50 NFL Observations
We are big into the “take” world in sports media these days. You have shows such as First Take, First Things First. You HAD Undisputed until that got cancelled. Its just the way of the world. With Week 9 officially over, the season is halfway done. Now while we aren’t into the “take” industry, it is ok to make smart observations about what we’ve seen so far during the year. Each season has their surprises and disappointments, and this season is like no other. The worst to first is alive and well in multiple scenarios. The MVP conversation is hot. So much to discuss. In no particular order, here we go…
We are big into the “take” world in sports media these days. You have shows such as First Take, First Things First. You HAD Undisputed until that got cancelled. Its just the way of the world. With Week 9 officially over, the season is halfway done. Now while we aren’t into the “take” industry, it is ok to make smart observations about what we’ve seen so far during the year. Each season has their surprises and disappointments, and this season is like no other. The worst to first is alive and well in multiple scenarios. The MVP conversation is hot. So much to discuss. In no particular order, here we go…
Getting Rid of Stefon Diggs was the perfect medicine for the Buffalo Bills - Who knew that getting rid of a guy who demanded the football would lead to Josh Allen having the fewest turnovers since he’s been in the NFL?
Turns out Coaching Matters for Rookie QBs - the proof is in pudding. Look at Jayden Daniels. Then look at Caleb Williams. Bo Nix has had more “moments” so far in the NFL than Williams. The difference is clear. Matt Eberflus is a waste of space while Quinn and Payton know what they’re doing.
The Kansas City Chiefs three-peat will run through their defense - It truly doesn’t matter that the Chiefs got Hopkins. It doesn’t matter that Pacheco is coming back. Unless your blind, you will understand that the Chiefs offense is missing something. And I don’t think the fix is coming this season. And that’s ok. Their defense has been their rock this year. And that’s after losing Sneed.
The Arizona Cardinals are dangerous - This is the team that can come up from behind and knock teams off the horse. The Cardinals were expected to be awful this year, and they are currently in the NFC West lead through nine weeks. Who saw that coming? The best part. The offense hasn’t lit the world on fire yet. Kyler hasn’t been amazing, and MHJ is still finding his way. Wait for December…
Jayden Daniels is more Lamar Jackson than RG3 - Yes. You are watching Lamar lite in Washington. Daniels has been electric from Week 2 on, and the Commanders are 7-2! He made another brilliant pass to ice the game against the Giants last week. I can’t wait for this team to play Philadelphia. Speaking of…
The Eagles record is good, but something is missing - Yes, they’ve won 4 in a row now. Hurts has been way better the last 4 games than the first four games. But if you watch this team consistently, they just don’t have the it factor that some of these other teams have. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles make a splash at the trade deadline.
Zac Taylor is on the hot seat - No one is talking about it. Not yet anyway. But the Bengals are 4-5. This is a make or break year for them. Joe Burrow is having his best season since their Super Bowl year. If Cincinnati doesn’t capitalize on this, Taylor might be the surprise fire at the end of the season.
The Atlanta Falcons are the second best team in the NFC - Have you noticed the Falcons are 6-3? Many people may not have. They just got done dismantling the Cowboys and are in firm position in the NFC South with two wins over Tampa Bay already. Kirk Cousins has remedied the offense. Bijan is being used properly. London has taken a step. After Detroit, there is a mosh pit for the best challengers are. Don’t look now but…
Don’t let TNF fool you; The New York Jets season is over - does anyone really believe the Jets are going to run the table with an interim head coach? Their remaining schedule includes Arizona, Miami (2x), the LA Rams and Buffalo. You’re telling me you don’t see two losses there. Sure, Miami is 2-6, but they just took Buffalo to the final seconds in Buffalo. The Rams are healthy, Arizona is good. I didn’t mention Indy and Seattle who can screw around and decide they wanna be good on a Sunday. Its not happening folks.
The Texans are only 6-3 because of the division they play in - Look at the numbers. Houston has not played up to snuff this year. This team was exciting and fun last year. They seem very tight this year. The AFC South is a dumpster fire. They’re taking advantage of it. They are 3-0 in the division and haven’t played Tennessee yet! I wouldn’t be surprised if they got walloped in the Wild Card Round this year.
