Jalen Hurts is.

We pride ourselves on our Fantasy knowledge. Between the three voices at PSP, we accumulate 10 Fantasy titles amongst various leagues as well as having a knack for nailing some deeper sleepers year in and year out; thank you Isaiah Pacheco and Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2022. While people argue about who the Top RBs are and who the belongs in Tier 2 or 3 of the WR group, we often forget that the QB position is maybe the most important in Fantasy. Personally, I belong in leagues where the QBs can get upwards of 40-50 points per game, while in another league 25 points for a QB is a lot. While those metrics are a see-saw, one thing cannot be overstated - you want a stud at the position. Flip flopping quarterbacks based off of weekly matchups almost never works, and betting on a guy with potential when he is unproven isn’t a wise strategy unless you already have someone who is the veteran who can be expendable.

What do I mean by that? Let’s take in 2023 for a second. We all know that dual threat Quarterbacks are king in Fantasy Football. The darling of the off-season so far is Justin Fields. Now, Fields was an excellent Fantasy QB last year (7th among all QBs). However, he was so hit and miss cause of his passing inaccuracies that it was difficult to wonder which weeks would be good and which would be bad. In all three of my leagues last year, the champion in each one had Patrick Mahomes as their QB. That’s not a coincidence. If you plan on drafting Fields in 2023 hoping for him to jump into the Top 5; hell, even Top 3 - I would be keen to draft another one who has proven he can do it on a week in-week out basis in the event Fields can’t figure out the passing game.

Do we have Tiers for our QBs? Of course we do. But we are gonna get down and dirty with out tiers this year. Each QB ranked (Top 35), we will provide some numbers from last year and then give our analysis on what we expect from them going forward. Most of the advanced statistics come from Fantasypoints.com, which is a fantastic spot to get all your fantasy information! Let’s get started with the juggernauts…

Tier I - The Monstars

1. Patrick Mahomes (Bye - Week 10) - Mahomes was the best overall and fantasy QB last season accumulating 429.4 Fantasy Points while collecting another Lombardi Trophy. No injury designation going into the season. Mahomes was the best fantasy QB at home AND on the road this past season as well as being the top QB in the month of November. He ranked 9th as a “cold weather QB” so there was no issue there. He only threw deep on 9.3% of his throws, which was well below the usual (no Tyreek Hill), but he was just as dynamic. He averaged 25.3 FPP last year, which was good for 3rd, but he threw 41 touchdown passes, which catapulted him to the top of the charts. He only lost Juju Smith-Schuster, but added rookie Rashee Rice and has another year of Skyy Moore, so Mahomes is a comfortable QB1.

2. Jalen Hurts (Bye - Week 10) - Hurts was the near MVP last season before Mahomes went nuclear. Hurts was fantastic both at home and on the road, as well as being the 4th best “cold weather QB”, so there is no issue there. Hurts threw the ball down the field more, having a 12% Deep Throw % with an adjusted completion % of 77.8. He continued to throw to his first read a ton (73.5%) so AJ Brown should benefit in Year 2. A couple of areas where Hurts can improve is Pressure Rate, which was only .13%, and his lack of playing well in the rain. The reason Hurts is above Allen is because he averaged .71 FP per drop back last year, which was good for #1 among all QBs. If Hurts runs more this year, which he should, then that number may very well go up.

3. Josh Allen (Bye - Week 13) - Josh Allen played hurt last year. And still finished as the 2nd best fantasy QB of 2022. Allen threw 35 touchdown passes last year had the same production whether he was at home or on the road. His strongest month was October, as he was the highest ranked fantasy QB during that time. He was by far the best “cold weather” QB, almost doubling the point total of the second place guy on that list, Justin Fields. There is a lot to be said that Allen may be the best fantasy QB down the stretch and during playoff time. He was also the best QB against his division last year. For the math-letes, that’s six fantasy games of above average play! A couple of nuggets though - Allen threw 14 INTs last year. Over the past two years, he has thrown 29(!!!) INTs, so that is starting to become a trend of sorts. In his five years in the NFL, he has only not thrown double digit INTs once (2019). A lot of Allen’s point came from avoiding sacks (41 times) and scrambling yards (51 scrambles for 506 yards). That also got him hurt last year… His ACC% was down last year (49.9%), his off target throws reached 16.6%, and he played HERO ball a ton (7.6%). He started to check it down more than in years past (8.8%) and with James Cook now commanding starting duties, expect that number to go up, and the scramble opportunities to go down. He is still a fantasy machine; he will just protect himself more this year.

