Fantasy Football SZN - Wide Receivers

For as long as I can remember, when you thought of Fantasy Football, you thought of Running Backs. But as is the case in the NFL, we are now a full on passing league. And the Wide Receivers have overtaken the Running Backs as the most important position in FF. Getting a top flight receiver is like winning the lottery. You don’t get the first pick anymore and immediately think running back. Sure, you think Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. But you also think Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams. Receivers put up points in bunches and you can take a WR50 who can break out for a 20+ point week.

Below you will have a tiered Wide Receiver ranking of 80 players. Eighty. We go from the mother crystals to the diamonds in the rough to the jewels who aren’t worth a damn anymore at the store. Everyone has a place in the receivers. In a 12 team league, upwards of 60-70 receivers are being drafted. That’s each team having 5 receivers at minimum. We can’t underestimate how important it is to nail this position when you are drafting. So obviously, you should follow our rankings to the letter of the law. Away we go…

As always, we retrieve our advanced metric data from fantasypoints.com - a great source for fantasy football information.

Tier I

1. Justin Jefferson (Bye - Week 13) - Right now, the best player in fantasy football. If I was ranking everyone on a scale, Jefferson is number one. He’s not only the best receiver in the NFL, but he has the numbers to back it up. He was the only receiver in the league to have an XFP/G of 20 last year. He was the top performer for WR in October and December. He’s 6th in RTE (Routes run per Dropback) at 89.2%. He was number one in targets in 2022 with 179. What more do you want? And he has glue for hands. If you have the first overall pick in a re-draft league and you don’t draft Jefferson, you’re doing it wrong.

2. Tyreek Hill (Bye - Week 10) - The Flash of the NFL. Hill is the burner we all wish we can be. And he’s been doing for a good while now. Hill may very well be the best fantasy player year in and year out, and while Tua was healthy last year, he may have had the best chance. Even with Tua in and out of the lineup, Hill finished 3rd in targets at 168. He finished 4th in TM YDS (Rec Yards per Market Share) at 35.9%. Of the 168 targets, 140 were on the first read. The Dolphins are calling plays for Tyreek Hill and Tyreek Hill only. He was 8th in AY Share (Air Yards) at 41.5%. He’s just a physical specimen who can outrun everyone. And the best thing for a receiver like that is when you have an accurate QB. And boy, does he ever.

3. Ja’Marr Chase (Bye - Week 7) - People forget Chase only played 12 games last year due to an injury. And even with those games, Chase still finished as WR11 in 2022. While Jefferson is the best fantasy player and Hill is the fastest one, Chase has the best chemistry with his quarterback. And that counts for a lot. Chase was first in RTE at 94.7% last season while placing 15th in targets at 127. However, if you pro rate his targets over a healthy 17 game season, it comes out to 180 - which would have been good for number one. He ranked 4th in YACO at 238 and 8th in TM TD (Touchdown Market Share) at 33.3%. And for good measure, he finished T-4th in Endzone targets with 15. Chase is just as much as a machine as Jefferson and Hill, but one can argue that his ceiling as actually higher than both players.

4. Davante Adams (Bye - Week 13) - Everyone is waiting for Adams production to fall off. Newsflash: its not going to. Davante just continues to produce. In a year where the QB position in Vegas was in flux, Adams ranked 3rd 92.3% at RTE while finishing 5th in AY Share at 42.5%. He was 2nd in the NFL in targets at 169 while collecting a TM Yds share of 36.3, good for 3rd; and a 50% TM TD rate, good for 2nd. He also had 15 end zone targets. The Raiders force fed Adams the football last year, and it proved fruitful for him. He finished WR3 last season, which not only showed he isn’t slowing down, but actually may be showing improvement. This year he has Jimmy G, who is comparable in my eyes to Derek Carr. Carr had his worst season as a pro last year and Adams did what I just mentioned. Davante is an easy WR1, even with Jimmy G.

5. Cooper Kupp (Bye - 10) - If you think Davante Adams gets the ball a lot, then I wonder what your thoughts are on Kupp. Right now, in 2023, Cooper Kupp is the Rams offense. He is unguardable. For the first time in his career though, he had a serious injury that limited him to only 9 games throughout the season. He still finished as WR23. In a 12 team league, with 9 games played, Cooper Kupp finished as a low end WR2. Think about that for a second. I would not be shocked if Sean McVay has a “Cooper Kupp” playbook. The amount of times the Rams give him the ball is insane. His XFP/G last year was 19.5, which was good as T-2nd (Chase), only trailing Jefferson. He still finished 1st in TM TD with a 66.7% clip!!!!!! He also finished 6th in AY Share at 41.9%. As long as he is healthy, Kupp is a comfortable WR1, even on a diminishing Rams team.

Tier II

6. Stefon Diggs (Bye - Week 13) - This is not unfamiliar territory for Diggs. The last time the WR was unhappy, he was traded from Minnesota to Buffalo where his career took off with Josh Allen. Now, he is unhappy again; probably for the lack of playoff success by the Bills in the past three seasons. But he remains in Buffalo. And as long as he is there, he is a bonafide fantasy receiver. He continued to put up absolutely insane numbers in a Bills offense that is probably the most pass happy in the NFL. In a division where the Bills see defenses controlled by Bill Belichick and Robert Saleh, Diggs ranked 10th in FP/G against his own division. He also ranked 5th in targets with 151 and 8th in TM YDS with a 33.3% clip. He  also ranked 2nd in Endzone Targets with 18, only trailing DK Metcalf. Diggs’ XFP/G was 18.6, which was good 6th last year in the NFL. All the stats just prove that Diggs production isn’t going anywhere. And if they do, that means either Josh Allen got hurt, Diggs got hurt, or the Bills absolutely imploded - where any of those things is not likely to happen.

