Fantasy Football SZN - Running Backs

The most premium position in Fantasy Football - the Running Back. It has been steadily declining in value over the last few years, and now more than ever, the days of the three down running back are far and few between. The two running back system is in full effect and there is nothing we can do to stop it. Being able to correctly identify solid running backs for fantasy is a skill that can catapult you to the top in more years than not. People want to talk about the “Zero RB” theory and how not drafting a RB until Round 10 is fine. It’s not. You should always try to get the most points as humanly possible at every position. Our tiers below for the position explain where we think the dip starts, but there is talent even as deep as the 50s. You can find a diamond in the rough late, but you can’t bank on those guys. I’m not saying you need to draft a RB in Round 1, but you should have some sort of stud before the 4th round. Onto the rankings….

Running Back Tiers 2023

* Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are omitted as they currently aren’t on an NFL Roster.

Tier I

1. Christian McCaffrey (Bye - Week 9) - The human cyborg. Christian McCaffrey just continues to take names. Last year he was finally healthy and finished as the RB2 behind Austin Ekeler. I think it’s easy to say that CMC is the most well rounded back in league. He runs the ball well and catches the ball well, breaks tackles and scores touchdowns. What more can you ask for? His XFP/G (Expected Fantasy Point Per Game) last season was 18.6, which was good for third amongst all running backs. The name of the game is volume for running backs, and CMC does plenty of that. For Carolina and San Francisco last year, he took 72.8% of the snaps, 244 rushing attempts and had 104 targets. And San Francisco didn’t have any major changes to their offense this season. Kyle Shanahan is still calling plays and if Purdy is healthy, their offense is better. All in all, as long as CMC stays healthy, he is the clear cut RB1 amongst all fantasy.

2. Saquon Barkley (Bye - Week 13) - This was a tough call. But the numbers are heavily in Barkley’s favor here. In the new Brian Daboll offense, Barkley excelled and had his best season since his rookie year. The skill players on the Giants are better this year, so all the focus shouldn’t be on the running back. His XFP/G sits at 17.8 and his XFP for the 2023 season is expected to be slightly better if you can believe that. Barkley led the NFL in Snap % (80.5), was 4th in rushing attempts (295) and 7th in Rush Att %, which is the amount of rushing attempts you get compared to the whole team (59.1%) He also finished inside the Top 10 in targets with 73, tied with Alvin Kamara. He did everything for the G-Men last year, and the ranking at two is due to the fact that he just eats up the lions share of everything the Giants do. Draft Barkley with confidence.

3. Austin Ekeler (Bye - Week 5) - We already had the human cyborg. This is the human pinball. All Austin Ekeler does is catch passes and score touchdowns. The PPR nightmare hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down. Last year he was absolutely absurd as he led all fantasy backs in points (357.7) and total touchdowns with 18. Let’s dive in to some of these numbers, shall we? Ekeler was 4th in the NFL in TD Rate amongst RB (6.4%) while he had 123 receiving targets. Absolutely absurd. He’s not just a receiver though - he ran for over 900 yards on the ground last year as well. But there is a major difference this year. Joe Lombardi is out as the OC while Kellen Moore is in. Someone needed to pay for that 27-0 choke job in January. So how did the Cowboys running backs do last year? Well, it’s interesting. Tony Pollard was 4th in the league in Explosive Run %, but Ekeler doesn’t really qualify as an explosive runner. Pollard was 3rd in the NFL in yards after contact. Ok, I can buy that - Ekeler has a tendency to bounce off guys and is thicker than Pollard. Here is my biggest issue though. Neither Pollard nor Zeke Elliott last year were in the Top 25 of Snap % while Ekeler was 16th. Did Kellen Moore like to use two backs, or did he just have two talented backs so he used them? Elliott was 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts (231) so Moore does run the ball. Lastly, while Herbert had a checkdown percentage north of 11%, Dak’s last year was around 8.5%, so there is a slight dip there. What am I saying with all this. I expect a slight regression from Ekeler. Not one to drop him out of Tier 1 though. He is still the Chargers best skill player and should have more than 100 targets again. I do wonder though if the Chargers will use a different back in goal line situations. We all remember how many touchdowns Elliott vultured away from Pollard last year…

Tier II

4. Bijan Robinson (Bye - Week 11) - I just couldn’t put a rookie in Tier 1. I just couldn’t. But Mr. Robinson is the absolute real deal. I can say that without him playing a down yet. This jack of all trades was the talk of college football last year because of everything he did.  He’s explosive, he accelerates, his catching ability is off the charts, and his route running is something to behold. Robinson has already been seen lining up on the outside during Falcons training camp cooking defenders in 1 on 1 drills. While people may shy away because Desmond Ridder is the QB, I am not. Players make plays. And Robinson steps into a situation where he immediately becomes the best skill player on the offense. I can see a very similar season that Saquon had his rookie year. Just taking the league by storm. The running back room is crowded yes, but both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson played above their class last year, and the XFP/G suggests, they will both be regression candidates in 2023. Draft Robinson willingly, and if you’re in a keeper/dynasty league, you better be drafting him 1st overall.

5. Rhamondre Stevenson (Bye - Week 11) - This may shock some people to see Stevenson this high, but when you dig deep, you realize that Stevenson is just scratching the surface. The next sentence may be wild, but it needs to be said. Rhamondre Stevenson is the closest back we have right now to Christian McCaffrey. Yup. Let that sink in. You think I can’t back it up? Stevenson had a snap share in a Patriots offense of 65.8%, which was good for 9th in the NFL…as a rookie. He did not crack the Top 10 in rushing attempts, so he is still super fresh going into year two. He was third in the NFL in targets with 87. That number blew me away. Rhamondre Stevenson had 87 targets last season. And lastly, the man should see a spike in fantasy points next season, as his XFP outweighed his actual production last year. All this on top of the fact that he had a combo of defensive coordinator/special teams coach as his offensive coordinator. He now has a real OC in Bill O’Brien, so I fully expect Stevenson to see 100+ targets in the pass game and crack the Top 10 in rushing attempts. Damien Harris is gone; James Robinson is gone. There is no one to take carries. The Patriots best WR is Devante Parker. It’s the Rhamondre Stevenson show - hop on the train. All aboard.