Zero Offensive Creativity is getting Coaches Fired - Look what’s happened already; Robert Saleh and Dennis Allen have been let go. Two of the lamest offenses in the NFL. The Raiders fired their offensive staff. Lame. Who else runs some truly pathetic offensive schemes. The Jaguars, for one. Bears another. And the Dallas Cowboys. Thus, to my next point…
Mike McCarthy has lost the Cowboy locker room - This isn’t hard to tell. Dak Prescott was caught saying “we suck” Sunday in Atlanta. The clock is ticking, but make no mistake; McCarthy will be fired at seasons end. Are we taking bets on how much money Jerry throws Belichick’s way?
Drafting Project Rookies in Round 1 of the NFL Draft continues to be a heinous decision - The latest culprit - Anthony Richardson. He was recently benched in favor of Joe Flacco. Other project QBs who have flamed out include Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, and soon to be Daniel Jones. Will Levis was taken at the top of the second round and has already been benched. When will these GMs learn?
Sam Darnold has started the regression - Darnold lit the world on fire. And everyone is rooting for him. But, the poor decision making is starting to creep back up. Now the Vikings won’t turn anywhere else (they’re 6-2), but there where early conversations in Minnesota about what to do next season if this continued. There is no discussion. Go to JJ.
The discourse around Mike Tomlin needs to end - I don’t care that Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game in half a decade or so. This man has never had a losing season. He continues to take middling rosters and put them in contention every year. He knew exactly what he was doing when he traded for Russ. When everyone was screaming at him for benching Fields (except for me of course), Russ came in and the offense was noticeably better. The Steelers are the dark horse in the AFC.
Derrick Henry will challenge the rushing touchdown record - I said it before the season began as a bold prediction. Right now, Henry has 11. If he gets one every game the rest of the year that’s 19. But you know that Henry will have one monster game where he goes for 4 scores. He won’t beat the record, but him finishing with 21-23 is absolutely in play.
Jacksonville loves hiding behind the mask of their NFL counterpart - If it wasn’t for the Panthers and David Tepper, the spotlight would be on how horribly run the Jaguars are. Trent Baalke and Doug Peterson have gone from 9-8 (and were 2-6 at one point that season) to 9-8 again (no improvement) and now 2-7 through 9 games. The players brought in this offseason haven’t contributed at all (Gabe Davis, Ronald Darby, Darnell Savage, Erik Armstead) amongst others. Shad Khan said this was the “best Jaguars team ever assembled.” Go figure.
There’s nothing wrong with Patrick Mahomes - It doesn’t matter that he isn’t throwing TD passes. He will make amazing plays in December and January and we will forget.
This Baker Mayfield is here to stay - what else needs to be said? Baker is laser focused and before his two stud receivers got hurt, he was playing at a top five level. The Bucs found a hidden gem and the Bake show will live on in Tampa for some time.
Seattle is wasting time with Geno - I’m penciling in the Seahawks to cash in their remaining chips from the Russ trade this off-season to get into the top 5 of the NFL Draft. Geno was a nice story, but its run its course. The INT in the end zone Sunday was horrendous. Seattle isn’t going anywhere with him. Watch out for them this off-season.
The Dolphins need to be blown the F*** up - This team isn’t going anywhere currently constructed. They just aren’t. Miami is just playing house NFL style right now. This team was supposed to challenge not only Buffalo, but KC for an AFC crown. Even with Tua back, they lost to Arizona at home and Buffalo AGAIN. Massive, sweeping changes need to be done in Miami if they want to truly compete.
Lamar becomes a Top 10 All-Time QB with a 3rd MVP - Do you know how many people have won the MVP award three times? Do you? I’ll tell you. Four. Those names? Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre and Tom Brady. That’s it. That’s the list. Jackson would go into uncharted waters with a 3rd MVP, which is COMPLETELY in play.
Dan Campbell might be a unanimous COTY winner - We do understand what the DETROIT LIONS are doing is amazing right? They’ve scored 28 touchdowns the last six weeks and have 24 incompletions. Let that sink in. They run, they pass, they sack, they create turnovers. They go for it on 4th down. Unanimous.
