Fantasy Football SZN - Tight Ends
We’ve covered Quarterbacks. We’ve covered Running Backs. We’ve covered Wide Receivers. But we absolutely cannot forget about Tight Ends! The evolution of the Tight End position from 1980-2023 has been astonishing. Not only have we seen the position become a vital part of offenses, but we have seen guys such as Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce become the focal point of their offenses. We live in a different world. And while in years past the TE position we not really considered “deep”, I think this year may be a little different. Different in the sense that there are a lot of up and comers. When you get to Tier 3 and Tier 4, you’re gonna say to yourself “Hey, I like those guys.” Well, we do too. Everyone loves Travis Kelce, and you should draft him with confidence in Round 1. But if you find yourself facing a Dallas Goedert/Pat Freiermuth dilemma in Round 6, that’s a pretty good spot to be in as well. To complete our positional rankings of 2023, here are our tiers for the Tight End position.
As always, our advanced metrics come from fantasypoints.com. Make sure you check them out for great articles and in depth analysis.
Tier I
Travis Kelce (Bye - Week 10) - Kelce belongs in a tier all by himself. Every year he puts up the numbers he puts up, he solidifies himself more and more as the greatest Tight End to ever play the game. Last year was no different as he scored a whopping 317.3 fantasy points, over 100 points more than TE2. That’s not only alarming, but that’s hall of fame fantasy stuff. Its just one of those things that you can’t quantify. He finished 3rd RTE at 77.6%. He finished 2nd in AY Share at 28.7% as well as first in targets with 147. 113 of those were on the first read. He finished 1st in YACO with 279 yards. That’s not only first for all TE’s, that was good for number one in the NFL. A Tight End, with the most YACO in the entire league. Astounding. Kelce is the only TE ever who could and should be drafted in Round 1 of your fantasy league. He is the equivalent to a WR1.
Tier II
2. TJ Hockenson (Bye - Week 13) - The HOCK has risen up over the past couple of seasons and should now firmly be the TE2 in fantasy. He has absolutely surpassed Mark Andrews. Hockenson ranked 7th in RTE last season at 74.5%, but that number should go up because of the departure of Irv Smith Jr. He was 2nd in targets at 126 and was 2nd in YACO at 228. Hockenson is the number two passing option in the Vikings offense behind Justin Jefferson, but make no mistake: Hockeson is as sure a pass catcher in the league as any tight end there is, including Travis Kelce.
3. Mark Andrews (Bye - Week 13) - Andrews has been a model of consistency over the past couple of seasons, being the number one passing target for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Now with the arrival of Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, Andrews should get a little bit of a break. But he is still the safety blanket for this offense and someone who can stretch the field. He has mitts for hands as well. He finished as TE4 last year, but was more volatile than in years past. He did rank 1st in RTE at 83.4% and 1st in AY Share at 37.1%. That’s the number I think may take a dip. He’s still going to own all the route from a TE perspective for Baltimore, but the new weapons may get more opportunities down the field. I still expect him to get a bunch of targets (106 in ’22), but wouldn’t be shocked to see that number fall under 100 this year. Even with all of the numbers and the potential of a decline above, I still think that Andrews is a firm TE3, even with the potential decline. However, unlike in years past where you may want to take him late in round two or early round 3, I would definitely wait. I think a bunch of guys could possibly surpass him this year.
4. Evan Engram (Bye - Week 9) - Speaking of a guy that can possibly surpass Andrews in fantasy points this year. Engram seemed to finally figure it out in Jacksonville last year as he put career highs across the board in route to a TE5 finish in fantasy. He had 97 targets (5th) along with a 73.8% RTE (7th). The addition of Calvin Ridley may sting a little, but as I mentioned in the Wide Receiver piece, I think that hurts Zay Jones the most. The fact is this - Doug Pederson loves his tight ends. When he was in Philly, Ertz and Goedert were a dynamic duo. And now in Jacksonville, he is trying to re-create that with Engram and the second round selection of Brenton Strange. However, with how much Tight Ends tend to struggle as rookies, I would not be too worried about Strange this year.
5. George Kittle (Bye - Week 9) - Kittle was the top target for Brock Purdy during the last six week of the season. That can’t be denied. Kittle’s explosion at the end of November and December thrusted him to a TE3 finish, being one of only three TEs to have over 200 points. Kittle ranked 2nd in RTE with 78.1% and finished 3rd in AY Share with 24.5%. He also finished first in end zone targets, being the only Tight End to receive double digit targets (11). Kittle seems to start seasons off slow and then really gain steam towards the end of the season, so if you do draft him: be patient. It may be worth drafting another tight end later who can toggle with until Kittle takes off.