7. AJ Brown (Bye - Week 10) - It seems Brown is the latest receiver to absolutely elevate the play of his QB. It all started when the aforementioned Diggs went to Buffalo and juiced up Allen’s career, and Brown did the same for Jalen Hurts. He arguably had the best season in his career while helping lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance. He is now firmly entrenched as the number one guy in Philadelphia for years to come (which is why Jon Robinson is currently out of a GM job). Brown’s XFP/G last season was 15.2, which was good 15th in the NFL, which seems a little low; but when you consider that Hurts had to share the ball with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, it makes more sense. Brown also finished 9th in Air Yards with 40.7% and 12th in targets with 136. He also finished 2nd in YACO with 251 yards after contact. Where Brown really excelled last year was the big play ability and scoring touchdowns. If he can replicate that this year, then he can finish as high as WR4 in my mind. But it is difficult to replicate year over year turnover in the touchdown department, so WR7 seems good for him right now.

8. Garrett Wilson (Bye - Week 7) - The OROY last year was a human joystick. He should start collecting the ankles he’s going to break during his career. Wilson was highly touted coming out of Ohio State, and he lived up the billing last year. Wilson finished 8th in targets with 141 (of which 129 were 1st read targets) and finished 5th in YACO with 232 yards after contact. His XFP/G finished at 15.0, which sits around WR17. But now think of this. He accomplished all this and won offensive rookie of the year with the legendary trio of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White playing QB. Where are those guys now? Well, White is the backup in Miami to Tua. Flacco is still unsigned and should probably retire. Wilson is still in New York, but he is now the backup….to Aaron Rodgers. Yup. If you think Garrett Wilson is not going to take off, you’re insane. Rodgers loves his number one guys. And Davante Adams was the undisputed fantasy GOAT until Justin Jefferson started kicking down doors. But now that Rodgers is in NY, I would not be shocked if at the end of the year, Garrett Wilson is sitting as WR1. You heard it here first.

Tier III

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Bye - Week 9) - We all remember Calvin Johnson in fantasy. I had him a couple of times and I was never disappointed. But Johnson was the 2nd overall draft pick for the Lions and they were unfortunately never really good while he was there (outside of that one season). And after Johnson retired, we weren’t sure when the next Lions great receiver would come. Who knew it would come in the form of a 4th round kid who says the name of every.single.receiver. taken in front of him in his draft class every day before he practices/plays a game. That is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s a dog. And the offense that Ben Johnson has orchestrated in Detroit is fun to watch; and St. Brown is the focal point. Amon-Ra was 6th in targets last year at 143. Of those targets, 118 were on the first read. His XFP/G was 15.4. It was a true explosion. And the Lions are getting better offensively. The addition of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery creates a better, more explosive running back room. We get an almost full year of Jameson Williams. But St. Brown reminds me of when Michael Thomas broke the scene. He killed people with his routes and his catches over the middle of the field. St. Brown did the same, but dare I say with more explosion. When you say to yourself “Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR1?” That’s a definitive yes.

10. Ceedee Lamb (Bye - Week 7) - You know some of the guys you look and you say to yourself why is this guy going so high? That’s Lamb. But when you break down his numbers, it makes total, total sense. Lamb ranked 5th in RTE last season at 90.2%, which is insane for most of those routes coming out of the slot. He ranked 4th in targets with 152. He was 6th in TM YDS share at 34.7%. He had 131 first read targets. The Cowboys want to get him the football. The Amari Cooper departure in Dallas has left the Cowboys with a void for sure, but Lamb still eats. And we have to be able to differentiate the difference between real football and fantasy. In fantasy world, Ceedee Lamb is a low end WR1.

11. Calvin Ridley (Bye - Week 9) - People are scared to think Ridley is going to come back to the NFL with a vengeance. It’s coming folks. I’ve seen Ridley ranked as low as WR27 as high as WR15. But I am putting him at 11 here. Let’s do a hypothetical really quick. If Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin and any other receiver in that same group had Trevor Lawrence as their QB, where would you rank them fantasy wise? If you’re not thinking to yourself hovering around the top 10 you are lying to yourself. Yes, Ridley had a year and a half off. But he’s not playing QB where he has to regenerate the speed of the game. He’s not playing running back where he has to navigate lanes. He’s not playing corner where has to keep up with receivers. He is playing Wide Receiver, where his one job is to catch the ball. That doesn’t just go away. His route running skills don’t disappear. He was touted as one of, not if the best route runner in the NFL before his gambling scandal. He MAY have a 1-2 week rust, but after that, Ridley is a legit WR1 threat. At the very least, his floor is WR15. Draft Ridley with confidence going into this year.

12. Amari Cooper (Bye - Week 5) - Everyone faded Cooper last year after he was traded from Dallas to Cleveland and the Browns QB for 202 was Jacoby Brissett. What Cooper did may have been the most surprising thing of 2022 in the fantasy world. He finished as WR10. That was truly astounding. Cooper thrived in Kevin Stefanski’s offense after a 2021 year in Dallas that was extremely volatile. Cooper ranked 10th in RTE at 86.9%, ranked 7th in AY Share at 41.7%, finished 14th in targets with 128, and in 3rd for Endzone targets at 16. He just had a marvelous, marvelous season. And people are sleeping on him again!!!! That has nothing to do with him though. People have no idea what to expect out of DeShaun Watson in his first full season since 2020. In the 6 games Watson played last year, it wasn’t pretty. But there is room for optimism as Watson is having a full off-season program for the first time in years. But Cooper finished as WR10 with Brissett last year, and if Watson even doesn’t play up to par and plays comparable to Brissett, then we already know that level of play. What’s scary is if Watson is Watson again. Then how high can Cooper fly?