Tier II - Carry Me Lord

4. Lamar Jackson (Bye - Week 13) - The biggest thing with Jackson is his health. Last year was the second year in a row he had a season ending injury and cost his team a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl. He did get a new contract in the offseason, so hopefully the injury bug is behind him. If you pro-rate Lamar’s stats from 2022 over 17 games, he comes in as the 5th best fantasy QB last season. Now take into account he wasn’t having a great year last year. In 12 games, he had a 62.3% completion rate while only throwing for 186.8 YPG and throwing 17 touchdown passes. He threw the ball deep 14.1% of the time, but now with Odell Beckham at his disposal along with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and newcomer Zay Flowers, expect that number to go down, but the YAC % to go up (46.5%). The Ravens receivers didn’t do him any favors either, with a drop % of 6.1. He did have a positive PrROE (Pressure Rate over Expectation) which other big names QBs were not as good last year (Rodgers, Lawrence, Brady, Goff, etc.). Lamar averaged .65 FP per drop back, which was good for third behind Hurts and Fields (see the trend?). If Lamar can stay healthy, he can easily be the highest scoring QB this year.

5. Joe Burrow (Bye - Week 7) - For the third year in a row, Burrow has a training camp injury. This year its a strained calf, but thankfully there is no real threat to have him miss regular season games. This is good, because Burrow may be the most clutch QB in the entire league. Burrow may have the best skill players in the entire NFL, with the likes of Mixon, Chase, Higgins and Boyd. Getting into 2022 Burrow, he was actually more effective on the road than he was at home. He ranked as the 3rd best fantasy QB on the road while he ranked 8th at home. He also ranked within the top 10 in cold weather games (0-40 degrees). Burrow had the second highest completion percentage last year, behind Geno Smith, and averaged the second most YPG behind Mahomes. Like Mahomes, Burrow doesn’t throw the ball deep a ton. He only averaged an 8.7% Deep Thrown percentage with an adjusted completion % of 78.6. Burrow loves his first read, as he goes there 66% of the time (Chase lovers unite). The one thing Burrow did a lot of last year, and which I think hinders him in terms of fantasy value, is he checks down a bunch. Last year he did it 11.7% of the time, which was good for 1st in the NFL. Burrow is still a Top 5 fantasy QB option, solely on the fact that he throws an incredible ball and he has elite weapons.

6. Trevor Lawrence (Bye - Week 9) - The second half of the year was no fluke. Lawrence was a Top 5 QB from November on last year, and he really took his game up a notch on the road. He was a Top 5 fantasy QB on the road, putting himself in the conversation with the names mentioned above him. Contrary to what many believe, Lawrence actually performs well in the rain. He ranked as the second highest fantasy QB when the water poured in, sandwiching himself between Lamar and Josh Allen. Lawrence saw an increase in his Deep Throw % (11.6) and the YAC went up as well (51.7%). Thank you Doug Pederson. All you Calvin Ridley lovers - get ready for this. Trevor threw to his first read 75% of the time. Hopefully the addition of Ridley will lower the Jaguars drop rate of 6%, which accounted for 256 yards last season. Lawrence needs to do better against pressure (-1.65% PrROE), but overall, the sky is the limit for the prince that was promised.

Tier III - You’re Already Good, You CAN be Great!

7. Justin Fields (Bye - Week 13) - The conundrum that is Justin Fields. Lets start with the good - Fields finished 7th last year in Fantasy points for QBs, which is fantastic. He was insanely poised against pressure, having the best PrROE rate, a 14.45% clip!!!! The problem (or maybe not?) is that most of those points came from running the football. In the passing department, Fields only managed a 60.4% completion rate last season with a 17:11 TD to INT ratio. Fields was the worst fantasy QB in the month of September, but really turned it on afterwards. Fields was excellent in the cold weather, as he better be if he plays in Chicago. But he really struggled in the rain as he ranked the 3rd worst fantasy QB when it rains. Fields got sacked 55 times last year, which led to 66 scramble opportunities - netting about 10 YPC. If the offensive line improves, the Bears will have to have more designed runs for Fields. His ACC% was right in line with players like Mariota and Mac Jones, which isn’t great company, but the addition of DJ Moore should hopefully help that. Bottom line, Fields needs to become more accurate and get better in the pocket. Of the 55 sacks he took last year, 17 of them were on him. Only Russell Wilson came close with 16. If he can clean both of this things up, he may be in for a special year.

