The Pressure is On…

As the off-season winds to a close every year, many experts, analysts, podcasters (ahem) and the laymen take a real look at the landscape of the National Football League. When September rolls around, you always have that one friend who says “I didn’t know “X” was now in “X”.” It’s too much movement. I said it to myself on Thursday Night after I got home from work. “When did Allen Robinson sign with the Giants” as he’s playing into the 2nd half to try and make the team. It’s just natural to do that. We have the Free Agent frenzy, the NFL Draft, coaches firings and hirings. So. Much. Movement. And that’s great. What we normally don’t discuss is the teams, players and coaches that stay put. And they stay put for a reason. Their owners and front office leaders believe they are the right people in place.

The internal clock that begins in the heads of those people (as well as the fans) ticks louder and louder as the games, weeks and years go by. There comes a point where the pressure becomes too much, and then its either sink or swim. That’s what leads to the frenzy. The movement. The craziness. 2024 is no different. You look around the league about 20 days before the Chiefs and Ravens kick off, and you wonder which players are under the most pressure this year. Either viewed by themselves, their fanbases, or the league in general. Same for teams. Same for coaches. The list is endless, and depending on who you ask, can change. I remember on ESPN as a kid they would do “fact or fiction” or the “hot seat” which were always great. Today I’ll do something similar. Division by division, I’ll give you a player, team or coach that is “feeling the heat” in 24, and how whatever outcomes lies ahead may lead to a stark difference this time next year.

AFC East

1. Sean McDermott - Again, depending on who you ask this can change. Many, many people would say the team in general, or Josh Allen. But I’m sticking with McDermott here. And yes, the Bills won the AFC East again in 2023. But it’s not about that for this team anymore. This team can’t get past the Chiefs. Simple as that. Buffalo said goodbye to the likes of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Jordan Poyer this season. In January, if the Bills miss the playoffs because they didn’t have enough “playmakers” I don’t think people will be blaming Josh Allen. McDermott needs to make a move here. Where there is a will, there is a way. I don’t think his seat is particularly “hot”, but I think an AFC Championship appearance would really put this franchise in the place of “ok, we made the right moves.” However, if this team misses the playoffs, some eyebrows could be raised.

Heat Meter - 4

2. New York Jets - Yeah, this one is the whole unit. The apologists will tell you that the team hasn’t really played together yet and you need to let them gel. The New York media will tell you that this team went 7-10 last year while Aaron Rodgers played four famous snaps. Here’s the skinny: A-Rod is 40 years old. That’s right. Turning 41 in December. The Jets are now above the league average in roster age. We all know they haven’t made the playoffs since 2013, the longest drought in the NFL. Let’s make one thing clear: If the Jets miss the playoffs again, everyone is gone. Saleh, Douglas, Rodgers (probably) and a whole slew of players. Someone will come in and press the reset button. If they make the playoffs and bow out in the first round, Saleh and Douglas get fired. The players stay and a new coach comes to get one more shot at getting over the hump. Make the AFC Title game, everyone stays. There may not be more pressure on a team in the NFL (the other lies in the Heart of Dixie) to perform. There are a ton of personalities on this team, and they all like to speak. Some people like that. Some people don’t. But one thing is certain. The Jets need to win.

Heat Meter - 10

3. Tua Tagovailoa (Performing in December/January) - Tua just got the big deal. 53 million. And he’s letting people know at camp. Good for him. With all the concussions he dealt with in 2022, he was healthy in 23 and played well. The reality is also this. Since he’s been in the league, he and the Dolphins have absolutely, unequivocally sucked in December and January. The Dolphins, who were leading the AFC East all year last season, struggled down the stretch to the tune of a 3-4 record and lost the division in the last week of the season to the Bills. Which in turn, granted them a travel date to Kansas City to play the Chiefs on one of the coldest days in recorded history. They lost. It wasn’t close. In 2022, yes, Tua was hurt. The concussions sucked. But being on the field is part of it. He wasn’t. Miami is 4-10 in December and January in 22’ and 23’. That’s not going to cut it. This is a team who hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000. Going on 25 years now. No one will bat an eye on this team as they wax teams they should, and lose to teams they should. Pay attention in December.

