Week 11 NFL Picks

Thanksgiving is coming up! and when we all gather around the table, we usually share what we are thankful for. Some people mention they are thankful for family, friends, their kids etc. I am thankful for legalized gambling int he tri-state area. So for the next two weeks, I will be stuffing my face watching my bets hit harmoniously. Let’s get right to it!

GAME PICKS!!!

Cowboys (-10.5) @ Panthers

Steelers (+2.5) @ Browns

Chargers (-3) @ Packers

All roadies this week. I should’ve taken the Cowboys last week, but was afraid of the spread. I’m not backing down this week. The Cowboys should win this game comfortably. As for Pittsburgh, they should feast against a rookie QB in DTR. This game will be close because the Steelers offense is porous, but I think the defense can carry this one. And for the Chargers, a tough loss to Detroit last week - they pick themselves back up this week in a game they need to have over the Packers.

PROP

Austin Ekeler anytime TD (-150)

Travis Etienne anytime TD (-130)

Sam LaPorta (o46.5 receiving yards)

Week 8 NFL Picks

We are back! And we are looking for some sort of consistency in the NFL this year! Anything. Please God. It’s definitely been a struggle this year as we try to nail down who is what and what is who. You would like to think after seven weeks, we got it down pat. But in an effort to go undefeated, pour one out for all the people who went winless last week. Here’s to another week of hoping for the best.

THE PICKS!!!

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New England Patriots

Houston Texans (-3) @ Carolina Panthers

New York Giants (+3) vs. New York Jets

Betting FAQs

Q: Why the Ravens?

A: Baltimore finally looked the part while Arizona’s charm has completely worn off. Lamar and company will want to prove this isn’t a fluke. Will Kyler Murray play? Will he not play? it absolutely won’t matter.

Q: But Rich, The Patriots JUST beat the Bills!

A: I don’t care. The Dolphins just got smoked on SNF in Philadelphia in front of the nation. I don’t think Jesus Christ himself could stop the offense this week. Also, when is the last time New England won back to back games? That would be Weeks 9 and 11 of the 2022 season. Almost a year to the day.

Q: The Panthers won’t get their first win this weekend?

A: No, they won’t.

Q: How will the Giants block the Jets defensive line?

A: If the Giants get back Thomas and Schmitz, this can be an interesting game. Tyrod Taylor has brought the offense to life, and for as good as the Jets defense has been, they have gotten off to slow starts and been susceptible to the run all year. This can be a game where Tyrod actually uses his legs more than most. Wouldn’t be surprised at either result, but the Giants have played well for 2 weeks in a row now with only 1 win to show for it. They haven’t been world beators on offense, but their defense has only given up 21 points in two weeks.

Week 5 NFL Best Bets

After the disaster of Week 3, we are trending in the right direction going into Week 5. Last week we nailed 2/3 spreads while going with another 0 for on the props. We all hit slumps during the season. After a hot start, I’m facing a little adversity. But much like the best of the best in the NFL, I plan on making my comeback - here is your Week 5 slate:

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over Tennessee Titans

The Colts being a home dog to the Titans is a little weird considering how close their games have been this year. Jonathan Taylor is back. But a Titans team walks in that has been dominated and then dominated themselves in the previous two weeks. One thing to note here - the Colts struggled against DeShaun two weeks ago and his mobility. And the one thing that Anthony Richardson has done so far this season is be able to get out in space and run the football. Couple that with the fact that Harold Landry hasn’t been able to get off to the start he wanted to coming off his injury, and I like the Colts in a close one.

FAVORITE OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Minnesota Vikings

The Chiefs played a real good Jets defense last weekend, and it showed. Patrick. Mahomes got outplayed by Zach Wilson. That’s a fact. Are we betting on that happening two weeks in a row? There is something to Mahomes getting worked by elite defenses (which proves he’s human), but that is what the Minnesota Vikings don’t have. Last week was a good showing, but it was agains the only winless team in the league (Panthers). One of the biggest surprises in the NFL is the Chiefs defense, which is Top 5 right now. Who had Trent McDuffie vs. Justin Jefferson on their bingo card as matchup to watch? I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs to handle the Vikes.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions (-9.5) over Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are now the worst team in football after the Bears win Thursday night. And yes, the Lions are going to be missing Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown (most likely). The Panthers are so bad it doesn’t matter. Watch out for Aidan Hutchinson today as he might beat Carolina by himself. He really affected the game last week against the Packers and I expect him to do the same today vs. a young Bryce Young and ineffective Panthers offensive line. On the offensive side, the Lions get back Jameson Williams and it will be interesting to see who is the number one target with Amon-Ra not suiting up. Look out for Josh Reynolds and Sam Laporta.