8. Jared Goff (Bye - Week 9) - Fun Jared Goff is back, baby. He was the orchestrator of maybe the most fun offense in the entire NFL last year. With the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and the great offensive line, the Lions put up POINTS. If you’re gonna draft Goff though, I would make sure you have a suitable backup. While Goff ranked 3rd in FP at home, he was almost as poor on the road, ranking as the 10th worst fantasy QB on the road. Jared loves that dome. Goff threw for 4400 yards with 29 TD passes last season. He only threw the deep ball 9.4% of the time, which was relevant because St. Brown was more of an over the middle guy. At times, Goff did have some accuracy issues - and my betting self would argue those came on the road. With a new toy in Jahmyrr Gibbs coming into the fold this year, that should unlock some more YAC for the Lions offense. They replaced Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift with Gibbs and Montgomery. As long as St. Brown stays health and Ben Johnson remains the OC, Goff is a fantasy starter in most situations.

9. Justin Herbert (Bye - Week 5) - The new richest QB in the NFL resides in California. Justin Herbert may have the prettiest ball in the entire NFL. Herbert has a wonderful cast of characters too - Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now Quentin Johnston - to throw the ball too. Herbert was a fringe fantasy QB starter last year, but he excelled on the road, ranking 6th amongst all QBs in FP away from home. I think some of the issues last year lied with Herbert not doing what he naturally does well; throwing the ball down the field. Last year, Herbert only threw it down the field 8.9% of the time. He also shied away from his 1st read (Keenan Allen) by only going there 57% of the time. His check down % is about 11.6% (Ekeler SZN) but we have to take into account that Joe Lomardi is out, and Kellen Moore is in. Put some context here. Prescott threw the ball down the field 1% more, but had almost a 3% dip in check downs. That could mean less opportunities for Ekeler, but getting back to the old JH. Dak also threw to his first read 68% of the time - an 11% hike from Lombardi. I think with the change at OC, Herbert gets back to an every week fantasy starter.

10. Aaron Rodgers (Bye - Week 7) - Aaron is in a New York State of mind. After an eternity in Green Bay, Rodgers starts his second win in East Rutherford. He reunited with Nate Hackett, Allan Lazard and Randall Cobb. He has a younger version of Davante Adams with Garrett Wilson and a really good young RB in Breece Hall. In a really down year for the QB, Rodgers still managed to be 10th in FP at home. He ranked 3rd in FP in “cold weather games”, so the change from GB to NY shouldn’t matter at all. Rodgers still threw the ball down the field a ton last season - 14.9%, and that should remain the same, maybe even increase with a legitimate number one receiver back in the fold. Wilson should shine with a 67.2% 1st read percentage. Rodgers also won’t have to play as much hero ball as he did last year (6.5% clip). The big question remains with the Jets offensive line. It is still subpar.  Rodgers was absolutely abysmal when he faced pressure last year (a -4.97% PrROE clip). Rodgers will get his points and will be a fantasy starter, but the line will depend how good he actually can be.

11. DeShaun Watson (Bye - Week 5) - There really isn’t a lot to go off for DeShaun Watson in 2022. He sat out all of 2021 with a pending investigation and then was suspended in 2022 for the first 12 games. When he did come back in 2022, he was not good. It looked like…he hadn’t played in almost two years. Just to get a feel of how bad Watson was last year? Over a pro-rated 17 games, Watson was the 2nd worst QB at home, and the 9th worst QB on the road. The move from Houston to Cleveland didn’t affect him weather wise though, as his best performance of the season was in a cold weather game. So why am I so high on Watson?  Because the last time he played a full season and had a full off-season, he was a stud. And now he has a top running back in Nick Chubb, and a seemingly underrated receiver in Amari Cooper. I think Cooper is a bonafide stud this year, and Watson will return to form. The Browns offensive line is no joke, and when Watson has had time to throw, he has made defenses pay.