Heat Meter - 6

NFC East

4. Mike McCarthy - This is simple. If the Cowboys don’t make a serious run this season, McCarthy is cooked. The Cowboys have been “put up or shut up” for years now. And if you listen to our show, we poke fun at the yearly Dallas wheel that goes round and round every year ending with “disappointing ending” in the playoffs. This year there is some extra spice as Dak Prescott, the MVP runner up in 2023, is playing on an expiring contract. There is no telling what happens if Dallas bows out in the wild card round again, or heaven forbid, miss the playoffs!

Heat Meter - 10

5. Eagles Offense - All the pieces are there. But if you watched the Eagles in 2023, you know that something was just off. Hurts wasn’t having fun. Sirianni wasn’t himself. And it culminated with an embarrassing loss to the Baker Mayfield led Bucs in the wild card round. So 2024 is afoot and the birds are two years removed from coming within minutes of taking out the Chiefs for their second Super Bowl victory. Now, I think, the pressure is on this offense. They added Saquon Barkley. Another year of DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown. Dallas Geodert is healthy. Hurts and the offense need to do damage. Specifically, the passing attack. A lot of people think Hurts isn’t a great passer, and personally, I think the jury is still out. It will be interesting watching Philadelphia this year.

Heat Meter - 5

AFC North

6. Lamar Jackson AND John Harbaugh - I mean, you can read the Bills one. Its the same deal, except Baltimore has the pieces. Hell, they added Derrick Henry. Lamar won his 2nd MVP in 2023. Baltimore HOSTED the AFC Championship. They still couldn’t beat Mahomes. Is there “pressure” on the Ravens to win a Super Bowl. Some may say no. I say yes. This is potentially Baltimore’s best shot at the crown. Mahomes isn’t going away. He’s here for another 10-12 years. Deal with it. I don’t think people are getting fired, but at what point do you realize that you may need to change something to get over the hump?

Heat Meter - 3

7. All other AFC North Starting QBs - Let’s make this simple. Joe Burrow needs to stay healthy. If he doesn’t and misses significant time again, the Bengals have to look themselves in the mirror and say “what are we doing here”. When Burrow is healthy, he’s unbelievable. But availability is key. And Burrow has basically missed two of the past three years. In what some people believe is the worst trade of all time, Russell Wilson was removed after a year in Denver and signed with Pittsburgh. He’s starting for Mike Tomlin. He also has Justin Fields behind him. The leash is short. Wilson wasn’t statistically bad in 2023, but if you watched him every play, it was underwhelming. This year will prove if Russ can still cook. In Cleveland, in what some people believe is the worst trade of all time, DeShaun Watson has had a full off-season for the first time since I think Avengers: Endgame came out? Literally. In what we’ve seen from Watson in a Browns uniform has been dreadful. Hasn’t been the same guy he was in Houston. This is the year for Watson to make amends. If we get more of the same, Watson won’t have a starting job anywhere in 2025.

Heat Meter - 8

NFC North

8. Matt Eberflus - Consider me a guy that doesn’t think Eberflus should be coaching this team in 2024. And no, Hard Knocks won’t change that. The current regime in Chicago couldn’t develop Justin Fields. No matter what you think of Fields, that’s on Poles, Eberflus and Getsy. Getsy is in Las Vegas now (someone had to get the chop) and Shane Waldron is in. Now, Caleb Williams is a much better prospect than Justin Fields. But with that, expectations are higher. Fans in Chicago are expecting the Bears to make the playoffs.I think Eberflus has the hottest seat to start 2024. If the Bears get off to an Urban Meyer-esque start like Meyer did in Jacksonville in 2021, with Trevor Lawrence in his rookie year, then Eberflus will see the door so fast. Chicago has loaded up, and they are now in a way tougher division than what presented itself two years ago. That’s a factor, but the coaching staff in Chicago needs to turn it around, and do so quickly.

Heat Meter - 9

AFC South

9. Press Taylor - I could’ve put Doug Pederson here. I could’ve put Trevor Lawrence here. I’m not going to go into all the metrics in where Lawrence was hampered last season due to his receiving core and injuries (do that yourself). All I can tell is that Jaguar fans currently hate Press Taylor. The playcylling last year for a team that seemingly had weapons all over was abysmal. It went so far as that it was widely reported that Shad Khan had a meeting with Doug Pederson in the off-season to ask him to call plays again in 2024. Pederson, who had the SAME ISSUE in Philadelphia, hasn’t “decided” on who was calling plays in 2024. Taylor called plays on Saturday night in the Jags first pre-season game. We will see. The Jaguars are getting a new stadium in 2028. The Jaguars owner has publicly put some pressure on this team in 2024. Let’s see how Doug and Press respond.