PROP BETS

Lamar Jackson +140 anytime touchdown scorer (rushing)

James Conner -140 anytime touchdown scorer

Sam LaPorta o52.5 receiving yards

NFL Best Bets - Week 4

Let’s not talk about last week. If you lost money because of me, I apologize. But blame yourself for listening to me. This is redemption week.. Listen up winners, I got the picks to lock in if you want to cash out on the equivalent of an all inclusive trip Cancun!

Favorite of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Houston Texans

The Texans are coming off an upset that shocked most of the NFL. Stroud looks composed and polished. But what’s going to change from last week is the pressure the young QB will see. The edge presence of both Alex Highsmith, who ranked top 10 in pressure up until this week, and TJ Watt, is going to be a major difference maker. What the Steelers lack in secondary they make up for in their front seven. Stroud played with a clean pocket last week and I don’t think that’s going to be the same. The game will be closer than people think, but Pittsburgh is a better team.

Upset of the Week

Washington Commanders (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have been atop the NFC, but they look extremely different from last year. Their defense is a good as ever and they got a steal when they selected Jalen Carter in the draft. But there is a glaring contrast in their offense. Last year after 3 weeks, Hurts had almost 1000 passing yards and 7 total touchdowns. Through 3 weeks now, Hurts has eclipsed 200 passing yards just once and that was in week 3. The playcalling appears to be a little conservative compared to the previous season. With that being said, the Commanders in their first 2 weeks looked like a different offense. Bienemy has done wonders for Howell and those skill players. Albeit they got dominated by a top 5 Buffalo defense last week, they are going to bounce back this week. The Eagles gave up 20 to the patriots with subpar qb play from Mac.

Game of the Week

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) vs. New England Patriots

Everybody can lose a game - no team is perfect. This team goes only as far as Dak Prescott plays. Last week the Cowboys got embarrassed by the Alopecia Admiral Josh Dobbs. But going back to Dallas against a struggling patriots offense does not bode well for New England. Right now the defense is firing. Last week’s loss in my opinion was because of the mistakes Dak made. I expect Dak to take some accountability for his mistakes and atone for them by protecting the football and being composed. The Patriots have lost by 5 points or through both of their losses this year. When the Cowboys are prepared to make a statement, they MAKE A STATEMENT. This is that week. 

PROP PICKS

Courtland Sutton o58.5 receiving yards

Michael Pittman o60.5 receiving yards

TJ Hockenson +165 anytime touchdown

Week 3 NFL Best Bets

We are getting stronger and strong every week. Last week I went 3-0 in the spreads and 1/3 in the props. We are aiming for 100% this week. That’s the goal. If you were thinking about laying a parlay, this is the week to do so…

Favorite of the Week

Seattle Seahawks (-6) over Carolina Panthers

The combination of Seattle getting back on track last week and the fact that the Panthers don’t have their young rookie QB is a recipe for disaster. Add on top that this game is being played in Seattle, a very difficult place to play. Seattle’s offense should be able to keep this games at arm length for the entirety of the 60 minutes.

Double Favorite of the Week!!

Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

That’s right. No underdog this week. Have you looked at the schedule. Could be a nice Sunday to go out apple picking with your kids….OR you can watch the Dallas Cowboys cover the 12.5 line and demolish Arizona. The Dallas defense has been on another level the first two weeks. I don’t think anyone can block Micah Parsons. And while the injury to Trevon Diggs will hurt, I don’t think Arizona has enough playmakers to make it hurt. This game may be over by halftime.

Best Bet of the Week

Baltimore Ravens (-8) vs. Indianapolis Colts

My third favorite this week consists of another team taking on an injury riddled rookie QB squad. Yes, Gardner Minshew came in last week and led the Colts to a win…against Houston. The Ravens are a different animal and they are playing very well to start the year. We all know how good the Ravens start seasons. This is basically a touchdown spread and I see this game being a 10 point victory for Baltimore.