6. Tony Pollard (Bye - Week 7) - We have calling for TP to get the feature role in the offense for a couple of years now. The time finally came at the latter half of last year, and Pollard delivered. He broke his leg in the playoffs, but is coming back fully healthy in time for training camp and is all systems go. Mike McCarthy is now calling the plays, so things will be a tad different, but Pollard remains the RB1 by a wide margin. Pollard ranked 4th in Exp Run% (Explosive Run %, which is 15+ yards) with an 8.8% clip. He ranked third in YACO (Yards after contact) at 73.6%. The great thing about Pollard is that Ezekiel Elliott had more carries than he did last year, so there is not a lot of tread on those tires. He also has good hands, so him catching balls out of the backfield is something that will transpire. Dalton Schultz is gone, so after Ceedee Lamb, there is an argument to be made that Dak’s next favorite target may be Pollard. This is a Cowboys offense that I believe has taken a step back in the pass game. The run game was always their bread and butter, and it gets a big jolt with TP taking over for Zeke. Pollard to the moon.

7. Nick Chubb (Bye - Week 5) - The best pure runner in the NFL resides in Cleveland. A literal wrecking ball, Nick Chubb is the type of running back that would do well in any era of football. He is a fierce downhill runner that can drag people yards at a time. He led the league last year with 93 MTF (Missed Tackles Forced). To put that in perspective, the next closest individual had 66. Chubb amassed 302 carries last year, which is a lot, but only accounted for 57% of the snaps in Cleveland. Kareem Hunt is gone. D’Ernest Johnson is gone. Who is taking snaps away from Chubb now? Chubb currently has the largest XFP regression rate of 55(!!) But I’m not buying it. He may even see an increase in the pass game. And for the first time in his career, he has a threat at the QB position, so all eyes won’t be on him. The Browns offensive line is a unit, and as long as they stay intact, Chubb will challenge for the rushing title yet again.

8. Josh Jacobs (Bye - Week 13) - For the first time in his career, Josh Jacobs was finally the focal point of the offense. He rewarded the Raiders with a monster season. A season that has yet to be rewarded by the opposite side. When we talk about usage, no one had more than Jacobs last year. With running backs, the name of the game is volume, and Jacobs had it by the thousands last season. Jacobs XFP/G was 17.8, which was good for 5th among all running backs. He ranked third in i5% (Carries inside the 5 yard line) at 85.7%. He was 2nd in Snap % at 75.2; second in rushing attempts at 340 and had the highest Rush Att % in the league at 79.4%, which was a 4% gap than the second highest player. We should even see a bigger volume in the pass game from Jacobs this year, which would catapult him a little bit too. But we have to temper our expectations. Last year was probably the best year he will ever have as a pro, so his 28.1 regression number is probably accurate. If I didn’t think Jacobs would regress, he would be number one on this list. The big question mark remains the contract and whether or not he will play on the franchise tag. If he does, Jacobs is a low-end fantasy RB1.

9. Derrick Henry (Bye - Week 7) - Is this the year that Derrick Henry slows down? A lot of people are suggesting it. A couple of things are true here. Is he older? Yes. Is the offense worse? Yes. Is the O-line worse? Yes. Did the Titans draft a young, spry running back who runs like the wind (more on him later). Yes. All these things are true. What’s also true is that Henry remains the best bruising running back in the league. He is still one of, if not the only back that gets better as the game goes on. It seems like every year we think Henry is out of gas, and every year he tells us to hold his beer. Last season, Henry ranked 5th in i5 at 75%, 3rd in MTF (64), 4th in YACO (73.5%) and had a 16.9 XFP/G, which remained in the Top 10 of fantasy running backs. He did all this while managing yet another year inside the Top 10 of Snap%, and ranking first and second respectively in Rushing Attempts (349) and Rush Att% (75.4). The man doesn’t stop. The XFP suggest he will regress this year, and I think that is possible with the fact that the offensive line is not what it used to be. Ben Jones is gone as is Taylor Lewan. And last season Henry ranked 5th in STUFF% (49.6). There is cause for concern. But the reward outweighs the risk here. You don’t want to be the one who passed on double digit touchdowns and a Top 10 fantasy finish yet again.

Tier III

10. Najee Harris (Bye - Week 6) - I am bullish on Harris this season. He absolutely took a step back last year as a sophomore, but the Steelers were in a transition year. The line was the worst it had been in a while, and their starting Quarterback was Mitch Trubisky. Fast forward a year and now Kenny Pickett has a handle on the QB spot (we think) and the offense just seems to be more mature. But make no mistake, Harris is still the focal point of this offense. Last year he ranked T-10th in the NFL amongst running backs in Snap% at 65.5, and was 5th overall in the amount of carries he had (272). He also ranked 5th in MTF amongst all running backs, so lets not forget Harris is a bruiser. Mike Tomlin is one of the smartest coaches in the NFL, and he knows that Harris is his best option right now. George Pickens is evolving, but it will take time for Pickett to really get in a groove. We spoke about him in our QB piece and give our thoughts, so be sure to check that out. One thing I want to see more from Harris is him in the passing game. Coming out of school he did have hands and we have yet to really see that in the NFL. Very Josh Jacobs-esque. As I’m writing this piece I can actually say of all the running backs this year, I think Harris has the highest ability to have that “Jacobs jump” from last year to this year. His XFP suggests that as well as according to the numbers, we should be able to see a significant increase in his production this year. Harris is a low-end RB1 for the year - expect to him to go towards the middle of Round 2 in most drafts.