Heat Meter - 7

10. Will Levis - When you aren’t drafted in the first round, you don’t have the same type of rope other QBs get. I think the same applies for Levis here. Sure, the Titans lost Derrick Henry to the Ravens this off-season, but they gained Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley. The pieces are there. The Titans defense and offensive line still are a work in progress to be nice, but I think Levis needs to show some consistency in 2024 to keep the job in 25.

Heat Meter - 5

NFC South

11. Bryce Young - This is simply because of how Bryce was in 2023. But, to the Panthers credit, they cleaned house and brought in a new Head Coach and new weapons to help Young. The offensive line is still awful, but as long as Young shows progression in 2024, there shouldn’t be an issue here. I mean, he can’t be that bad again. Right?

Heat Meter - 2

12. Derek Carr/Dennis Allen - These two go hand in hand. The Saints were hoping to come back to relevance when they signed Carr last off-season, but the reality is they have sunk back to irrelevance. Derek Carr and the Saints offense was pathetic last year. I remember Dennis Allen’s first run as a Head Coach and it wasn’t pretty. I was flabbergasted when he got the job in New Orleans and he’s done absolutely nothing to make me change my mind. New Orleans defense will keep them in games, but if Carr doesn’t lift this offense in 2024, he will most likely be gone. Keep an eye on Spencer Rattler. As for Allen, his seat is probably hot on the level of Robert Saleh and Mike McCarthy.

Heat Meter - 8

AFC West

As much as I want to put Harbaugh on here, the fact is he’s on his first year of remaking that roster. Payton reset himself with drafting Nix, and Pierce is a first time head coach. No pressure in the West. Good job guys.

NFC West

13. San Francisco 49ers - The time is now. What is it, 4 NFC title games? Two Super Bowl losses to the Chiefs? San Francisco is the most complete team in the NFL from top to bottom. Sure, Kansas City has the best player in the world. But the 49ers are loaded at each and every spot. As long as San Fran is going to NFC Championships and Super Bowls, no one is getting fired. But internally, the pressure is real. They know they have what it takes to win. They know they should’ve probably won already. Some guys are getting older. Trent Williams, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey to name a couple. We spoke about the internal clock getting louder and louder. Its ringing in the ears of the 49er faithful.

Heat Meter - 9

Observations From Divisional Weekend

1. Stefon Diggs is no longer an Elite NFL Receiver.

Did you know that since October 15th Diggs hasn’t recorded a 100 yard game? There was a lot of chatter before the season that Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo, and while he got off to a solid start this season personally, he has been a shell of himself for 3/4 of the season. It all culminated on Sunday when Diggs caught 3 balls for 21 yards in the divisional loss to Kansas City. He had the biggest drop of the game, a beautiful throw by Josh Allen in the most critical point in the game slipped through his fingers. Now it has been reported that Diggs does not want out of Buffalo and is happy with his role, but I think there is something more important to decipher here. The days of Stefon Diggs being an elite receiver are over. He will continue to have nice games, sure, but the dominant performances? I think they are gone. Next season Dalton Kincaid will be this teams leading receiver. You can book that. Diggs may want Buffalo, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t want Diggs.

2. Isiah Pacheco is the most important player on the Chiefs

If Sunday wasn’t an indicator, I don’t know if you will ever get on board. The Chiefs can’t operate any longer as a pass, pass, pass team. They don’t have the horses on the outside (although Rice is coming along nicely). Mahomes only attempted 23 passes Sunday. Pacheco had 16 touches and averaged 6.5 YPC. He is the engine. I whole heartedly believe that if Pacheco was held in check Sunday, the Bills would’ve won. And the same will go for the AFC title game. It will be interesting to see, as Andy Reid has never really leaned on the run during his head coaching career, but if Sunday was any indication, he may be wavering a little. I also love the way Pacheco runs more than I think any other back I’ve ever seen.