13. DK Metcalf (Bye - Week 5) - Another guy who we thought was going to sink because of the proposed sub-par QB play. Fast forward a year and after Geno took the world by storm for a few months, Metcalf is back in the Top 15 fantasy WR conversation. I have him plugged at 13 here because Smith clearly favored him last year in the redzone. Metcalf led all receivers last season with 22 endzone targets. Of his 141 targets last season (9th), 120 of them were 1st read targets. He had the most receptions in his career with 90, but had the least touchdowns in his career with 6. Having 22 endzone targets with only 6 touchdowns doesn’t add up, so I fully expect that number to go up in 2023. Metcalf had a 15.9 XFP/G in 2022, which was WR12 and finished as WR16 with the lack of touchdown production. I fully expect Metcalf to have a better season than he did last year.

Tier IV

14. DeVonta Smith (Bye - Week 10) - I think Tier 4 starts the receivers that really can’t finish as WR1’s in fantasy for one reason or another, but have clear upside and long term potential. We start with DeVonta Smith, who is the Eagles number 2 receiver, but could be a number one on about 20 other teams. Even while competing with AJ Brown for targets, he finished within the Top 10 with 133 targets. Smith’s XFP/G was only 13.4 last year, which suggests a slight regression, but he has an important part in the Philly offense. He dominated the NFC East last season as well, finishing 3rd in fantasy production against his division. Smith has the big play ability for the Eagles, but as long as he is competing with AJ Brown, its gonna be hard for him to compete for WR1 numbers. His target share though keeps him firmly in the conversation for WR2 numbers.

15. Jaylen Waddle (Bye - Week 10) - Waddle baby Waddle. Jaylen may be the 2nd fastest wide receiver in the league behind his teammate, Tyreek Hill. He was just as successful last year as Hill as Waddle finished as WR8 in 2022. However, his XFP/G came in at 12.8, which suggests a serious regression may be in order, and I tend to agree. While I am big on advanced metrics here, Waddle didn’t come into the top 10 in any of the stats we have mentioned. You only see his name in targets, in which he finished 19th at 117. Waddle benefits from the offense he is in, and being 15th here suggests that he’s a solid WR2. And he is. In Miami, Mike Gesicki is gone and the Fins don’t really have a legitimate WR3 either so Hill and Waddle will garner up all the targets. I think De’Von Achane will garner some attention to, but it really is the Hill and Waddle show in Miami.

16. Diontae Johnson (Bye - Week 6) - This may be the first “shocker” of the rankings. But here is one thing to note. Johnson did not score single touchdown last year. Not one. And his XFP/G was still 15.5. He had the 2nd highest RTE amongst all receivers at a 93.3% rate. He finished as WR30 last year, so he was a flex play without scoring a single time. That will not be the case this year. The Steelers had the worst QB room they’ve had since before the Big Ben era, and now with Kenny Pickett in year two, expect a jump in production. The Steelers have a sneaky good skill group and Johnson led the Steelers with 140 targets last season, which was good for 10th. If you do the math, a handful of touchdowns put Johnson firmly in WR2 range, which is extremely doable.

17. Chris Olave (Bye - Week 11) - I think this kid is ready to take the league by storm. When he came out last year, he was top receiver prospect as I believed he was the most polished receiver. I still believe that. Olave has superstardom written all over him, and his expected jump is noteworthy. Last year Olave finished as WR24 with sub-par QB play all year long and a down year from Alvin Kamara. Even though Derek Carr had his worst year as a pro in 2022, I expect a jump from this Saints offense, and Olave is a huge part of that. Michael Thomas is no longer the alpha in New Orleans. Olave is. He ranked 24th in targets last year with 112, and that number should honestly go up. Olave is big, strong, fast and has great hands. He has all the makings to take a year two leap similar to that of Ceedee Lamb from 21-22.

18. Christian Kirk (Bye - Week 9) - Understand that Kirk last season finished as WR12. He was a WR1 in a 12 team fantasy league last year. After all the hoopla about him not deserving the contract he received, he shoved it in everyone’s face. Kirk is now in the Jags offense for year two, and there is optimism that the offense can be smoother than it was last year. Calvin Ridley is now a part of the group, and that will take away targets from Kirk, but I really think the guy that suffers more in that offense than anyone is Zay Jones. Kirk was all over the field last year for Jacksonville, ranking 16th in targets at 127 and finishing 8th in end zone targets with 13. Zay Jones had 117 targets last year the Jags and that’s where I think Ridley’s lions share comes from. The connection that Kirk and Lawrence have can’t go unmatched. In what will be one of the top passing offenses in the NFL, Kirk will solidify himself as a WR2.

19. Tyler Lockett (Bye - Week 5) - Everyone is waiting for the sky to fall on Lockett. We thought it was gonna be 2021. Then we were sure it was gonna be 2022. All Lockett did was turn in a WR13 year. The long time Seahawk has been consistent now for 5 years. From 2018-2022, Lockett has averaged around 245 fantasy points per year. That’s consistent production from a real good receiver. And with the revival of Geno Smith, there is nothing to signal Lockett will have a down year. While Metcalf ranked 9th in targets in the NFL, Lockett held his own and ranked 23rd with 112. His claim to fame is his big play ability. Now with his role firmly entrenched in the Seattle offense, Lockett feels like he’s due for one big play per game. He has scored in between 8-10 touchdowns in that 5 year stretch, so you can take that to the bank, and the 84 catches he had last year were the 2nd most in his NFL career (100 in 2020). Every time you see his name on draft year, you may want to pass it up for a more “high upside guy”. Don’t. Lockett will produce, as per usual.