11. Jonathan Taylor (Bye - Week 11) - Contingent that he plays, JT is still a very, very good running back. Just two short years ago, Taylor led the league in rushing and was being heralded as the best young back in the league. Now he’s “injured” and has asked for a trade from Indianapolis. Wherever he ends up, he will be a stud. Taylor’s XFP/G last year was 15.6, which ranked 5th in the entire league. He finished as RB33 last year. I am expecting a FULL return to form from Taylor as the numbers suggest he’s in for a massive year. He still ranked 7th in SNAP at 69.7% and 5th in Rush Att % at 63.8. The numbers are there. And with a rookie QB now in Anthony Richardson and a new HC in Shane Steichen, look for Taylor to be a horse this year. Again, assuming he plays. We all saw what Miles Sanders did last year with Philly, yes? After everyone, including myself, was throwing him in the dumpster. His season got him a new contract in Carolina and is the undisputed RB1 there with a rookie QB himself. Taylor will perform whether he is in Indy, Denver, Kansas City or anywhere else in the league. His game could be relevant anywhere.

12. Breece Hall (Bye - Week 7) - Last year I traded for Breece Hall to complete what I thought was a near perfect team. He was the one guy I was missing. The first game he played for me? The Broncos game. We all know how that went - it was the last game of the season for Hall as he suffered his ACL injury. Fast forward to now and Hall is slowly being back integrated into the Jets offense. There really is a lot to unpack here with this one. First, lets actually point out how good Breece Hall was last year. Before his injury, Hall ranked 2nd in Exp Run at 10%, only trailing James Cook. He was the front runner for ROTY before he got hurt. He did all this while Zach Wilson was playing Quarterback and playing behind a sub par offensive line. Enter Aaron Rodgers. That alone will make Hall better. But now let’s talk about the clouds hanging over him this year. Everyone has seen the numbers. Players coming off ACL injuries, especially running backs, tend to struggle mightily in their first year back. It’s the second year back where they seem to get their legs back under them. Saquon Barkley was the latest example. Two years ago he was miserable, and last year he had his best year since his rookie campaign. Second, the Jets have made it very clear that they are looking for another running back. They hosted Dalvin Cook and are reportedly in on Ezekiel Elliott as well. The Jets don’t want to rush Hall, and that is the right approach. Putting Hall as an RB1 is a long term investment, and me personally, I may stay away this year in a redraft. But if you are in a keeper/dynasty league and Hall is available, I would absolutely snatch him up. With him splitting carries in the beginning of the year and maybe getting more volume in the middle and end of the year, I still think he finishes in the Top 20.

Tier IV

13. Dameon Pierce (Bye - Week 7) - I believe this is where the RBs take a little bit of a dip. After Hall, a lot of these guys are mid rounders (4-6). We start here with Damien Pierce, as I think he is the best of this next bunch. I may be giving something away here, but I expect the Texans to be better than a lot of people think. I think they finish 2nd in the AFC South, and that is partly due to Pierce. This is another situation with a rookie QB (Stroud) and a rookie HC (Ryans), and even though Pierce kind of faded towards the end of last year, I am contributing that to the rookie wall. Pierce’s XFP/G last year was 14.7, which was within the Top 10 of running backs. We should see an improved performance from him last year. Here are a couple of other numbers that may surprise you about Pierce. For those of you that don’t remember, Dameon Pierce did not go down last season. He ranked 2nd in YACO at 75.3% and ranked 15th in SNAP at 63.7%. Now, this year the Texans added Devin Singletary to their RB room, which should give Pierce a little bit of a break. But the RB room for Houston was crowded last year and Pierce still stood out. If he improve his passing game skills a smidge, he is a very, very solid RB2.

14. Joe Mixon (Bye - Week 7) - Where is the notion that everyone on planet earth seems to think that Joe Mixon fell off a cliff? What if I told you that Mixon finished as RB11 last year. Yes, that is true. In a 12 team league, that’s low end RB1. In a 10 team league, he is top RB2. I truly don’t get the hate. Yes, he averaged less than 4 YPC last season. But let’s look at this guys usage from last season. Mixon ranked 12th in SNAP% at 65.4, and 6th in RushATT% at 62.3. His XFP/G last year was 18.8. That was good for second in the entire league behind only Austin Ekeler. Yes, Mixon had a higher XFP/G than Christian McCaffrey. You want pass game? Sure, I got that too. 70 targets last season for Mixon, which was good for 8th in the NFL across all running backs. Now, take into account he played 15 games last year, not 17. Mixon may not break off runs like Tony Pollard, or break tackles like Derrick Henry, or even catch passes like CMC, but the volume he gets is as good as anyone in the NFL. There were 4 games last year where Mixon finished in single digits for fantasy points, and two of those were in Week 1-3. No one is asking him to be a Top 5 running back, but he may be the most solid RB2 you can get your hands on.

15. Alvin Kamara (Bye - Week 11) - Another guy where I truly don’t understand the hate. As the guy in New Orleans who is still the undisputed RB1, Kamara did have a bit of a down year last year. But he thrives himself off the passing game, and this year the Saints upgraded in a big way by going from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr. He is reportedly been lining up on the outside in training camp alongside Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. And I love that idea. Kamara is the best when he is in space, and it seems like they are getting back to those routes. Kamara finished as RB16 last season where he was really the primary back for the entire year. If that seems low for him, its because it is. But Kamara always thrived when he had another back besides him aka the Mark Ingram days. It looks like the Saints went back to their roots - they signed Jamaal Williams from the Lions in the off-season. Williams will take the bulk, if not all of the goal line carries from Kamara, but Kamara will get the lions share of those. He is suspended for the first three weeks of the season, but once he returns I think he will be a solid play. He ranked 5th in targets last year with 73, and I think that number can go up this year actually. Kamara was on the field 69.7% of the time last season, which was good for 6th in the NFL. Will that number go down? Probably, but if the targets go up and the Saints get him in space more, I think he can be a solid RB2. I think he RB1 days are over for Kamara though.