3. The Lions will miss their home field advantage on Sunday.

If you were in the camp that home field advantage didn’t matter in the NFL, then you must’ve not watched the Lions two home playoff games. I can’t even begin to count how many pre-snap penalties the Bucs had during this game, but it killed them multiple times. And how many free runners did the Lions defense have? You think that was all Baker? I’m sure communicating during the game was tough. The Lions definitely got some help from their fans, and rightly so, but Sunday will present an even bigger test - doing it away from Ford Field. It has been a storybook season so far, but now the stadium will be against Detroit on Sunday - I will really be paying attention as to how that affects Detroit early on.

4. The Buccaneers do not need to re-sign Baker Mayfield if the price is too steep; their roster is good.

We easily forget how good the Bucs roster was when Brady got their three years ago. That was a “win-now” team. When Brady left last season, the Bucs brought back most of their players, but everyone (myself included) thought they were going to be one of the worst teams in football because Brady was gone. Mayfield came in and had a wonderful season, but lets not pretend the talent on this team is dire - Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Cade Otton on offense is nothing to sneeze. And the defense isn’t bad either. There are some lifers on that defense including Shaw Barrett and Lavonte David. Now I will put some stock into Dave Canales possibly leaving, but if returns, I say vehemently - The Bucs do not need to overpay for Baker Mayfield. If you don’t think that the Bucs can do this with a Tyrod Taylor, a Gardner Minshew or even maybe grab Russell Wilson and/or Daniel Jones via trade, then I think you’re kidding yourself. If Baker is in the right range, then yes, sign him. But if he’s asking for obscene money, move on.

5. The Packers will be better next season simply because Joe Barry is gone.

Jordan Love was good this year. He was very good this year. Sure, his last throw was ridiculous and very Brett Favre-esque, but this Packers team is on the right track. Matt LaFleur is a good coach. We got to see what life is with Aaron Jones being the featured guy (and its really good!) And I like the collection of receivers they have. But this team was 9-8 because their defensive scheme was garbage. Now they have the ability to go out and get a young, modern defensive mind to mold these guys. Its seems like Jaire Alexander will be gone, and he will be replaced, but its bad news for the Vikings and Bears. The Pack is here to stay, and so is Love. If the defense can get better, which it will, this team will battle for a division crown next year.

6. The 49ers are a machine…literally.

Hear me out. When you use a machine and everything works, its intended use is always exactly what its supposed to be. However, when there is a malfunction, everything goes awry. This is exactly what happened on Saturday night after Deebo Samuel got hurt. San Francisco looked like a different team. The Niners put this team together very particularly and it shows. This team isn’t super deep, so any big injuries I feel like will derail their season. Brock Purdy was pedestrian AT BEST on Saturday, and he will need to be much better this weekend. Lets not forget when this team was missing Samuel and Trent Williams in the middle of the season they went 0-3. If Samuel is forced to miss Sunday’s game, I think San Francisco will struggle. If Samuel plays, I think they win.

7. The Ravens are the most complete team in the field.

This shouldn’t shock anyone, but it was just confirmed this weekend. The Ravens can beat you a multitude of ways. They have the most dynamic quarterback in the league, they run the ball effectively, their defense is fantastic, and they have the best kicker to ever live. Where is the weakness? The only touchdown they gave up Saturday was on a punt return, and if you think John Harbaugh won’t have that cleaned up you’re crazy. This team made CJ Stroud - the Offensive ROY a wet blanket. It was maybe the most blah Stroud has looked all year. Its funny how these things work out - if the Ravens want to win the Super Bowl, they will have to dethrone the king, who always seems to find ways to win. Sunday will be an excellent matchup.

8. CJ Stroud is fantastic, but the Texans will be the latest worst to first team to miss the playoffs the following year.

I know this will get me in a lot of trouble, but here me out. Dating back to 2019, there have been four teams that went from either worst to first or first to worst in back to back season. Those teams are the Washington Commanders (2020-2021), the Jacksonville Jaguars (2022-2023) the Minnesota Vikings (2022-2023), and the Cincinnati Bengals (2022-2023). The Texans had the benefit of playing a last place schedule and the NFC South. Next year, things aren’t so easy. Next year, they have to play the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens along with the Dallas Cowboys the NFC North (Lions, Packers) and the AFC East (Jets, Dolphins). That schedule alone is a gauntlet. It was proven Saturday the Texans are a young team. And it is imperative that Bobby Slowik stays in Houston. But we have seen too many times how the schedule is meant for parity, and this is the latest example. The Jaguars and Colts will have significantly easier schedules than Houston, so we will find out what his team really is next season.