12. Tua Tagovailoa (Bye - Week 10) - The biggest question with Tua is going to be health. Plain and simple. If he can find a way to play all 17 games, not only will the Dolphins be a force, but the Hawaiian native may also be a Top fantasy QB as well. Before getting hurt last year, the Dolphins and Tua were tearing it up offensively. No one was able to stop Tyreek and Waddle, and now they have added some skill players to that running back room. Last year Tua was wildly more successful on the road than he was at home, ranking as the 9th best QB on the road and 10th worst QB at home. His 8.87 YPA last year wash higher than guys such as Mahomes, Hurts and Herbert, and he still threw 25 TDs in only 13 games. He’s not much of a runner, which dips his fantasy value a bit. The Dolphins didn’t produce a lot of YAC last year (38.1%), and that probably has to do with Tua’s lack of arm strength. He is a more of a middle of the field guy, and with those receivers - why not? When Tua was healthy this year, he was a must start in fantasy, and this year will be the same thing.

Tier IV - Who are you, Really?

13. Daniel Jones (Bye - Week 13) - If you’re someone who looks to play a two QB system in fantasy, Danny Dimes may be one of your guys. Jones seemed to figure it out last year with HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka as he rushed for a career high in yards and a career low in turnovers. All that success meant a playoff appearance and even a road playoff victory. So why isn’t Jones a sure fire fantasy starter? Because if last year was the best Jones had to offer, then 15 passing touchdowns is not fantasy starter worthy. We talked about Jared Goff earlier. With Goff’s splits last year between home/road games, it may be a good idea to pair him with Jones and go that route. Jones was excellent at home last year, ranking as the 5th best fantasy QB when playing at home. His kryptonite was bad weather, as seems to be the trend with many dual threat QBs. He ranked as the 2nd worst fantasy QB when the weather got tough. Jones finished at QB9 last year in fantasy. His scramble numbers were wild, as he scrambled 54 times for 404 yards and 2 scores. Just as we talked about before with Allen, I don’t think the Giants brass is going to want Jones to run as much when they just invested so much money into him. Jones does not throw the ball deep (4.9%), but that may be because of a lack of weapons last year. Enter Darren Waller and rookie Jalin Hyatt, and maybe Jones will throw the ball down the field more. His biggest thing going for him last year in the passing department was his extreme accuracy. He had an 80.1% ADJ CMP percentage, which was tops in the NFL among all qualified QBs. That’s a hell of a stat. He was also really good under pressure, as his 6.22% PrROE number indicates. Jones is a good fantasy option. Not great, but good. He will pull in numbers some weeks. But the lack of touchdowns he produces may drive some fantasy owners mad during some weeks.

14. Kirk Cousins (Bye - Week 13) - Consistent Kirk. The darling of the show “Quarterback” on Netflix has Cousins in the spotlight this off-season for his toughness and love for his family. With the addition of HC Kevin O’Connell last year, Minnesota had their best regular season in some time, but an untimely early postseason exit to the Giants had people once again if Kirk was the guy. Last season, Kirk finished as QB8 in fantasy, but statistically had his worst season in a while. While he completed nearly 66% of his passes, he failed to surpass 30 TD passes for the first time since 2019, and he doubled his interception total last year from 7 in ’21 to 14 in ’22. He did throw for 300 yards more than he did the previous year, so that helped even out the extra turnovers. Cousins was excellent at home last year as he ranked as the 6th best fantasy QB inside the dome. He throws to his first read nearly 70% of the time, so Jefferson should eat again, but no Dalvin Cook this year may have defenses leaning back more than in years past. I expect a slight regression from Cousins, but his rank of 14 has more to do with the elevation of players like Tua, Watson and Rodgers than it does with Cousins himself.