16. Travis Etienne Jr. (Bye - Week 9) - Etienne jumped off the page last year for the Jaguars as he became the latest in a line of Jags running backs to be successful. Fred Taylor, MJD, Leonard Fournette, and now ETN. He was like a rocket last year for Jacksonville and he finished the year as RB17. His XFP/G last year was 12.8, which may seem low, but over a 17 game stretch that comes out to 217.6 over the course of the year. We are expected to see a slight aggression on him this year, but with the arrival of Tank Bigsby and Calvin Ridley, I am not 100% that will be the case. Bigsby will definitely take carries away from Etienne, but its not going to be as much as you think. Doug Pederson recently had a press conference where he stated that Etienne could have 1,600-1,700 yards on the ground this season. I think that’s a stretch, but can I see 1,400? Maybe. Etienne’s SNAP% was at 59.4, but he did not rank inside the Top 10 for Rushing attempts and Rush Att%. I don’t think that’s concerning, but it just means I don’t expect a huge, huge uptick from ETN. He finished as RB17, and that’s a comfortable RB2 spot. I wouldn’t differ from that this year.

17. Aaron Jones (Bye - Week 6) - The conundrum of Aaron Jones continues to be a sphinx. Jones was maybe the most volatile back last year as there were games where he can score 30 points, or he can score 5. The addition of AJ Dillon has severely hampered what Aaron Jones can do. And it’s quite maddening, because when Jones gets an opportunity he can be one of the top 12 backs in the league. He again averaged more than 5 YPC, which he has done 4/6 seasons. He ranked 7th in targets with 72, and ranked 20th in SNAP at a 58% clip. AJ Dillon vultures away some touchdowns from Jones, and that obviously hurts his value. Last season, he had the 3rd worst TD Rate amongst all running backs at .9% (yes, less than 1%). Jones only had 2 rushing touchdowns last year as opposed to 5 receiving touchdowns. As long as Dillon is there, the rushing touchdown number will be limited. Jones is fantasy RB2 relevant because of his pass catching ability. He caught 59 passes last year for 395 yards. That’s almost 100 points alone on just receiving yards. He also did run for 1,100 yards last year. So the ability is there. And I will always think Aaron Jones can do more than he is asked to do, but as long as Dillon is there, Jones is an RB2.

18. D’Andre Swift (Bye - Week 10) - Swift is now in Philadelphia where I think his situation improves greatly. In Detroit, he was hampered with the fact that they didn’t trust him to run the ball with enough efficiency. Jamaal Williams ranked inside the Top 10 in rushing attempts last year. Swift only had 99 carries throughout all of 2022. And he still came in as RB21. That’s actually fascinating when you break it down. Swift finished with the second worst i5 at 11.8%, but finished 10th in RB targets at 67. He is now in Philadelphia, and with Sanders now in Carolina, there really isn’t a bruising back to stop him. Kenneth Gainwell is there, and we can get to him later, but I think for the first time in his career, Swift should see the bulk of the carries during a season, assuming he stays healthy. We all saw what the Eagles were able to do with Sanders last year, and I think Swift is a better runner than Sanders. He offers the ability to bust runs open while also giving Jalen Hurts a legitimate passing option at running back.

19. Jahmyrr Gibbs (Bye - Week 9) - One of the most fascinating draft picks in the 2023 draft. When the Lions selected Gibbs, they still had the aforementioned Swift, but traded him a couple of days later. During our draft review process, Gibbs came in as my RB2 behind Bijan Robinson, and I voiced that he was an elite pass catching back. He has since been lining up in the backfield and on the outside for the Lions. With the new and improved passing game from Detroit, Gibbs potential is sky high. They also signed David Montgomery to put a veteran in the room, which is smart, but Gibbs is the more talented of the two. They may split carries in the beginning, but I think as the season goes on, Gibbs will see more and more touches. Think Austin Ekeler lite when you think of Jahmyrr Gibbs. OC Ben Johnson did excellent with Swift and Williams last year, and now he has a new tandem with Gibbs and Montgomery. In keeper/dynasty leagues, Gibbs has back end Round 1 value.

20. Javonte Williams (Bye - Week 9) - People forget about Williams last year. He was on an absolute tear before he got hurt. But now he is practicing, and Sean Payton and the Broncos players are raving about how good he looks. I get it, they are supposed to do that. But if Williams is ready for the regular season, then he is absolutely worthy of a mid round pick in fantasy. All suggestions are that players coming off these injuries struggle in their first year, and I don’t think that Williams is immune from that. I would suggest making him a weekly flex option to start the year. But as the year goes on, Williams will be better. And if you’re in a keep/dynasty league, the long term investment is worth. When you’re in the hunt for a playoff spot in November for fantasy, and you’re counting your lucky stars you drafted Javonte Williams, you’ll know who to thank.

21. Miles Sanders (Bye - Week 7) - Sanders got paid this off-season, and now he is in Carolina with a rookie QB (Young) and a new HC in Frank Reich. It seemed like Sanders unlocked another gear last season for the Eagles. For the first time in his career he ran for over 1,000 yards (1,269) and had a 4.9 YPC. A couple of things to note here though about Sanders that may be used against him. He was the worst RB in the league when it came to YACO last year (52.6%) and his XFP/G was 12, which tracks him as a regression candidate for 2023. He also doesn’t catch the ball. He was only targeted 26 times during the season last year and caught 20 passes. He really is a run only running back and when you’re as small as Sanders, you need that big burst to get you going. I have Sanders as an RB2 because he’s the only running back in the room with a real chance to make a change. Reich will lean on him heavily at the beginning of the season to get things going. Running backs are always a rookie QB’s best friend.