20. Michael Pittman (Bye - Week 11) - Did Michael Pittman die and go to heaven?Are we just all out on Pittman now? Pittman finished as WR20 last year with a corpse as his QB. Whether you like it or not, things will be better for Pittman this year. He ranked 4th in RTE% at 91.9 while also finishing 7th in targets with 141. His XFP/G was 15.5. What more does the guy have to do? The quarterback situation in Indianapolis is a question mark with rookie Anthony Richardson and veteran Gardner Minshew. But its gotta be better than 2022, right? It has to be. Pittman is the lone star (currently) in a passing offense that features Alec Pierce as the WR2 and a bunch of unknowns at the TE position. And if Jonathan Taylor actually sits out? It’s Pittman and no one else. Don’t worry about the QB in Indy, Pittman will be fine.

21. DJ Moore (Bye - Week 13) - Does DJ Moore finally have a franchise QB?!?!?!?! We won’t know right away, but Moore is a legitimate receiver who can make defenders miss at an elite rate. Moore finished as WR25 last season with flux at the QB position in Carolina. PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, whoever else may have played QB. Justin Fields did throw the ball deep last year a lot and Moore can go get it. In 2022, Moore ranked 8th in RTE at 87.3% and was 2nd in AY Share at 49.7%. He also finished 25th in targets at 109, but that number should skyrocket with him in Chicago now. Moore has the ceiling to finish as high as WR10, but then could also finish as low as WR30. It really all depends on Justin Fields.

22. Keenan Allen (Bye - Week 5) - Anyone who has Justin Herbert as the QB is in a good position. For the first time since 2016, Allen suffered a significant injury which cost him 7 games. He finished as WR40 hauling in 165 fantasy points. If you pro rate that over 17 games, Allen scores 280 fantasy points, which would have put him as WR7. He’s still got it. That’s my point. And Herbert may be one of the most accurate passers we have in the league, so with Allen being the possession guy that he is, he will get peppered consistently. In watching some Chargers games, when its 3rd down, you have to keep an eye on him, cause he’s probably getting the ball. Yes, the Chargers have mouths to feed. Ekeler, Williams, and now Quentin Johnston. But ya know what? Keenan Allen is still the go to guy on this team. He is a low end WR2.

Tier V

23. Tee Higgins (Bye - Week 7) - I honestly didn’t want to put Higgins here. I’m not crazy about him this year for whatever reason. He had a solid season where he finished as WR19 and put up 220 fantasy points. However, I believe this was a little heightened because Chase did miss 4 games last year. So for a calendar month Higgins was the go to guy. To put things into perspective, Higgins XFP/G last season was 11.5, which is not even in the Top 25 for receivers in 2022. He plays on one of the best offenses in the league with the 2nd best quarterback in the entire NFL, so that doesn’t mean nothing. But he didn’t crack the top 25 in targets in 2022, even with the 4 game absence from Chase. Higgins will finish as a Top 30 receiver without question - he’s a solid NFL receiver. But I actually think he’s more of low end WR2 this year, maybe even closer to a flex.

24. Deebo Samuel (Bye - Week 9) - It seems like that all-pro season from Deebo Samuel was like 10 years ago, right? It was only two. Deebo is not your prototypical receiver and while we saw the peek of it in 2021, I think we saw more of the floor of it in 2022. Samuel finished as WR36 last, which put as a low end flex last season! I don’t think he is going to be that floor this year. Brock Purdy is healthy and he seemed to elevate everyone in that offense last season. And Kyle Shanahan is a certified dog in the offensive scheme system. He will get the ball in his best playmaker’s hands. Deebo still led all of the NFL last year in YACO with 275 yards. But he didn’t rank inside the top 25 in targets, which was something that was a little concerning. It seemed that Aiyuk and Kittle benefited the most from Purdy. I can’t put Deebo that low though - his playmaking ability along with the fact he can break tackles at an elite rate make him a threat to go the distance anytime he touches the ball. His 13.7 XFP/G suggests he is in for an uptick in production, and I agree with that as well.

25. Chris Godwin (Bye - Week 5) - Someone has to eat on this offense, right? More often than not, when teams suffer in QB play from the prior year, its usually the possession guys that don’t suffer the most. Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is a huge drop-off for a guy like Mike Evans, who is a deep ball threat. Mayfield’s game is short and intermediate and I think Godwin will be the guy he looks for consistently. Godwin finished as WR18 last season amidst the poor play by the Bucs offense, and I think he suffers a little bit from the dipped QB play. I mean, you are going from the GOAT to…Baker Mayfield. Godwin finished 11th in targets last year with 138. I do think the Bucs will run the ball way, way more than they have in previous years, but the more simplified Tampa Bay offense should see a similar target share for Godwin. Maybe not 138, but he is still worthy of a mid-round selection and a weekly flex play to start the year.

26. Terry McLaurin (Bye - Week 14) - I have a lot of respect for Scary Terry. Not once in this man’s career has he had any sort of competent QB play, and year after year he puts up stud numbers. Last season he finished as WR14 with Wentz and Heinicke playing hot potato on who wanted the position less. McLaurin’s XFP/G last season was 12.7, which is low end WR2/FLEX play status, and I think that continues this year with 2nd year QB Sam Howell. McLaurin finished 21st in targets last year with 114, and I think that number may go up if Howell can play the position. He finished 9th in the NFL in TM Yds% (31.5), which suggests he gets a large chunk of the Commanders receiving yards. He haunted the NFC East finishing 7th in WR FP against his own division. Out of everyone on this list, McLaurin has the status to climb the highest I think due to the fact that the QB position is unknown. If Howell hits, McLaurin can be a WR1. For now, we leave him where he is.

