Observations From Divisional Weekend
Stefon Diggs is no longer an Elite NFL Receiver.
Did you know that since October 15th Diggs hasn’t recorded a 100 yard game? There was a lot of chatter before the season that Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo, and while he got off to a solid start this season personally, he has been a shell of himself for 3/4 of the season. It all culminated on Sunday when Diggs caught 3 balls for 21 yards in the divisional loss to Kansas City. He had the biggest drop of the game, a beautiful throw by Josh Allen in the most critical point in the game slipped through his fingers. Now it has been reported that Diggs does not want out of Buffalo and is happy with his role, but I think there is something more important to decipher here. The days of Stefon Diggs being an elite receiver are over. He will continue to have nice games, sure, but the dominant performances? I think they are gone. Next season Dalton Kincaid will be this teams leading receiver. You can book that. Diggs may want Buffalo, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t want Diggs.
2. Isiah Pacheco is the most important player on the Chiefs
If Sunday wasn’t an indicator, I don’t know if you will ever get on board. The Chiefs can’t operate any longer as a pass, pass, pass team. They don’t have the horses on the outside (although Rice is coming along nicely). Mahomes only attempted 23 passes Sunday. Pacheco had 16 touches and averaged 6.5 YPC. He is the engine. I whole heartedly believe that if Pacheco was held in check Sunday, the Bills would’ve won. And the same will go for the AFC title game. It will be interesting to see, as Andy Reid has never really leaned on the run during his head coaching career, but if Sunday was any indication, he may be wavering a little. I also love the way Pacheco runs more than I think any other back I’ve ever seen.
3. The Lions will miss their home field advantage on Sunday.
If you were in the camp that home field advantage didn’t matter in the NFL, then you must’ve not watched the Lions two home playoff games. I can’t even begin to count how many pre-snap penalties the Bucs had during this game, but it killed them multiple times. And how many free runners did the Lions defense have? You think that was all Baker? I’m sure communicating during the game was tough. The Lions definitely got some help from their fans, and rightly so, but Sunday will present an even bigger test - doing it away from Ford Field. It has been a storybook season so far, but now the stadium will be against Detroit on Sunday - I will really be paying attention as to how that affects Detroit early on.
4. The Buccaneers do not need to re-sign Baker Mayfield if the price is too steep; their roster is good.
We easily forget how good the Bucs roster was when Brady got their three years ago. That was a “win-now” team. When Brady left last season, the Bucs brought back most of their players, but everyone (myself included) thought they were going to be one of the worst teams in football because Brady was gone. Mayfield came in and had a wonderful season, but lets not pretend the talent on this team is dire - Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Cade Otton on offense is nothing to sneeze. And the defense isn’t bad either. There are some lifers on that defense including Shaw Barrett and Lavonte David. Now I will put some stock into Dave Canales possibly leaving, but if returns, I say vehemently - The Bucs do not need to overpay for Baker Mayfield. If you don’t think that the Bucs can do this with a Tyrod Taylor, a Gardner Minshew or even maybe grab Russell Wilson and/or Daniel Jones via trade, then I think you’re kidding yourself. If Baker is in the right range, then yes, sign him. But if he’s asking for obscene money, move on.
5. The Packers will be better next season simply because Joe Barry is gone.
Jordan Love was good this year. He was very good this year. Sure, his last throw was ridiculous and very Brett Favre-esque, but this Packers team is on the right track. Matt LaFleur is a good coach. We got to see what life is with Aaron Jones being the featured guy (and its really good!) And I like the collection of receivers they have. But this team was 9-8 because their defensive scheme was garbage. Now they have the ability to go out and get a young, modern defensive mind to mold these guys. Its seems like Jaire Alexander will be gone, and he will be replaced, but its bad news for the Vikings and Bears. The Pack is here to stay, and so is Love. If the defense can get better, which it will, this team will battle for a division crown next year.
6. The 49ers are a machine…literally.
Hear me out. When you use a machine and everything works, its intended use is always exactly what its supposed to be. However, when there is a malfunction, everything goes awry. This is exactly what happened on Saturday night after Deebo Samuel got hurt. San Francisco looked like a different team. The Niners put this team together very particularly and it shows. This team isn’t super deep, so any big injuries I feel like will derail their season. Brock Purdy was pedestrian AT BEST on Saturday, and he will need to be much better this weekend. Lets not forget when this team was missing Samuel and Trent Williams in the middle of the season they went 0-3. If Samuel is forced to miss Sunday’s game, I think San Francisco will struggle. If Samuel plays, I think they win.
7. The Ravens are the most complete team in the field.
This shouldn’t shock anyone, but it was just confirmed this weekend. The Ravens can beat you a multitude of ways. They have the most dynamic quarterback in the league, they run the ball effectively, their defense is fantastic, and they have the best kicker to ever live. Where is the weakness? The only touchdown they gave up Saturday was on a punt return, and if you think John Harbaugh won’t have that cleaned up you’re crazy. This team made CJ Stroud - the Offensive ROY a wet blanket. It was maybe the most blah Stroud has looked all year. Its funny how these things work out - if the Ravens want to win the Super Bowl, they will have to dethrone the king, who always seems to find ways to win. Sunday will be an excellent matchup.
8. CJ Stroud is fantastic, but the Texans will be the latest worst to first team to miss the playoffs the following year.
I know this will get me in a lot of trouble, but here me out. Dating back to 2019, there have been four teams that went from either worst to first or first to worst in back to back season. Those teams are the Washington Commanders (2020-2021), the Jacksonville Jaguars (2022-2023) the Minnesota Vikings (2022-2023), and the Cincinnati Bengals (2022-2023). The Texans had the benefit of playing a last place schedule and the NFC South. Next year, things aren’t so easy. Next year, they have to play the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens along with the Dallas Cowboys the NFC North (Lions, Packers) and the AFC East (Jets, Dolphins). That schedule alone is a gauntlet. It was proven Saturday the Texans are a young team. And it is imperative that Bobby Slowik stays in Houston. But we have seen too many times how the schedule is meant for parity, and this is the latest example. The Jaguars and Colts will have significantly easier schedules than Houston, so we will find out what his team really is next season.