22. James Cook (Bye - Week 13) - This is the second running back I’m super high on this year. Cook has a lot of numbers that point the arrow up for him this year. Right now he is known as the younger brother of Dalvin Cook, but after this year I think that the wrap around him will be very different. Cook ranked as the best back in the NFL when it came to EXP Run% (12.4). And Cook should be very, very….very fresh going into 2023. Cook ranked 4th worst in Rush ATT % (20.7%) and was dead last among all qualifying running backs in SNAP (24.9%). Last year, the Bills had Devin Singletary carry most of the load for Buffalo, and now Damien Harris is with Cook. Harris lost his job last year to Rhamondre Stevenson in New England, and even if these two split carries in the beginning of the year, the Bills will realize that the upside is with Cook. His ability in the pass game is unquestioned, and he can finally be the answer to the Bills long awaited running back woes we have been discussing for years.

Tier V

23. James Conner (Bye - Week 14) - The darling of the 2021 fantasy season, James Conner crashed back to earth in 2022. If you look at Conner’s numbers from 2021-2022, they won’t seem different, except for one stat; touchdowns. He dipped from 15 in 2021 to 7 in 2022. That was the big outlier. But there is some reason for optimism here. You guessed it - volume. Conner is one of few three down backs left in the NFL, and it showed in 2022. Conner ranked 5th in SNAP% at 71.3 and 10th in RushATT% at 54.6. His XFP/G came in at 15, which over a 17 game clip comes in at 255 fantasy points. Last year Conner finished as RB19 at 201.3 fantasy points in only 13 games. His fantasy production lies probably somewhere in the middle. Don’t get me wrong, the Cardinals will be bad, but Conner will get his. He is one of the safest bets as a low end RB2 in fantasy this year.

24. Alexander Mattison (Bye - Week 13) - Over at PSP, John has been clamoring for two years now that Mattison can do what Dalvin Cook was doing. Now he will get his chance. Mattison is the undisputed number one back in the room for 2023, and that is an interesting concept. Mattison looked spry and was able to catch the ball coming out of the backfield last year. I think expecting Dalvin Cook numbers are a little bit of a tall order as he doesn’t have the hands that Cook has. I do believe, however, that he can be just as effective as a runner as Cook was. Mattison ranked 2nd in TD Rate last year among all RBs (6.8%) and saw the 3rd worst i5 (14.3%). That i5 is bound to go up with no Cook, while the TD rate shows his explosiveness in the open field. The Vikings offensive line has been so-so for a couple of years now, but the left side of line with Darrisaw has been pretty solid. And it seems every time Cook or Pattison got loose last year it was on the left side. The projections are calling for Mattison to run for almost 1,000 yards. I can see that if he stays healthy. But his lower ceiling in the receiving department caps his offensive production from a fantasy perspective. I have Mattison as a low end RB2, high end flex option on a week to week basis, but with a higher ceiling than most RB2 players.

25. Rachaad White - (Bye - Week 5) - White is another player that’s hard to pinpoint. On one hand, the Buccaneers have fallen far from grace from where they were in 2020. Todd Bowles is one of the worst HC in the NFL, they fired Byron Leftwich (wrongly), their QB competition is between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, and their defense seems old. It probably won’t be a good year for Tampa. And on top of all that, White was disappointing last season. White was worst running back in the NFL at TD Rate (.8%). However, White’s XFP/G last season was 9.1, which averaged out to the fact that we should see an improvement in 2023. Consider me a skeptic. I’m a big proponent of grabbing players on good teams if they aren’t superstars, and White falls into that category. Do I think he can perform? Yes, absolutely. Am I wait and see on him, as in, I’ll do it next season. Yes, absolutely.

26. Jamaal Williams (Bye - Week 11) - Everyone reading this right now thinks that Jamaal Williams will have the James Conner regression tag did last season. I mentioned Conner above at 22 to see what I think of his season last year. Let me remind people of a couple of things here. Jamaal Williams split carries with Aaron Jones in Green Bay. He split carries with D’Andre Swift last season in Detroit. What do you think he’s going to do this year? And many, including myself, think Jones and Swift are better backs than Williams. But the emotional hard knocks hero from 2022 has an aura around him where players seem to navigate to him and coaches seem to love him. He has been a goal line back his entire career, and don’t expect that to change in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara’s best seasons were when he was part of a two headed monster. The Saints are trying to re-create that. Will Williams score 18 touchdowns again this year? You can’t bank on that, so lets say no. Which is why I have him at 25 and not 12. That’s where Williams finished last year - RB12. That’s not sustainable. But is he a possible flex play every week? Sure, without a doubt. He won’t do a lot in the pass game, but he can score and will get some serious rushing yards. A lot of pundits and experts are down on him this year, and if the Saints end up signing Kareem Hunt, I will admit that will plummet him down my charts. But for now, 25 seems like a good spot.

27. Cam Akers (Bye - Week 10) - Talk about a question mark. When Akers was drafted, he was thought of as a “steal” and the next great Rams running back. Well, 2022 saw him in the doghouse up until December, and then the Rams came to their senses and unleashes him. He had a good December. He scored, made some catches, etc. But I don’t trust Sean McVay. Akers was the only viable option he had down the stretch last year when the Rams were already out of it. Matthew Stafford is back and presumably healthy. Cooper Kupp is back and presumably healthy. Another year of Higbee. McVay loves throwing the ball. Especially to Cooper Kupp. It’s just hard to imagine a world where the Rams and this staff run the ball in a consistent manner. They may be playing from behind a lot as well, so who knows. They have to run the ball yes, and Akers is number one on the depth chart. But does anyone remember Kyren Williams from last year? Yup, I thought so. Flex play for Akers at best.