27. DeAndre Hopkins (Bye - Week 7) - This ranking has more to do with Hopkins situation than it does with him. He served a suspension last year with Arizona and once he came back, Kyler got hurt so it was kind of a lost year for the future Hall of Famer. His XFP/G suggests that he is going to see an increase in production as he had the 7th highest XFP/G (17.3). He is the best WR on the team by a wide margin and will see volume, but the Titans are a run first team and that won’t change. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a poor year where he got hurt towards the end - that won’t change. The offensive line is worse than its been in many, many years. There aren’t a lot of positives on that side of the ball. So color me skeptical about Hopkins in what he can produce in this offense. Also, the last two HOFs that went to Tennessee towards the end of their careers - Randy Moss and Julio Jones; didn’t fare very well. Hopkins is a flex to start the year with WR2 upside.

28. George Pickens (Bye - Week 6) - Talk about talent. Pickens has it by the boat loads. He showed some last year, but only on occasion. The Steelers have a rich history of really great wide receivers; Lynn Swann, Hines Ward, Antonio Brown. I think Pickens can be the next one. This guy has glue for hands and he’s a strong, strong guy. The reason he fell in the draft last year was due to his off the field issues, but we haven’t seen those yet in the NFL. Pickens finished 10th in aDOT last season (Average depth per target) at 15.3, so he is a threat down the field. He also ranked 10th in TM TD Share at 33.3% for Pittsburgh. Him and Diontae Johnson form a real nice duo in Pittsburgh. If Pickett can put it together then there is room for both Pickens and Johnson to both be fantasy relevant.

29. Drake London (Bye - Week 11) - It seems almost like London had a disappointing rookie season last year because you didn’t hear his name a lot. He finished the year as WR29, which was worthy of a flex spot. This Falcons team is full of untapped potential now (London, Pitts, Robinson) but the drafting of Robinson is going to impact all the Falcons weapons. He is immediately the go-to guy on that offense with London being the secondary. Desmond Ridder started the final four games for the Falcons last year with mixed results, and this year he has the keys to the car. London finished 20th in targets with 115. Will that number go up or down? I am honestly not sure - it depends on how much the Falcons run the ball. I think right now London is a long term investment and a week to week matchup flex play until the Falcons and Ridder can solidify the passing game.

30. Brandon Aiyuk (Bye - Week 9) - Aiyuk is a really interesting receiver in San Francisco. He is the most prototypical receiver that the 49ers have in that offense, even more so than Deebo. But Aiyuk is extremely volatile. In 2020-2021 he finished as WR33 and WR34, respectively, but las year he seemed to explode and finished as WR15. I don’t know if that seems sustainable though. Last year was Samuel’s floor, and I think SF will get back to giving him the ball. The Niners also now have a full year of Christian McCaffrey. And get this, when Purdy took over in SF, these were his WR finishes per week: 44, 28, 74, 32, 3, 40. That is…not great. To say the least. But that’s what I mean about volatility. You can’t trust Aiyuk on a week to week basis. Aiyuk’s XFP/G was 12.3, which supports this view as well. It’s not that I’m not high on him, I just think WR15 was kind of a career year for him - at least in San Francisco.

31. Mike Evans (Bye - Week 5) - Ok, ok. I’ll stop the Mike Evans slide. But I do think the slide is real here. Yes, Evans finished 2022 with an XFP/G of 16.9, which ranked 8th in the NFL. He finished as WR17 last year. He was 5th in the NFL against his division last season. His AY Share was 4th at 42.9%. He was 17th in targets at 123. I can go on and on. There is even a case that Evans is a hall of fame receiver when its all set and done; and the numbers support that. But I am also a believer of receivers being on good teams. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not be a good football team. And Baker Mayfield is not a guy who is good throwing the ball down the field. And when Tom Brady is not there to drop dimes 40 yards down the field, I think Evans will suffer. Evans has big play ability, and he was occasionally still make those big plays, but I am going to stay away from him this year. If you do draft him though, he is not an every week starter. Not unless Baker or Kyle Trask find Jesus.

32. Mike Williams (Bye - Week 5) - Big play Mike. That’s what we should call him in LA, since he resides with the QB with possibly the best arm in the entire NFL. As long as Herbert is launching that thing, Williams is a flex option with WR2 upside. He’s not a guy that’s ever going to rank inside the Top 10 or even 25 in any major category. But he has big play ability and can score at an elite rate. His XFP/G last year was 12.2, suggesting that can be a viable flex play. A couple of years ago, Williams was elite and people thought he was going to take off. In 2022, the Chargers offense took a step back. With new OC Kellen Moore, we will see what’s in store for the Chargers offense and Williams in 2023.

33. Jerry Jeudy (Bye - Week 9) - Let me start off by saying this: this is it for Jeudy. This is the year he either becomes a bust or a stud. There is no in between anymore. He was drafted in Round 1 and was expected to become the next great receiver - but he finished 2022 as WR22 in a terrible Broncos offense. With the entrance of Sean Payton, everyone is expecting this offense to be better than it was last year; it has to, right? We believed Courtland Sutton was the guy in the offense, and now it looks like Jeudy is the number one option (finally). Jeudy finished 7th in TM TD% at 35.3. But Sutton led the team with 14 end zone targets. He finished the year with 100 targets and 67 receptions, but he has yet to crack 1,000 yard season in the league. If you’re going to be the guy who takes the risk on Jeudy, then make sure he’s your flex guy to start the season. But like a lot of guys in this tier, he has WR2 upside if he can get going.