NFL Officiating continues to be a disaster - Nothing really needs to be said here. Every week its something else.
The NY Giants are officially in “QB Away” territory - The pieces are there. Nabers is a stud. Tracy is very good. The defensive line is a problem. If the Giants can get a QB and fix their secondary, I think they may be the next team to come up.
The Titans are in the worst position of any team in the NFL - They put their bags into Will Levis and that failed. The offensive line is dreadful. Their prized acquisition of the off-season L’Jarius Sneed has been a disaster. Calvin Ridley has been…not good. Hopkins is gone. The offensive is still a mess. They’re going to be starting over again next season. Not good at all.
The Rams can run the table - When healthy, the Rams are still a good team. The defense is super underrated, and they can strike at any time on offense. The spark from the Super Bowl team is still there…
I haven’t mentioned the 49ers yet - And there’s a reason. They haven’t been good. They haven’t been bad. Are they that reliant on CMC? We will find out.
TJ Watt is in the conversation for the best player in the sport - Is there a player more valuable? Seriously. This dude is just it. Wrecks every game and does what’s needed to win. He should be in the top 3 when the NFL releases their Top 100 next offseason.
Brian Thomas Jr. is the next big WR - Talk about always open? I didn’t see this coming, and I don’t think anyone else did either. BTJ is fast, runs great routes, and catches damn near everything. Jags got a star on their hands.
And Quinyon Mitchell is the next Jalen Ramsey - Mitchell was highly touted out of Toledo. He’s been everything and then some since been drafted. He gets put on the top receivers every week and just does damage. Excellent rookie.
DeShaun Watson may never play again - And he really doesn’t deserve too, but color me shocked if at some point in the off-season the Browns and Watson mutually agree to part ways and void most of the contract and maybe pay it under the table. Cleveland doesn’t want him back. And the NFL always gets their way.
The Green Bay Packers are overrated - Yes, I said it. The Pack are severely overrated. They had an opportunity Sunday to tell the Lions that they weren’t all that. At home. In bad weather. In Detroits first non-dome game. And they got stomped. Jordan Love hasn’t been good this season. Bad turnovers. They may miss the playoffs entirely.
Jim Harbaugh - Yes, Jim Harbaugh. Just ask yourself one question. Have the Chargers “Chargered” once this season?
The Commanders are an EDGE rusher away - I expect Washington to be active come deadline time. They need another pass rusher. You can’t squander opportunities when they come. There’s a realistic possibility this team can make a run to the NFC title game. Need to pounce.
Alvin Kamara should be traded, but won’t be - This is the easiest thing to decipher. Kamara has no business being in NOLA this year. The Saints are non competitive and Kamara is playing at a high level. They just fired Dennis Allen. But Kamara is the face of the Saints. If they really want to pursue the overhaul, they would trade him. But they won’t.
There may be up to 10 HC openings come “Black Monday” in January - We already have the Jets and the Saints. Add in the following guarantees; Jaguars, Bears, Raiders, Cowboys. That’s six. I can also see the following team moving on if things don’t swing their way: Bengals, Eagles, Browns and Patriots. I think Mayo and Pierce have downright horrible this year.
There will be six new playoff team this season - Mark em down: Bengals (yup!), Chargers, Commanders, Vikings, Falcons and Cardinals!
The 49ers will miss the playoffs - This will be the shocker of 2024.
Josh Allen will lead the Bills to the Number 1 seed and get his first MVP - it is written.
The NFL has had a decrease in quality this year - its ok to say it. The play this year in the league has been subpar. And they need to figure it out. The lack of practices in July and August, coupled with no one playing int he preseason has brought this on. The product isn’t as good. Listen to Tom Brady.
And the ratings in the Playoffs will reflect that - Call this a hunch.
The AFC Playoff teams will be: (1) Bills, (2) Chiefs, (3) Ravens, (4) Texans, (5) Steelers, (6) Chargers, (7) Bengals
The NFC Playoff Teams will be: (1) Lions, (2) Falcons, (3) Eagles, (4) Rams, (5) Commanders, (6) Vikings, (7) Cardinals
Going into the Playoffs, the Lions will be the consensus favorites to win the Super Bowl - I never thought I’d type those words when I was 18.