15. Geno Smith (Bye - Week 5) - There is no denying how good Geno Smith was last year. Like at all. A starter for the first time since his NYJ days, Smith took the Seahawks from a team that was supposed to be a Top 5 draftee to a wild card appearance. Geno came in as QB5 in fantasy last season. QB5!!!! He finished inside the Top 10 in both games at home and on the road, and was a Top 5 fantasy QB in the rain as well. He completed 69.8% of his passes and threw 30 TD passes. It was truly a remarkable year. So why is Geno not a sure fire fantasy option this year? A couple of reasons. One, I need to see him do it again. I am a non-believer. And with the addition of Jaxson Smith-Njiba, he very well make me a believer. But more importantly, some numbers last year suggest Smith was more lucky than good. Geno had a high OFF% (Off Target Throw Percentage) of 15.2%, had a high HERO rate of 6.3%, and had a TWT% (Turnover worthy throws) of 4.5%. The only qualified QBs that had a higher TO rate last year were Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, and Matthew Stafford. Let that sink in for a minute. Do not get me wrong, Geno was great last year, and he skill players (especially the WR trio) will make a valuable play at times this year, but I expect him to come down to earth a bit in 23-24.

16. Dak Prescott (Bye - Week 7) - I think the shine is starting to wear off on the Dallas QB. 2022 was a nightmare for him between injuries and a ton of turnovers. In 12 games last year, Dak threw for 2,860 yards and 23 TD passes, but a stain of 15 INTs, a league high. His fantasy season was saved by being by being the highest scoring fantasy QB in the month of December as he went on a nice little run to position the Cowboys for the playoffs. Prescott didn’t take a lot of shots last year, only throwing 39 deep balls all year long. However, much like the guy mentioned above him, there were some red flags. With an OFF% of 16.5 and a TWT% of 4.1, there is actually an argument to be made that Dak could have thrown more INTs last year. There will absolutely be weeks where Prescott gets you 40-50 points because he threw for 400 yards and 4 scores, but those weeks are few and far between now as the emergence of Tony Pollard and the decreasing play of the offensive line suggest the Cowboys may now be a defense first team.

17. Derek Carr (Bye - Week 11) - A change of scenery was needed last year for Derek Carr. The clock finally struck midnight on his tenure with the Raiders, and now has a new home in New Orleans with the Saints. Carr was statistically one of the worst starting QBs last season, as he completed 60.8% of his passes and threw for 24 TDs along with 14 INTs. He was benched for the 3 weeks as Jarrett Stidham took over to finish the year. Carr has been nothing but class during his time in OAK/LV, but now with a new home, I do expect a little bit of a rejuvenated Carr. Out of everyone in this tier, I think Carr has the most upside. Let’s start with the skill players. A three headed trio of Alvin Kamara (Suspended the first 3 weeks), Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller along with budding WR Chris Olave and star WR Michael Thomas, Carr should have no shortage of weapons to throw the ball to. One may argue that Carr had Davante Adams last year and Josh Jacobs. But I think that team was so mentally cooked, that it took a toll on him. Carr likes to throw the ball deep (13.7%) and the Saints have a couple of burners that can go for a couple of big plays. He needs to improve on his accuracy though. His 72.1 ADJ COM % and his 73.9% CATCH rate were both towards the bottom of the league. He does check down a lot (10.2%) so expect Kamara and Miller to get some good YAC opportunities this year. If Carr can improve the accuracy, he may be worthy of stash this year - you may hit gold.

18. Russell Wilson (Bye - Week 9) - There are no words in my vocabulary to describe how bad Russell Wilson was last year. A season of epic disaster as a team with Super Bowl aspirations finished under .500 and pretty much gave up with a month to play. It led to the firing of Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the OC for the Jets, and a major shakeup in the front office. Wilson is under a huge magnifying glass this season, because if he performs the way he did last year - he won’t be on a team in 2024. Wilson struggled everywhere last year; At home? 9th worst fantasy QB. Completion %? 60.5. A 16:11 TD to INT ratio. He was sacked 55 times. I can go on and on and on. So how is he in the Top 20 of fantasy QB options. Two words. Sean Payton. If anyone can revive this man’s career, it is Payton. For those of you that don’t remember, Payton and Drew Brees were attached at the hip until Drew retired a couple of years ago. The pair won a Super Bowl together and came close a few other times. His job is simple - fix Russ and this offense. The team has weapons! Javonte Williams (coming off an ACL), Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy. Tim Patrick is already lost for the year and KJ Hamler is taking time away from the team for a medical condition, so maybe someone else emerges, but Denver could perform with what they have. It will be on Payton to figure out what the issue was last year. But its buyer beware for Russ this year. Has anyone tried the Dangerwich?