34. Christian Watson (Bye - Week 6) - Coming off a rookie season where he flashed in the later months, all eyes are now on Watson. Jordan Love is officially the new QB of the Green Bay Packers, and Watson is WR1. This Packers core is growing up together, so it should be fun to see them rock in the coming years. Watson had a knack for the end zone last season as he finished 7 touchdowns on only 41 catches. He only had 66 targets. Those numbers will go up significantly this season. I can see a world where Watson garners close or even surpasses 100 targets. That immediately makes him draftable. His 9.5 XFP/G last year super low and almost touchdown dependent, but last season was weird for the Packers. A lot of this hinges on Love as well. But I don’t think he’s going to be abysmal. I think he’s going to be fine. Watson is not a stud by any stretch, but he’s a viable flex play depending on the matchup with WR2 upside.

35. Odell Beckham Jr. (Bye - Week 13) - Beckham is the best receiver Lamar Jackson has ever had. Period. That should mean something. Beckham is coming off an ACL injury that he suffered in the 2021 Super Bowl and he didn’t play in 2022. So all is on the table for 2023. Is Beckham slower than usual? Can he be the same Beckham pre-injury? These are all questions that are going to be answered this year. But one thing is certain here. If Odell can turn back the clock for at least one season…watch the hell out. He’s slipping to the late rounds in drafts. If you see him there in Round 10 and are thinking about it: Do it. It can’t hurt. You know the floor, but the upside is real.

Tier VI

36. Jaxon Smith-Njiba (Bye - Week 5) - The first receiver rookie is on the board. And this one is a good one. Smith-Njiba was the first receiver taken int he 2023 draft and should have an instant impact in the Seahawks offense. He will operate out of the slot and has an opportunity to be a slot merchant this season. With Metcalf patrolling the outside and Lockett as the deep threat, the Seahawks were missing a guy to gut the middle of the field. Now they have their guy in Smith-Njiba. Geno Smith was super accurate last year, and even if he takes a dip this year, he should be able to get the ball to the rookie at least 50-60 times this year. When you draft Smith-Njiba, know that he’s not going to be an every week guy. But this is a long term investment. And if you’re in a keeper, obviously target JSN.

37. Michael Thomas (Bye - Week 11) - I don’t know why Michael Thomas is so low on a lot of these boards. When Thomas is healthy, he’s a stud. But his unhappiness in New Orleans has been noted for the past couple of years. In 2023 though, Thomas seems to have the best cast of characters around him since Brees left the Saints. He’s got Olave, Kamara and now Derek Carr as support; so Thomas shouldn’t feel he has to do everything himself. He is in the same group as Odell Beckham. He has to prove it. All Thomas has proved the past couple of seasons is that he can’t stay healthy. That’s why his ADP is so low. I wouldn’t count on him as someone who will be there for you every week, but if he’s healthy, you may have found a gold mine.

38. Kadarius Toney (Bye - Week 10) - We finally get to the first Chiefs receiver. And the reason we mention Toney first is because he has the most talent out of this bunch. After being traded from New York to Kansas City, Toney’s impact grew from week to week. He battled minor injuries during his first season in KC, but going into year two he could have a big impact. Mahomes went his way in the playoffs in big moments; and Toney delivered. With the departure of Juju Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs will now be looking for a new WR1. I think. Toney has the best chance to start the year to take that throne. With the Chiefs receivers though, its Kelce and then everyone else.

39. Elijah Moore (Bye - Week 5) - I love Elijah Moore this year. That’s really it. He was misused on the Jets his entire tenure, and now he is in Cleveland with DeShaun Watson, Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb. Moore is a solid gadget player, and he will be used as such. Moore is a guy that should be able to get in space and make people miss. The Browns already have their outside guys - Cooper and Peoples-Jones. Now they have their Deebo Samuel in Elijah Moore. There will be weeks where Moore is featured, and weeks where he is not. That’s what makes him intriguing and worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.

40. Jordan Addison (Bye - Week 13) - Our second rookie receiver lies in Minnesota. This one is more about opportunity than anything. With the departure of Adam Thielen, Addison has an opportunity to take that number two receiver role. Yes, KJ Osborn is there, but there is also a reason Minnesota drafted a wide receiver with their first round pick. A ton of draft experts had Addison as their top wide receiver prospect and him being drafted late in round one was no surprise. Addison has a consistent QB in Kirk Cousins, so he should get plenty of opportunities. Addison has the best chance I think of all the rookies to get off to the hottest fantasy start.

41. Gabe Davis (Bye - Week 13) - Last season we were all expecting Gabe Davis to take that enormous leap and become a legit WR2 in Buffalo. That never happened. Davis was an underwhelming flex play last year and was on many people’s benches towards the end of the season. He has a chance this year to make up for 2022. There are some encouraging numbers though; he finished 9th in RTE at 87.2% last year and 8th in aDOT at 16. The opportunities were there, he just didn’t convert. In my opinion, this is a make or break year for Davis in Buffalo. It’s also a make or break year for him in fantasy. The people that draft Davis won’t start him nor should they. It’s kind of a wait and see approach.

42. Zay Jones (Bye - Week 9) - Let me start off by saying Zay Jones had a career season last year. He finished as WR26 and had a career season. He saw the most targets he’s ever seen (121), most receptions (82) and most yards (823). And being in an offense with Trevor Lawrence will also help that as well. Unfortunately for Zay, the opportunities this upcoming season may not be as plentiful due to the arrival of Calvin Ridley. More so than Christian Kirk, I think the Ridley targets will eat into Jones more than anyone. This doesn’t mean Jones is going to be bad by any stretch. He is the WR3 in a top 10 NFL offense, which is a real good thing. And there will be weeks where Zay is the Jaguars leading receiver. But it won’t be nearly as consistent as it was in 2022. He is absolutely worth a draft pick late and a roster spot. And if Ridley or Kirk miss anytime, he is a bonafide flex play/WR2.