Cincinnati will be the hottest team going into the playoffs and take out the Chiefs on wild card weekend; which sets up a Burrow and Allen showdown in Buffalo - We need some fresh blood in the AFC. Lets talk it into existence!
AFC Title Game: (3) Ravens @ (1) Bills - The top two QBs in the MVP conversation will square off. It will be both Allen and Jackson’s second time in the title game, with both of their losses the first time coming from Mahomes.
NFC Title Game: (2) Falcons @ (1) Lions - I think these two teams are pound for pound the best in the NFC. I almost put Philly here, but they have too much inconsistency for me.
Super Bowl 59 will feature two franchises that have never hoisted a Lombardi Trophy - As good as the Falcons are, the Lions are the clear favorites in the NFC. Hell they might even coast to the Super Bowl. Detroit learns from their mistakes in last years title game, and this one is at home. In the AFC, you need to be able to withstand four quarters. I don’t think Baltimore did enough in the off-season, and their defense has been suspect. Allen and the Bills have been a complete team this year. And the fact they got embarrassed by Baltimore in the regular season is in the back of their heads. Bills and Lions Super Bowl!
The long, long wait is over…for the Lions.
Observations From Divisional Weekend
Did you know that since October 15th Diggs hasn’t recorded a 100 yard game? There was a lot of chatter before the season that Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo, and while he got off to a solid start this season personally, he has been a shell of himself for 3/4 of the season. It all culminated on Sunday when Diggs caught 3 balls for 21 yards in the divisional loss to Kansas City. He had the biggest drop of the game, a beautiful throw by Josh Allen in the most critical point in the game slipped through his fingers. Now it has been reported that Diggs does not want out of Buffalo and is happy with his role, but I think there is something more important to decipher here. The days of Stefon Diggs being an elite receiver are over.
Stefon Diggs is no longer an Elite NFL Receiver.
Did you know that since October 15th Diggs hasn’t recorded a 100 yard game? There was a lot of chatter before the season that Diggs was unhappy in Buffalo, and while he got off to a solid start this season personally, he has been a shell of himself for 3/4 of the season. It all culminated on Sunday when Diggs caught 3 balls for 21 yards in the divisional loss to Kansas City. He had the biggest drop of the game, a beautiful throw by Josh Allen in the most critical point in the game slipped through his fingers. Now it has been reported that Diggs does not want out of Buffalo and is happy with his role, but I think there is something more important to decipher here. The days of Stefon Diggs being an elite receiver are over. He will continue to have nice games, sure, but the dominant performances? I think they are gone. Next season Dalton Kincaid will be this teams leading receiver. You can book that. Diggs may want Buffalo, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t want Diggs.
2. Isiah Pacheco is the most important player on the Chiefs
If Sunday wasn’t an indicator, I don’t know if you will ever get on board. The Chiefs can’t operate any longer as a pass, pass, pass team. They don’t have the horses on the outside (although Rice is coming along nicely). Mahomes only attempted 23 passes Sunday. Pacheco had 16 touches and averaged 6.5 YPC. He is the engine. I whole heartedly believe that if Pacheco was held in check Sunday, the Bills would’ve won. And the same will go for the AFC title game. It will be interesting to see, as Andy Reid has never really leaned on the run during his head coaching career, but if Sunday was any indication, he may be wavering a little. I also love the way Pacheco runs more than I think any other back I’ve ever seen.
3. The Lions will miss their home field advantage on Sunday.
If you were in the camp that home field advantage didn’t matter in the NFL, then you must’ve not watched the Lions two home playoff games. I can’t even begin to count how many pre-snap penalties the Bucs had during this game, but it killed them multiple times. And how many free runners did the Lions defense have? You think that was all Baker? I’m sure communicating during the game was tough. The Lions definitely got some help from their fans, and rightly so, but Sunday will present an even bigger test - doing it away from Ford Field. It has been a storybook season so far, but now the stadium will be against Detroit on Sunday - I will really be paying attention as to how that affects Detroit early on.