Tier III
6. Darren Waller (Bye - Week 13) - Whenever Waller is healthy, he puts up numbers. However, he has really been unable to do that over the past couple of seasons. He does seem to have a new start in New York with the Giants as he walks into a situation where is the number one passing option. He offers Daniel Jones something he’s never had before (and what Kenny Golladay was supposed to be), a sure handed catcher. Waller has made some incredible catches in his career and we get reminded of how good he is off the bounce. He may be the most athletic tight end in the league along with Evan Engram and David Njoku. If Waller stays healthy, he can finish as high as TE2. But you can’t take that risk without drafting a sure thing later. Pairing Waller with a guy like Chig Okonkwo or Tyler Conklin would be a really smart idea.
7. Pat Freiermuth (Bye - Week 6) - The former Nittany Lion was touted in the draft in 2021, and unlike many before him, he really didn’t suffer from the Tight End curse. He also didn’t make a jump in 2022, he actually regressed by 2 points if you can believe that. But that was with a rookie QB and a journeyman one. Now, Pickett is in year 2. And Freiermuth is in year 3. So if the Fry Guy was going to explode, this is the year. Last season he finished at TE7 and finished 6th in targets with 95. He ranked 4th in TM Yds share at 21.2%. He also surprisingly finished 3rd in YACO with 178 yards. I think Freiermuth starts the expected dip in the tight end department, but I think he can easily surprise, which is why I put him in this group.
8. Dallas Goedert (Bye - Week 10) - This guy is a beast. Let’s get that out of the way. He missed some time last year, but he is a clear target in the Eagles system. After Brown and Smith, it’s Goedert and no one else. Even with the time missed, Goedert ranked 10th in 1st read targets with 59, even though he wasn’t in the top 10 for targets in 2023. That tells me they would have run plays for him even more if he was healthy. I specifically remember the game against the Jets where he torched them for two scores and remember that Goedert is that dude. Draft him with confidence as a TE1 with upside.
9. Dalton Schultz (Bye - Week 7) - The highest ranked Texan I have in fantasy this year. He should undoubtedly be the number one option to start the season, and with a rookie QB now there in CJ Stroud, he should feast. He is a sure pass catcher and extremely good in space. He ranked 7th in targets last season with 86 and was 10th in AY Share at 18.6%. He also lined up as TE1 for Dallas 73.1% of the time. That number should go up this year in Houston as they don’t have someone who will challenge for reps like Jake Ferguson did last season. Even though Schultz is not playing on the same type of offense, he will receive the same, even more volume.
10. David Njoku (Bye - Week 5) - Is this finally the year that Njoku becomes the monster we all think he can be? He has Watson now to throw him the ball consistently. He was actually on the field last year more than you thought he was. He ranked 9th in RTE at 72.7% and 8th in TM YDs at 20.3%, so he can get the field. He had 6 end zone targets, and while that doesn’t seem like a lot, for a TE that isn’t really featured in the offense, it wasn’t bad. Another full year of Njoku being undisputed TE1, he can surprise a few people.
Tier IV
11. Jake Ferguson (Bye - Week 7) - This is where we start to get a little hazy on the position and question which guy to take. At this point, if you haven’t taken a tight end, you may be playing matchup from week to week. I will say though, no one, and I mean no one knew who Dalton Schultz was the year he played for Dallas. And now look at him. I think Jake Ferguson can be in the same conversation. He made some strides last year in the pass game, but this year he comes in as number one on the depth chart with Luke Schoonmaker being the rookie backup. Ferguson has shown ability to make tough catches and be a redzone threat, and in the Dallas offense that can be lethal, that’s definitely worthy of a pick.
12. Cole Kmet (Bye - Week 13) - Kmet got paid this offseason to stay in Chicago. And for the first time in a while, there is a lot of hype around the Bears offense. Kmet is one of the reasons why. He ranked 10th in RTE last season at 72.7%. But the Bears offense sputters halted him taking more of a step than he probably should have. Putting Kmet at 12 is kind of betting on Fields to take that next step. If he does, Kmet can easily be a Top 10 Tight End. If not, he can fall as low as TE20.