43. Allen Lazard (Bye - Week 7) - Lazard is attached at the hip with Aaron Rodgers. Pretty good hip to be attached to. And while Lazard has great chemistry with A-Rod, his fantasy relevance is limited. Lazard will never be the number one option on a good team, but he will get his catches every now and then. In his career, he has never finished higher than WR34, which is where he finished last season. And that was without Davante Adams. Now with Garrett Wilson occupying the Adams role in the Rodgers-led Jets offense, expect Lazard to take another back seat fantasy wise. His 2021 finish of WR47 is probably more accurate.

44. Courtland Sutton (Bye - Week 9) - The shine has clearly worn off on Sutton. Last year was the year he was supposed to take off, but he did anything but; like a lot of the Broncos offensive players. It did seem though like Russ favored Jeudy on a more consistent basis, even though Sutton was 8th in the NFL in end zone targets (14). I think at this Sutton is what he is, but a lot of reports out of Denver’s camp say that Sutton has slimmed down a little and looks great in camp. But doesn’t everyone always look great in camp. This Broncos offense is a huge mystery and Sutton fits perfectly into that category. He can be a weekly bench guy or he can be a weekly flex play.

45. Zay Flowers (Bye - Week 13) - Flowers is another first round rookie receiver drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in what seems like a never ending list. Can this one be different though? I actually loved what I saw on tape for Zay Flowers coming out of Boston College and think his game translates to today’s NFL really well. Lets also not forget that Todd Monkey is the new OC in Ravens country, and Monkey does like to toss the pigskin. For the first time in his career, Lamar Jackson has some legitimate weapons with Flowers being one of them. The trio of Andrews, Beckham and Flowers is nothing to sneeze out in Baltimore. And Flowers could finally break the trend of Ravens wide receiver busts.

46. Brandin Cooks (Bye - Week 7) - Remember Brandin Cooks? Yea, he’s in Dallas now. After throwing his temper tantrum in Houston, he stayed in the lone star state, but is now teaming up with Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb. Cooks, at his core, is a burner. Something the Cowboys haven’t really had in a while. But Cooks concussion issues throughout his career strikes fear in fantasy owners, and it kind of strikes fear in me as well. Interestingly enough though, every year Cooks has played 15+ games, he’s never finished lower than WR20. When he doesn’t play that many games, he’s not even roster worthy. So this huge differential is something to take into account as well. My ranking of 46 kinda tells you where I stand.

47. Skyy Moore (Bye - Week 10) - When Moore was drafted last year, people expected him to be the greatest thing since sliced bread because he was playing with Mahomes. That never came to fruition as he was left out in the cold for most of the season. He didn’t score his first touchdown until the Super Bowl! Entering year two though, Moore is expected to take a leap of some sorts. Being a gadget type guy, Andy Reid can always use him in a variety of different ways. But the way the Chiefs run their offense, I don’t think there are a lot of plays on the call sheet for those types of trick plays, jet sweeps and what have you. How relevant was Mecole Hardman in fantasy? Not very. Moore is watched because he is an athletic freak, but it’s going to be tough for him to be consistent.

48. Jakobi Meyers (Bye - Week 13) - Meyers is a good receiver. He finished as WR28 this past season in New England amid some QB controversy. So why do I have him so low this year? Simple. He finished as WR28 where he was “the guy” in New England. He now goes to a place with a similar QB, a familiar face (Josh McDaniels), but now he enters a place where the top dog is Davante Adams. Meyers will not see the same amount of targets he saw with the Pats he will see with Raiders. He also has Hunter Renfrow to compete with, as well as Josh Jacobs presuming he plays. Meyers makes the WR room better for Vegas, but not enough to make a fantasy impact.

49. Hollywood Brown (Bye - Week 14) - Someone has to catch passes in Arizona this year. Brown is recent as of saying that he thinks the Cardinals offense will be “fine”. He might be the only one who thinks that. One thing to note though about Brown - his XFP/G last season was 16.6, which ranked 9th in the NFL. Are we sleeping on him? Maybe. But without Kyler, its hard to envision a world where Brown makes a huge, huge impact. He is worth a late round pick though. The other thing to consider is that if the Cardinals are as poor as we think they’re going to be, there may not be a rush to bring Murray back. That would make Brown almost a liability.

Tier VII

50. Jahan Dotson (Bye - Week 14) - Dotson seemed to find his own last year and was a redzone threat. Even with all though, Dotson finished as WR51. And with the unknown at QB, its hard to rank him much higher than that.

51. Adam Thielen (Bye - Week 7) - Thielen is in a new place with a new coach and a rookie quarterback. The team is significantly less talented than it was in Minnesota and if last year is any indication, Thielen is on the decline.

52. Jalin Hyatt (Bye - Week 13) - The first Giants receiver coming in at 52 tells you all you need to know about this room. Hyatt was my highest ranked receiver coming into the NFL Draft, but its not a good thing when you are asking your potential top dog to be a rookie who needs some work.

53. Tyler Boyd (Bye - Week 7) - Old reliable Tyler Boyd has been in Cincinnati it seems since 1997, but being the number three receiver, his spots are becoming less and less fruitful. Boyd was all the way down to WR38 last season and I think another decline is in store.

54. Jonathan Mingo (Bye - Week 7) - I actually really like the connection Mingo is building with Bryce Young. I think Chark and Thielen will start the year as the go-to receivers, but I do think Mingo, along with JSN and Jordan Addison, have the best opportunity to make a year one impact. Mingo’s game reminds me of DK Metcalf a little, so I hope he gets a chance to make things happen.

55. KJ Osborn (Bye - Week 13) - Osborn kinda took off late during the year last season, but the draft pick of Jordan Addison disspelled any increased role from Osborn going into 2023. More of the same type of season is in for KJ. He has a role, but a limited one in fantasy.