4. The Buccaneers do not need to re-sign Baker Mayfield if the price is too steep; their roster is good.
We easily forget how good the Bucs roster was when Brady got their three years ago. That was a “win-now” team. When Brady left last season, the Bucs brought back most of their players, but everyone (myself included) thought they were going to be one of the worst teams in football because Brady was gone. Mayfield came in and had a wonderful season, but lets not pretend the talent on this team is dire - Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Cade Otton on offense is nothing to sneeze. And the defense isn’t bad either. There are some lifers on that defense including Shaw Barrett and Lavonte David. Now I will put some stock into Dave Canales possibly leaving, but if returns, I say vehemently - The Bucs do not need to overpay for Baker Mayfield. If you don’t think that the Bucs can do this with a Tyrod Taylor, a Gardner Minshew or even maybe grab Russell Wilson and/or Daniel Jones via trade, then I think you’re kidding yourself. If Baker is in the right range, then yes, sign him. But if he’s asking for obscene money, move on.
5. The Packers will be better next season simply because Joe Barry is gone.
Jordan Love was good this year. He was very good this year. Sure, his last throw was ridiculous and very Brett Favre-esque, but this Packers team is on the right track. Matt LaFleur is a good coach. We got to see what life is with Aaron Jones being the featured guy (and its really good!) And I like the collection of receivers they have. But this team was 9-8 because their defensive scheme was garbage. Now they have the ability to go out and get a young, modern defensive mind to mold these guys. Its seems like Jaire Alexander will be gone, and he will be replaced, but its bad news for the Vikings and Bears. The Pack is here to stay, and so is Love. If the defense can get better, which it will, this team will battle for a division crown next year.
6. The 49ers are a machine…literally.
Hear me out. When you use a machine and everything works, its intended use is always exactly what its supposed to be. However, when there is a malfunction, everything goes awry. This is exactly what happened on Saturday night after Deebo Samuel got hurt. San Francisco looked like a different team. The Niners put this team together very particularly and it shows. This team isn’t super deep, so any big injuries I feel like will derail their season. Brock Purdy was pedestrian AT BEST on Saturday, and he will need to be much better this weekend. Lets not forget when this team was missing Samuel and Trent Williams in the middle of the season they went 0-3. If Samuel is forced to miss Sunday’s game, I think San Francisco will struggle. If Samuel plays, I think they win.
7. The Ravens are the most complete team in the field.
This shouldn’t shock anyone, but it was just confirmed this weekend. The Ravens can beat you a multitude of ways. They have the most dynamic quarterback in the league, they run the ball effectively, their defense is fantastic, and they have the best kicker to ever live. Where is the weakness? The only touchdown they gave up Saturday was on a punt return, and if you think John Harbaugh won’t have that cleaned up you’re crazy. This team made CJ Stroud - the Offensive ROY a wet blanket. It was maybe the most blah Stroud has looked all year. Its funny how these things work out - if the Ravens want to win the Super Bowl, they will have to dethrone the king, who always seems to find ways to win. Sunday will be an excellent matchup.
8. CJ Stroud is fantastic, but the Texans will be the latest worst to first team to miss the playoffs the following year.
I know this will get me in a lot of trouble, but here me out. Dating back to 2019, there have been four teams that went from either worst to first or first to worst in back to back season. Those teams are the Washington Commanders (2020-2021), the Jacksonville Jaguars (2022-2023) the Minnesota Vikings (2022-2023), and the Cincinnati Bengals (2022-2023). The Texans had the benefit of playing a last place schedule and the NFC South. Next year, things aren’t so easy. Next year, they have to play the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens along with the Dallas Cowboys the NFC North (Lions, Packers) and the AFC East (Jets, Dolphins). That schedule alone is a gauntlet. It was proven Saturday the Texans are a young team. And it is imperative that Bobby Slowik stays in Houston. But we have seen too many times how the schedule is meant for parity, and this is the latest example. The Jaguars and Colts will have significantly easier schedules than Houston, so we will find out what his team really is next season.