Tier V - The Unknowns

19. Anthony Richardson (Bye - Week 11) - Admittedly, this one was the toughest one to spot. Richardson has all the tools to be a star in the making. He reminds me a lot of Justin Fields. Big bodies, strong arm, great mobility….accuracy issues. MAJOR accuracy issues. Josh Allen had accuracy issues coming into the NFL, but he figured it out, so maybe AR will too. A couple of things about this rookie; we don’t know if he is going to start yet. With the Jonathan Taylor situation taking over in Indy, it would probably be smart to let Gardner Minshew suffer than let Richardson shoulder that load to start the year. It’s a tough situation to put a raw, rookie QB in without their top running back and a rookie head coach. Second, we don’t know where he is at. It was a wide known fact that Richardson was a raw prospect coming out of school, but its just a matter of when he can put it together - if he can put it together. In a dynasty league, he is 1000% worth a top pick as your patience very well may pay off. But in a redraft? He is no way, shape or form a starting fantasy option. He may have weeks where he gets 25 points because of his legs and you will be tempted to start him. Don’t. He will struggle. This isn’t Patrick Mahomes who sat a year and then took the league by storm. Andrew Luck struggled a little his rookie year. Trevor Lawrence struggled mightily his rookie campaign. He’s worth a late round selection for sure. This ranking is more for the keeper and dynasty leagues.

20. Matthew Stafford (Bye - Week 10) - What a difference a year makes. At the beginning of last season, Matthew Stafford was a Super Bowl champion and a player that everyone wanted on their fantasy team. This season, no one wants to go near him. After a dream season, the injury bug came back to Stafford and some thought he may not even come back. And before the injury, he was dreadful. In 9 games, he threw for 2,087 yards with 10 TDs and 8 Ints. He was sacked 29 times in 9 guys. That’s a hair over 3 times a game. He ranked inside the Bottom 10 as a fantasy QB option both at home and on the road. He had a negative CPOE (Completion Percentage over Expectation), 19.5% OFF, and a 4.6% TWT. Putting him at 20 is based off his talent and the fact that Cooper Kupp still remains there. He is still a better option than guys like Tannehill, Pickett, Ridder, Jones, Howell, etc. If he can come back to life, then you have a solid backup - but make no mistake, this team is not the team from two years ago.

21. Kyler Murray (Bye - Week 14) - I want to acknowledge that this ranking is a mix of his injury and the fact that this team is going to be poor. These are not the Arizona Cardinals that started off, what, 8-0 in 2021? Murray has had a couple of injuries now, and the suggestion is that he won’t be back until the middle of the season. This team’s top threats are James Conner, Hollywood Brown and Zach Ertz, who ALL were injured at one or another last year. Before Murray’s season ending injury, he was having an OK year. He had thrown for nearly 2400 yards and 14 TDs. He still used his legs a lot though. If you pro-rate his stats over a full season, he would have finished as QB4 in fantasy. That’s quite shocking when you think about where he is being drafted now. He was more accurate than in year’s past as his ADJ COM % of 78.2 suggests and his 54.9% ACC. His 2.36 TTT (Time to Throw) was one of the tops in the leagues, and avoiding sacks will be huge for him. The biggest question mark for Murray will be what can he do with his legs as that’s such a big part of his fantasy game. If he can’t do what he normally does, he’s a bench warming fantasy QB at best, a streamer at worst. If he can run - well, when he comes back, even though the team is bad - he’s probably a plug and play.

22. Kenny Pickett (Bye - Week 6) - This is a projection ranking. Pickett played better down the stretch than the numbers suggest, but still, the numbers were not good overall. He didn’t start the year, but the poor play of Mitchell Trubisky forced Mike Tomlin’s hand before the season was absolutely lost. The Steelers finished above .500 again, partly due to Pickett playing better in December. He was not a good fantasy option though. He ranked in the Bottom 10 in both QB ranks both at home and on the road, and threw more INTs (9) than TDs (7) last season. He did go down the field a bit last year (11.6%) so the big play opportunity is there. And the Steelers have a better skill group than people give them credit for. Najee Harris should have a better year (I’m convinced he was hurt all year last year), Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Friermuth. That’s a pretty good cast of characters. Dare I say it kinda all lies on Pickett’s shoulders? He needs to improve his accuracy a bit, as his OFF% was 15.9 during his rookie campaign. Pickett is an intriguing QB option in real life, however, in fantasy he’s a clear back up for now. Unless he explodes.