56. Quentin Johnston (Bye - Week 5) - The Chargers rookie walks into a crowded, crowded skill group in Los Angeles. I think his draft pick is one that will eventually replace Keenan Allen, but going into year one I would surprised if Johnston makes a real fantasy impact.

57. Donovan Peoples-Jones (Bye - Week 5) - DPJ should see more playing time. He is nice outside threat that will make plays for Cleveland. He just doesn’t make enough to make him a serious every week starter in fantasy. He should be a late round draft pick though.

58. Juju Smith-Schuster (Bye - Week 11) - Juju was WR27 with Patrick Mahomes and being the number one guy in KC. His fantasy value absolutely plummets as he goes to New England with Mac Jones now. Smith-Schuster is not going to be someone who burns a guy for 60 yards through the air or with YAC. He is a possession receiver, and being in NE, that means nothing for fantasy.

59. Romeo Doubs (Bye - Week 6) - Doubs turned heads in pre-season last season but was never able to transfer it to the field. He now has a second chance to do that, but this time with the quarterback in pre-season he was doing it with - Jordan Love. In terms of passing options, he is probably third trailing Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.

60. Treylon Burks (Bye - Week 7) - The 1st round rookie from last year was downright terrible. He was supposed to replace AJ Brown and yet he showed up to camp last year out of shape and that predicate his entire season. The Titans brought in DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season to be the number one guy, and Chig Okonkwo is making some headway for targets as well. I’m not calling Burks a bust yet, but another year similar to last year and he will have that label.

61. Rashod Bateman (Bye - Week 13) - The addition of both Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers leaves the oft-injured Bateman as a distant afterthought in the Ravens passing game. He will still see ample opportunities as he was a first round selection just a couple of seasons ago, but its hard to expect anything from now with all the additions in the passing game.

Tier VIII

62. John Metchie III (Bye - Week 7) - Metchie will play his rookie season after battling 2022 with health issues. When he was healthy, he was really solid at Alabama. I put him in the same group as Jalin Hyatt, although coming off the health issue, it may take longer to adjust.

63. Jameson Williams (Bye - Week 9) - Williams is missing the first six games because of a gambling violation, but when he returns he will likely see WR2 duties. Last year when he returned it was not pretty, and he seems to have a slight drop problem. This will be year 2/2 where he doesn’t play the full season.

64. Darnell Mooney (Bye - Week 13) - The Bears finally have an alpha in DJ Moore in the receiver room. And the battle for the number two spot will be between Mooney and Chase Claypool, but neither of them has really been able to seize the opportunity. I don’t think that’s a great thing. Mooney has an apt to get injured as well.

64. Tank Dell (Bye - Week 7) - This little dynamo is like an energizer bunny who can lineup anywhere on the field for the Texans. Like all the other Houston receivers though, the target share is going to be a minefield.

65. Rashee Rice (Bye - Week 10) - For some reason, Rice reminds me of Dwayne Bowe. And for Chiefs fans, that’s a real good thing. The only issue is that if Skyy Moore had trouble getting on the field last year, I think Rice may find similar troubles this year. But this dude can ball, and if he gets an opportunity, he can skyrocket up these rankings.

66. Darius Slayton (Bye - Week 13) - Slayton is probably the best receiver right now the Giants have, but with the addition of Hyatt, Parris Campbell and Darren Waller, I don’t think there is a lot of room for Slayton to solidify himself as an every week option.

67. Alec Pierce (Bye - Week 11) - A second year receiver with a rookie QB who needs work. Not to mention that Pierce was a little behind the 8 ball last season as well. Love Pierce the prospect, but maybe one year too early on a breakout for this guy.

68. Van Jefferson (Bye - Week 10) - Jefferson now steps into the Allen Robinson role of WR2 for the Rams. Jefferson has some talent, but the Rams offense was a horror show last year even with Stafford. Kupp also garners almost all of the attention, and with Higbee being option number its Jefferson and Tutu Atwell to fight for targets.

69. DJ Chark (Bye - Week 7) - The deep threat option last season didn’t finish inside the top 60. He’s had one season (2019) where he finished inside the Top 20. Other than that, his highest finish has been WR49 in 2020. Avoid.

70. Curtis Samuel (Bye - Week 14) - You remember when people were fighting for Samuel’s services back in 2021. While he had a solid year last year, I think Dotson overtakes him for WR2 duties this year, as he was an earlier round pick while Samuel takes that gadget role. Problem is, in Washington, they don’t much of an offense.

71. Hunter Renfrow (Bye - Week 13) - Don’t forget about Hunter! An injury riddled 2022 saw people drop him off like flies, but he still has a place in the offense. The connection with Jimmy G is the question though as it seemed him and Derek Carr were always on the same page.

Tier IX

72. Nico Collins (Bye - Week 7) - Maybe the main WR option in Houston to start, but could end up being the 4th by seasons end.

73. Rashid Shaheed (Bye - Week 11) - Apart from this dude’s name, Shaheed is a distant 4th-5th option in the Saints pass game.

74. Parris Campbell (Bye - Week 13) - Everyone thinks this guy is gonna turn into Mike Evans and he just…doesn’t.

75. Mack Hollins (Bye - Week 11) - This bruising receiver is now in Atlanta where he can make some tough, contested catches.

76. Rondale Moore (Bye - Week 14) - Every team has to have two receivers ranked…right?

77. Marvin Mims Jr. (Bye - Week 9) - With the injury to KJ Hamler, Mims may actually produce as a rookie.

78. DeVante Parker (Bye - Week 11) - See above for the two receiver thing.

Tier X

79. Chase Claypool (Bye - Week 13) - This guy fell off a cliff that I don’t think he’ll ever be able to climb back up from.

***Bonus***

80. Allen Robinson II (Bye - Week 6) - Cause Why Not.