28. Kenneth Walker III (Bye - Week 5) - I can’t begin to explain to you how out I am on Kenneth Walker this season. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks just kinda burn these backs after they have successful seasons - Rashaad Penny being the latest one. And the numbers suggest Walker is due for a real regression season. Kenneth Walker, unbelievable, got 100% of the carries for the Seahawks inside the 5 yard line last season. 100%. I’ll say it again. 100%. So that means that if Walker doesn’t get one carry inside the 5 this year, then that’s not as many as last year. Anddddddd, the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonett. Walker was 2nd in Stuff% at 55.3, only trailing James Robinson. Walker was 2nd worst in YACO at 53.1%. His XFP/G was 12.3, which suggests a serious regression this year. Should I go on? He was 19th in SNAP at 58.3 last season, which was lower than I thought. It’s not that I don’t like Walker, it’s just I don’t like the situation he is currently in.

29. Isaiah Pacheco (Bye - Week 10) - I really liked what I saw from Pacheco last season. He ran with violence and proved able to carry the load running the ball, something that CEH was never able to do. He found himself in a great situation in Kansas City (obviously), but that also means the man is severely limited when it comes to fantasy. The Chiefs are a pass first offense, and that means Pacheco will always be the backup option. He shined last year on the Chad Henne drive in the playoff game against Jacksonville after ripping off a near 60 yard run. Pacheco was great last year avoiding contact as he ranked 4th in Stuff rate (37.1%), but he also was in the bottom ten in targets (13). He doesn’t catch the ball. He’s a pure runner for the Chiefs. And as long as McKinnon stays there, Pacheco will be an afterthought in the passing game. He can be a viable flex play because he’s a starting running back, but he is definitely not a week to week starter.

30. JK Dobbins (Bye - Week 13) - People continuously love Dobbins because of what he could do. I don’t love Dobbins because of what he hasn’t been able to do - stay on the field. Listen, injuries are a part of the game, I get it. And Dobbins isn’t trying to get hurt. But unfortunately, that is the story of his career so far. He’s another guy that doesn’t really catch the ball out of the backfield. And when you’re the number one running back on a team, and you’re still the secondary option to run the football, that doesn’t bode well for fantasy. You wouldn’t find one Ravens fan that would rather have Dobbins run the ball in open space than Lamar. And for the first time in forever (my Frozen line), the Ravens have what it seems like legitimate receivers on the outside. Odell, Zay, Mark, and Rashod. Not to mention Gus Edwards is the permanent shadow of Dobbins, and the Ravens recently signed Kenyan Drake. Dobbins will play if he’s healthy, but he is a matchup play for you at best.

31. David Montgomery (Bye - Week 9) - People always seem to forget about Montgomery. I also feel like we have been waiting for Monty to really take that next step and become that elite back. It just….never happened. He is what he is now. The Lions brought him in from Chicago to compliment Jahmyrr Gibbs, and Montgomery will do that. But make no mistake, Gibbs is the future in Detroit. I can definitely see a scenario where you’re dropping Montgomery by Week 10 because he’s getting 20% of the carries for Detroit - because Gibbs has been that good. Listen, on the plays where Gibbs is lining up on the outside, which I think is being blown out of proportion a little, Montgomery will be in the backfield. Is he a good running back? Yes. Will he have some good games? Yes. Is his time of being “the guy” over? Also, yes. He’s probably the number one handcuff in the NFL right now in terms of fantasy - so he’s definitely worth a late round pick. But I wouldn’t expect much from him on a week to week basis.

32. Antonio Gibson (Bye - Week 14) - The last of the starting backs in the NFL. Gibson was downright atrocious last year for an offense that was abysmal. My adjectives are getting better. But the Commanders were wonky from the start. With the whole Brian Robinson thing to the Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke musical chairs, it just never worked out. And Gibson is only a year removed from having a really good season. The XFP/G suggests that he is in for the biggest jump among fantasy running backs. It was 13.1, which is really high. But very similar to Rachaad White, I’m not buying it. This offense was putrid last year, and there is an argument to be made they went backwards. We don’t know yet, but its possible. I also hate the fact that Robinson is still there and that Ron Rivera can make a change at a moments notice. It just screams fantasy headache.

Tier VI

33. De’Von Achane (Bye - Week 10) - My sleeper running back for the season. I absolutely loved what I saw from Achane coming out of Texas A&M. The kid is a serious burner and has the skills to do it at the next level. A little small, but that doesn’t matter as much in today’s NFL as it used to. And the good thing here is that the Dolphins don’t have a bonafide stud at the position. Yes, they have Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Myles Gaskin, but none of those guys have taken the job by storm. Mostert can’t stay healthy, and Wilson is ok. But Achane has that second gear that fits in perfectly with what Miami wants to work with - speed. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane. Get used to it.

34. AJ Dillon (Bye - Week 6) - The “other” back in Green Bay has been a mainstay for a couple of years now. Dillon is the goal line back in Green Bay and gets a ton of touchdowns, which is the main part of his fantasy value. His XFP/G last year was actually 10.8, which is quite high considering he is really touchdown dependent. He has better speed than you think, and can actually catch the ball but doesn’t that much because of Aaron Jones. Dillon will have spurts where he is the guy, but Green Bay really does split them pretty evenly. His lack of catching production plummets him though. He is 100% worth a draft pick because of his touchdown rate and his carries inside the red zone. At the very worst, he’s a handcuff, and if by chance Jones gets hurt and needs to miss time, Dillon immediately becomes an RB2.

35. Jeff Wilson (Bye - Week 10) - This is the best veteran back in Miami currently. Down the stretch the Dolphins leaned on Wilson, especially when Tua was missing games. Wilson’s XFP/G last season was 10.4, which suggests a slight aggression for the running back. The room is crowded though, especially with the aforementioned Achane getting some hype. I can definitely see a scenario where Wilson is RB1 going into the season and getting most of the carries. Based off that alone he is worthy of being drafted. But Miami is a pass first offense and with Hill and Waddle, they will do it consistently. Think of the Miami running situation similar to that of Buffalo and Kansas City. The running game is a clear secondary. But with the rookie there now, it limits Wilson even more.