13. Kyle Pitts (Bye - Week 11) - Pitts is one year away from owning the bust label. Touted as the best tight end to ever come out of college football, Pitts has yet to be effective on a consistent basis. He’s been a downright disaster. And yet, experts and pundits STILL have this guy as a projected top five tight end. It is laughable. Until Pitts becomes that guy, he is a week to week matchup tight end play with another one. Pitts did not rank inside the top 10 in RTE last year. He did finish 2nd in aDOT at 13.9 and 7th in AY Share at 22.0 But he finished outside the top 10 in targets and outside the top 5 in YACO. He was also nowhere to be seen in the upper echelon of red zone targets. Whatever it is, Pitts is not performing. Based on talent alone, I have him here at 13. But I specifically put him at 13 because as of right now, he is not a starting TE in fantasy.
14. Greg Dulcich (Bye - Week 9) - This is my sleeper TE of 2023. A lot of the numbers suggest that Dulcich may actually be Russ’s favorite target in Denver. Which is quite shocking since everyone was in on Albert O last season. Dulcich finished 5th in RTE at 75.9 and 6th in AY Share at 22.5. He finished 4th in aDOT at 12.5. Under Sean Payton, there was a guy by the name of Jimmy Graham (you may remember) who was the best end zone threat in the entire NFL. See where I’m going with this? Dulcich has the best chance of any TE in this tier to hop into the Top 5 this season.
15. Zach Ertz (Bye - Week 14) - As of August 14th, the Cardinals reported that Ertz is 100% ready to go for the beginning of the 2023 season. That is great news for Ertz who was having a resurgent year in Arizona before he went down with a season ending injury. Without Kyler to start the year, Ertz is a fantasy bench option, but he is 100% worthy of a roster spot, because when Kyler comes back, he is without a doubt a TE fantasy starter.
16. Tyler Conklin (Bye - Week 7) - A-Rod doesn’t use tight ends a ton, but he does target them in the red zone a lot. I think that’s where Ty Conklin will have a lot of his opportunities this year. He actually finished 10th in TE targets last year with 80, but the numbers didn’t support his TE16 finish. Conklin will be fantasy relevant, but he is a bench tight end that may be touchdown dependent.
17. Chig Okonkwo (Bye - Week 7) - The new, full time Tennessee tight end reminds me a lot of Delanie Walker. Like a lot. He was becoming a force towards the end of last year. He wasn’t used enough last season to rank inside the top areas of any advanced metrics, but he has an opportunity to be someone who is used a lot in the passing game. The Titans recently have had good success with pass catching tight ends with the aforementioned Walker and Jonnu Smith.
18. Tyler Higbee (Bye - Week 10) - The Rams used Higbee a lot last season, but I don’t know if that was be design. With Allen Robinson falling flat on his face in LA, McVay kind of pivoted to Higbee as his number two guy. He then became the number one option when Kupp was lost for the year. All in all, Higbee finished as TE6 last season. But I think that was due to all of the factors I just stated above. If Kupp is healthy, his production takes a significant dip. Also keep in mind the Rams want to run the ball more and Van Jefferson has more of a role as a receiver this year. Higbee is a comfortable backup, but will have some nice weeks.
Tier V
19. Gerald Everett (Bye - Week 5) - There were games last year where Gerald Everett was a menace and then games where he was a ghost. That’s kind of been the story of his career though. Being in LA for a second year with the Chargers won’t really change that. They added another wideout in Quentin Johnston and that will take more opportunities away. The only saving grace is that Kellen Moore is the OC, and he turned Dalton Schultz into a star. Or was that Dak? Not quite sure.
20. Dalton Kincaid (Bye - Week 13) - We all know the rookie TE curse; it is alive and well. I don’t think Kincaid is immune to that unfortunately. There is no denying his talent, and I think he has a similar trajectory to TJ Hockenson actually. But the Bills haven’t used their tight ends like that (maybe because they haven’t been able to), but the arrival of Kincaid in Buffalo is a welcome one. They did use a late first round pick on him, so he will have time to grow. With Dawson Knox there, I expect a 50-50 split this season. Absolutely worth a late round pick in dynasty leagues.
21. Juwan Johnson (Bye - Week 11) - Johnson surprised a lot of people last year emerging as the TE1 for New Orleans. He enters this season as the best TE option the Saints have had since Jimmy Graham moved on, and he has Derek Carr as his QB. Johnson will always be limited though as long as Taysom Hill is there. Hill gets a lot of redzone opportunities to catch and run the ball. And with Olave, Thomas, Shaheed and Kamara, I don’t think the Saints have a lot of two TE sets in their playbook.
22. Sam LaPorta (Bye - Week 9) - LaPorta was a very popular pick in the draft this past April and Lions fans seem excited about him. Much like Kincaid, temper your expectations. At least in year one. The Lions traded off Hockenson in division last year and were still ok. I don’t think Ben Johnson is all of the sudden going to change his approach and feature the TE. If they were going to do that, they wouldn’t have trade Hock. It is the St. Brown show in Detroit, and with Jahmyr Gibbs there along with Jameson Williams, LaPorta will have time to entrench himself in this offense.