23. Jordan Love (Bye - Week 6) - The Curious Case of Jordan Love. No, he’s not aging backwards, but curious in the sense where we genuinely have no idea what we are going to get. This is Jordan Love’s 3rd NFL season, and he has started one game. One. And it was in Arrowhead Stadium in a 13-7 loss. He was “meh”. Did you forget he was a 1st round pick? I sure didn’t. There is definitely pressure on this kid to do well. You’re following up Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. But this team is very young. The skill group is super interesting. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave. I do like the idea of these guys growing together. But it’s really hard to have an idea of what’s going to happen. I put him in with the group of the rookies really. The reason I have him 23rd is because he at least was able to practice with these guys last year, and he knows their tendencies. That has to count for something…right?

24. Bryce Young (Bye - Week 7) - The number one overall pick. The last QB drafted number one overall had a lot of hype in rookie season and faceplanted, so I think the expectations have been tempered a little bit for Young. Another very interesting group for the young gun, and with the hire of Frank Reich, there is a lot to like here. A couple of savvy veteran receivers in Adam. Thielen and DJ Chark. Miles Sanders as the running back. Bryce is surrounded with talent. It might be middle of the road talent, but talent none the less. Out of all the rookie QBs, I do like Young’s group the best (if Jonathan Taylor was practicing, I would have said Richardson) and I think he has the best chance to succeed in 2024. He was the most consistent Quarterback of the rookies coming out this year, and he should be the most competitive one as the division he is in is really up for grabs. Accuracy is the name of his game, and he has a beautiful deep ball, so maybe DJ Chark can repeat what he did in Jacksonville a few years back.

Tier VI - I Love to Stream

25. Ryan Tannehill (Bye - Week 7) - The signing of DeAndre Hopkins helps his value, but since his renaissance year, his play has dipped consistently. The drafting of Will Levis spells the end at the first sign of poor play.

26. Jimmy Garoppolo (Bye - Week 13) - Before getting hurt last year, Jimmy G was having a good fantasy year. He would have finished as QB12 if he played a full year. The problem currently is that outside of Davante Adams, this team is full of injury prone players and a disgruntled running back. Pass.

27. CJ Stroud (Bye - Week 7) - Probably the most accurate rookie QB of the bunch, but Ohio State QBs tend to struggle in their first year or two, and the receiving core is not really great. Metchie is a rookie, and his best option is Dalton Schultz. Worth a late pick in keeper leagues.

28. Brock Purdy (Bye - Week 9) - Looking back, it was surprising how bad Purdy would have ranked over a pro-rated 17 games. He would have finished as the 2nd worst fantasy QB on the road and the 8th worst at home. He has an array of weapons, but Shanahan uses them so differently. And with Lance/Darnold breathing down his neck, if he has a couple of bad weeks whose to say they won’t call someone else’s number?

29. Desmond Ridder (Bye - Week 11) - The final four games were a mixed bag for Ridder, but numbers wise he was actually terrible. He ranked as the worst fantasy QB both at home and on the road over 17 games. The addition of Bijan Robinson should help, but the pass catchers remind me of the situation in Denver - a lot of potential, but not a lot of production - yet.

Tier VII - Let Me Vomit in my Mouth

30. Mac Jones (Bye - Week 11) - Their best offensive weapon is their running back and his own head coach doesn’t trust him. Why should you?

31. Sam Howell (Bye - Week 14) - Had some hype in college but fell during the draft process. He’s getting an opportunity this year, but the offense was anemic last year and with virtually no change in it this year, I don’t see a significant jump. If the Commanders are struggling again, whose to say Scary Terry won’t be on the block?

32. Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask (Bye - Week 5) - I put these dudes together because no matter who starts it will yield the same result. As long as Todd Bowles is the head coach this team is going nowhere fast.

33. Will Levis (Bye - Week 7) - Not expected to start this season, but if Tannehill struggles, his number may get called. This seems like a Ridder situation from last year.

33. Gardner Minshew (Bye - Week 11) - The only reason you’re drafting this guy is cause of the stache.

34. Davis Mills (Bye - Week 7) - Was passable last year, but with Stroud in a QB battle, he will win out eventually.

35. Trey Lance (Bye - Week 9) - Will this guy ever get an opportunity? They spent the third overall pick on him!