36. Khalil Herbert (Bye - Week 13) - We are at RB36 and just now mentioning the first Bears running back. That should tell you all you need to know about the Bears offensive line situation. The main runner in Chicago is Justin Fields - make no mistake about that. But there are some things about Herbert that I do like. Every time he got an opportunity last season, he seemed to capitalize on it. He ranked 5th in STUFF at 38%, which suggests he’s good at avoiding defenders at the LOS. He doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield though as he only had 11 targets all of last season. That was good for 3rd worst in the NFL. The Bears also drafted Roschon Johnson out of Texas in the 4th round, so now there is someone breathing down Herberts neck. I think the Bears will use the ever popular two RB system, and with Herbert being the second option in the run game, it’s unlikely he will have week to week value. Worth a late round draft pick as he will be playing every week.

37. Kenneth Gainwell (Bye - Week 10) - There really is a lot to like about Gainwell. He’s never going to be a 3 down back in the league, but he provides a spark similar to an Eagles player that was there for a while - Darren Sproles. And Sproles was a very viable fantasy option for a lot of years. The stats back up that Gainwell can be even more explosive for Philly this season. He ranked 1st in the NFL in TD Rate (7.5%), almost a full percent higher than the 2nd place player (Mattison) and was 2nd in the NFL in STUFF rate (34%). He’s not going to break a lot of tackles (2nd worst in YACO) and won’t receive the ball on the goal line, as he finished 4th worst in i5 (15.6%). The Eagles brought in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny this season to replace Miles Sanders. One can argue that Penny is the best pure runner of the three, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy. Gainwell will have to compete with Swift for some of the catches, but he remains a healthy bench option in fantasy with his explosiveness and ability to make plays. The Eagles always do a good job of getting their skill players in space.

38. Tank Bigsby (Bye - Week 9) - The 4th rookie running back on the rankings, Bigsby provides something the Jaguars didn’t have last year - a punisher. Travis Etienne is more of a runner who is good in the zone scheme and outside the numbers while Bigsby can get through the gaps. Coming out of Auburn, Bigsby was able to provide big play ability with an underrated amount of speed. He won’t get as many carries as people are suggesting, but he will have ample opportunity. He is the clear number two back in Jacksonville. Expect him to get some carries in short yardage situations and goal line spots. The Duval county faithful are hoping Bigsby can be the thunder to ETN’s lightning.

39. Cordarelle Patterson (Bye - Week 11) - Both Patterson and Allgeier (who we will speak about) will suffer greatly from the arrival of Bijan Robinson. He is now the closest new toy to a three down back we have in this league. But I believe the arrival of Bijan hurts Allgeier more than it hurts Patterson. The Falcons gadget player is just that - a gadget, and he can still be used in a variety of ways. Patterson ranked 3rd in STUFF last year at a clip of 36.8%, so he was still making people miss at an elite rate. Arthur Smith will make sure that he is being used every week, although it will be more sparingly. Think of Patterson this year the way you think of Taysom Hill, but better. If you are in a league where you get punts on returns, Patterson is more valuable than I have him here at 39; he would be more in the upper 30s. However, where last year he was a weekly starter, it is anything but this year.

40. Brian Robinson (Bye - Week 14) - After a serious injury last season with a gun shot wound to the leg, Brian Robinson’s story lifted everyone up. He came back mere weeks after being shot, and he actually performed quite serviceably. Putting him at 40 really comes down to the fact that it can be the Robinson or Gibson show from week to week. With that unknown factor, it is hard to really put Robinson in a solid place. He is also non-existent in the pass game as he only garnered 12 targets last season. I see the projection of 21 catches and I laugh at that because that means he would have to be targeted about 28-30 times. No shot.

41. Zach Charbonnet - (Bye - Week 5) - The rookie out of UCLA found himself in a precarious spot in Seattle. A lot of people had Charbo as a second round selection, but people were very surprised when they saw it was the Seahawks who required his services. The rookie will get an opportunity to perform, but if Kenneth Walker gets off to a good start, its hard to imagine a scenario with Charbonnet gets some playing time. However, the Seahawks drafted him for a reason. During our draft season, I mentioned that he was the only other three down back in the draft outside of Robinson, and he has some undervalued speed. Maybe the Seahawks have bigger plans for him than we assume.

42. Jerick McKinnon (Bye - Week 10) - This is my biggest regression candidate of the 2023 season. McKinnon lived a CHARMED life last year with the amount of touchdowns he scored. I am telling you there is no way that he repeats that again this year. The Chiefs have added the following: Rashee Rice, 2nd round WR out of SMU. They also are getting a full season of Kadarius Toney and a more seasoned Skyy Moore this season. The options on players for Mahomes will be more than it was last year, and I think McKinnon may get left out in the dust. Pacheco has a hold on the running game with the Chiefs also not yet giving up on former first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire (although they should). McKinnon’s value sits alone in the passing game. And even with all the touchdowns he score last year, he still finished 5th worst in TD Rate (1.4%) and 4th worst in STUFF rate (51.4%). I just don’t see it this year.

43. Devin Singletary (Bye - Week 7) - Coming off a mildly successful season, Singletary bolted from Buffalo and joined Houston to pair up with Damien Pierce. He never really amounted to the running back some people thought he could be in Buffalo, but they may have had to do with the scheme the Bills ran with Brian Daboll. In Houston though, his role is clear. He is the backup to Pierce. He will get opportunities during the game (8-10 carries per game), but with the lack of production he provides in the pass game, its hard to see him make a real impact over the course of the season. Especially going from All-Pro Josh Allen to rookie CJ Stroud.