23. Irv Smith Jr. (Bye - Week 7) - We all though Hayden Hurst would burst onto the scene in Cincinnati. Well, Hurst is in Carolina now. Enter Irv Smith Jr., who was highly sought out in Minnesota but was never able to stay healthy and put it together. He moves on to Cincy where the Bengals don’t really use the tight end in the passing game at all. Smith was only on the field for 50% of routes last year in Minnesota. If he was that good, he would’ve been on the field more. I put him at 23 because the Bengals have a great offense and he may get some limited opportunities, but I think the days of Irv Smith taking off is over.
24. Michael Mayer (Bye - Week 13) - The Notre Dame product was heralded as the most complete tight end in the draft for a long, long period of time. And then he casually fell to day two of the draft where Las Vegas snatched him up to be the replacement for Darren Waller. I do think the league will regret this. Mayer is an animal, and he as a real opportunity to carve out a nice role in Vegas. Jimmy Garoppolo had a great connection with George Kittle, and he may develop one here in Vegas too. The tight end curse lives on, but Mayer is one to watch.
25. Taysom Hill (Bye - Week 11) - The gadget of all gadget players. If Taysom Hill played on every down, he would be a fantasy football icon. But he doesn’t. His package is severely limited and that really hampers him from being draftable. There will be weeks where he scores multiple touchdowns throwing, rushing, catching, but those weeks are few and far between.
Tier VI
26. Luke Musgrave (Bye - Week 6) - Musgrave is another one of the children growing up with the baby Packers. The product out of Oregon State has potential, but he definitely needs to hone his craft a bit. With essentially a rookie QB in Jordan Love, it will take time for him to develop.
27. Mike Gesicki (Bye - Week 11) - The new Patriots “1-2 punch” at tight end consists of Gesicki and Hunter Henry. The former Miami Dolphin had a great opportunity to be part of an elite offense last year with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he was non-existent. I don’t think that’s by coincidence, or was in the game plan. Gesicki has limits, and the Dolphins said no thanks. The Patriots may have one of the worst offenses in the league this year, and Gesicki won’t really help that much.
28. Noah Fant (Bye - Week 5) - Fant was wildly disappointing last season for the Seahawks in a year we saw almost everyone else be successful. He really split time with Will Dissly, and the once promising Iowa Hawkeye prospect is very close to being an afterthought.
29. Logan Thomas (Bye - Week 14) - A few years ago Logan Thomas was a top 10 fantasy option for the position, but since he has regressed and suffered some injuries in the process. Now, the Commanders have a 2nd year starter in Sam Howell who will essentially be a rookie this year. Terry McLaurin is the face of this offense, and with Jahan Dotson supposedly taking a step forward, where does that leave Thomas?
30. Dawson Knox (Bye - Week 13) - Even though Knox has been paid, with the 1st round selection of Dalton Kincaid, the days of Knox being the primary tight end in Buffalo are absolutely, unequivocally, over.
31. Jelani Woods (Bye - Week 11) - Woods scored a couple of touchdowns last season, but his usage was very low. With the new Head Coach in Shane Steichen and new QB in Anthony Richardson, its really hard to pick out where Woods falls in the order of weaponry. He is definitely behind Pittman, Pierce and Taylor though. That leaves him as the 4th option at best.
32. Cade Otton (Bye - Week 5) - The Bucs tight end made some noise this year with Tom Brady, but with Baker Mayfield and potentially Kyle Trask being the new QB1’s, I don’t want to say all hope is lost, but…ya know.
Tier VII
33. Hayden Hurst (Bye - Week 7) - Hurst had his chance in Atlanta with Matt Ryan. Hurst had his chance in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow. Hurst now has his chance in Carolina with rookie Bryce Young. Do me a favor…name me a tight end that Frank Reich really loved in Indianapolis.
34. Luke Schoonmaker (Bye - Week 7) - The Cowboys late round selection is just that. A late round selection. He has no expectations coming into the season, but he did make some plays at Michigan, and if all goes right, he could be the tight end of the future in Dallas.
35. Darnell Washington (Bye - Week 6) - Its really hard to envision a scenario where Washington is impactful this season. With Freiermuth being a legitimate weapon, Mike Tomlin is not going to concede snaps to a rookie. Washington is a physical specimen, but he’s a year away from being fantasy relevant.