PROP BETS

Javonte Williams +120 anytime TD scorer

Jakobi Meyers +270 anytime TD scorer

Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 Passing Yards (-114)

While the Dolphin offense has gotten a lot of hype, their defense has still been leaky over the first couple of weeks. Javonte has been ok through the first two games, but I think this is the week he gets on the board. Meyers seemed to be Garoppolos favorite red-zone target in Week 1, and while he returns from a concussion this week, Mike Tomlin always does a good job taking away a team’s first option, so Meyers could score in this one. The Patrick Mahomes one….just do it.

Week 2 NFL Best Bets

We are back for Week 2. We did 50/50 last week as I went 1/3 on spread lines, but went 2/3 in the prop bets. Good to get the Week 1 jitters out of the way. Now that we’ve seen teams for a week, we can diagnose some tendencies and what teams like to do. Here’s to a better Week 2!

Favorite of the Week

Dolphins (-3) over Patriots

Miami’s offense was on a different speed than everyone else’s last weekend. While New England had a solid plan for the Eagles, I truly don’t know how you cover Tyreek Hill and his speed. The fins can also hit you with Waddle and Smythe if need be.

Upset of the Week

Cardinals (+6) over Giants

Was there something to do the Giants getting shutout 40-0? I’m not entirely sure, but what I do know is that both Andrew Thomas and Darren Waller are dealing with injuries while Arizona was surprisingly competitive last week in Washington.

Best Bet of the Week

Buccaneers (+2.5) over Bears

Consider me a non-believer in Chicago until they can prove it. Meanwhile, The Bucs defense reminded everyone they are still here. We also got vintage Baker in Minnesota. A. 2-0 start for Tampa Bay would be something that no one expected.

PROP BETS

Jamaal Williams (NO) anytime touchdown scorer (+125)

Tee Higgins (CIN) anytime touchdown scorer (+150)

Travis Etienne 115+ Rushing Yards

Carolina struggled with the Falcons run game last week, and New Orleans got the run game going in the second half. Expect them to stick with that on Monday. Higgins had 0 catches in Week 1, which means he might explode in Week 2. And while the Chiefs are getting Chris Jones back, I think he is on a snap count, and Etienne seemed to find his rhythm in the 4th quarter last week.

Week 1 NFL Best Bets

As part of the Perfect Spiral 2023 season, I, Richard Jones, will be giving you best bets each and every week during the NFL season. You may think that Week 1 in the NFL is very difficult to bet on, but it’s easier than you think if you follow the the signs. We know you all want to get straight to it, so lets go!

Favorite of the Week

Washington Commanders (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are starting a quarterback who has been with the team for less than a month. The Commanders have new found hope with a new ownership and have sold out the first game for the first time in forever. Dotson and McLaurin should feast while the Washington defensive line could give Arizona’s offensive line fits.

Underdog of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Here is a stat for you - the Steelers have a .650 winning percentage on opening weekend. Mike Tomlin has these guys prepared. Last season, the 49ers went on the road and lost to a Chicago Bears team that would win three games all year. While a week one loss doesn’t define your season, the mix of Purdy’s first game off the UCL injury plus traveling across the country bodes well for Pittsburgh.

Game I Love

Detroit Lions (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I usually don’t go against Mahomes, but the fact that Chris Jones and Travis Kelce are both unlikely to suit up changes things a bit. When Chris Jones is absent, the Chiefs are ranked 28th in defense and are in the bottom third of QB pressure rate. Missing Kelce takes away Mahomes top option in a game where he will have to incorporate new weapons into the offense. We already know the Lions will come ready to play, and With Jared Goff not having to worry as much with no Jones, I can see this being a field goal game.

Best Prop Bets for Week 1

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+120)

Aaron Jones anytime touchdown (+145)

Kenny Pickett OVER 207.5 passing yards (-114)

Simply put, the Patriots defense, although good, isn’t containing Hurts for four quarters. If the Packers want a chance to win, they will put the ball in Aaron Jones hands. And we already spoke about Pittsburgh and how they’re going to cover the spread. Pickett will be one of the main reasons.

Join me next week for my Week 1 recap and Week 2 best bets!