44. Michael Carter (Bye - Week 7) - Carter has always been an interesting figure. A ton of people thought he would take the handle on the job in NY as he came out of school the same year as college teammate Javonte Williams. While Williams established himself in Denver, it never came that easy for Carter. And then with the emergence of Breece Hall last year, that left Carter in the background. Carter will get run early in the season as they Jets will ease Hall back from his ACL injury, but once Hall is a full go, don’t expect Carter to be on the field that much. He offers little in the passing game, and even though he ranked 5th in YACO last season (71.9%), if the Jets sign one of Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott, Carter will be left off my rankings altogether, as he may even be a cut candidate.

Tier VII

45. Damien Harris (Bye - Week 13) - The job in Buffalo should belong to James Cook. But I can see a scenario where Damien Harris gets some carries because he’s Damien Harris. He was severely outplayed by Stevenson last year in New England which spelled his departure. But he goes from a team that loved to run the football to a team that…well, doesn’t. And James Cook offers more in the pass game. I would be really surprised if Harris is a viable fantasy option this season.

46. Roschon Johnson (Bye - Week 13) - Another sneaky rookie that can make an impact this season. Johnson didn’t get the headlines in college because he played behind Bijan Robinson, but Johnson was good in his own right. He goes to a really good situation in Chicago where he can make an impact right away. We have seen a lot of scenarios in the past where Day 3 running backs may a play for the starting running back gig. In redrafts, you can get Johnson late late, but in keepers/dynasty, I would absolutely keep an eye on him in the mid rounds.

47. Tyler Allgeier (Bye - Week 11) - Allgeier had a really nice season last year. And then the Falcons went ahead and took Bijan 8th overall. That essentially spelled the end for Allgeier as the primary runner for Atlanta. He will be a nice complimentary back for the Falcons, but with the versatility of Cordarelle Patterson and the allure of Bijan Robinson, that doesn’t leave much room for Allgeier.

48. Deuce Vaughn (Bye - Week 7) - This guy is going to surprise. He is already turning heads at camp in Dallas, and he has the opportunity to be a real change of pace back for the Cowboys. He is really, really small. Almost too small. But he is dynamic. Pollard is the obvious starter in the lone star state, but Vaughn has an opportunity to cement himself as the RB2 there. And we know in today’s NFL, there is a place for RB2’s who have skill.

49. Rashaad Penny (Bye - Week 10) - How far Rashaad Penny has fallen. Once a promising back for the Seattle Seahawks, injuries derailed his career there. He is trying to revive it in Philadelphia. While that may be the actual best place to do it, he has to compete with two guys who are both younger and more athletic. Penny will be the guy for the short yardage opportunities and may even get some carries in the red zone, but he has absolutely zero value in the passing game and won’t be on the field in normal down and distances. He is also one more injury from finding himself on the street.

50. Elijah Mitchell (Bye - 9) - I would have Mitchell way higher if he was able to stay healthy. He is a good runner, and he can make people miss, but its gonna be hard to see him get consistent playing time with CMC now in SF for a full season. CMC does have a robust injury history though, so if he does get hurt, Mitchell’s stock goes way, way up.

51. Samaje Perine (Bye - Week 9) - People forget how useful Perine was last year in Cincinnati. He scored some big touchdowns for those boys. He is now in Denver with Sean Payton, Russell Wilson and the crew and he has the same exact role he had last year. Last season Perine came in at RB35, so I dipped him some because the offense in Cincinnati is better than it is in Denver. And if Williams is as healthy as they say he is, he may even get less opportunities than he did in Cincy.

52. Tyjae Spears (Bye - Week 7) - I loved Spears coming out of Tulane. His speed is insane and he’s got really good hands. He is the perfect compliment to Derrick Henry. He had a pre-existing injury before coming into the NFL and that is something to watch, but if Spears gets in open space, good luck. With the amount of time Henry was on the field last year (66.8%) and the him receiving the most rushing attempts in the NFL (349), it seems like Spears only value will be in the passing game. With a sub-par passing attack, its hard to see a real impact that he can make, at least for this year.

53. Gus Edwards (Bye - 13) - The Staten Island native has been a staple in Baltimore for some time now, and every time we think he’s going to be the “guy” he ends up getting hurt. He is a clear depth piece with the Ravens, and while he reps SI really well, he’s a streamer at best in fantasy.

54. Raheem Mostert (Bye - Week 10) - With the arrival of Jeff Wilson last season and the drafting of De’Von Achane this year, I think Mostert gets buried on the depth chart. Both guys just mentioned offer more than he does, and neither guy has a large injury history that Mostert has. It’s unfortunate, because that season in San Francisco was really something to behold. But he got injured that year too. I think Mostert is a surprise cut candidate if Achane really grabs a hold of the role.

55. Evan Hull (Bye - Week 11) - I am ending the RB list with 3 rookies. Hull is in Indianapolis where the injury to Zach Moss has opened the door for him to walk through as the RB2. If Jonathan Taylor actually holds out, then Hull becomes the surprise RB1 there. Having a rookie coach, rookie QB and rookie RB in Week 1 is not an ideal situation.

56. Sean Tucker (Bye - Week 5) - I wanted to throw the Syracuse rookie in here because when I watched his tape, I thought there was something there. Earlier, I spoke about my skepticism on Rachaad White. If White struggles, Tucker can take charge of the position there. I like him enough where he won’t be drafted, but you can keep an eye on him throughout the year and then pounce when no one is looking. You may be surprised at how much he plays during the year.

57. Kendre Miller (Bye - Week 11) -  The 11th(!!) and final rookie on our fantasy rankings, Miller has talent. Its going to be hard for him to get on the field though between Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and possibly Kareem Hunt. If Hunt doesn’t come to the big easy, then Miller has some stash value. Miller can be drafted in dynasty leagues towards the end, as I think this may be the last couple of seasons that Kamara is in New Orleans.